AUD interest rate forecasting

Hi all,

one of my trading strategies is aud carry trading, im not "buy and hold until margin call" trader so sometimes i think what to do and sometimes i close some positions here and there and to do this i use TA and i also try to "calculate" what is chance that RBA will hike/cut/remains its rate. I do not predict market : ) i play with probability of course ...

Until now i didnt find any site or blog or forum where someone posts his personal opinion about RBA rates, and i would like to ask you all, if you can advice me any good site with such infos. Im not interested in some clowns who never opened single lot cause there are plenty of such sites. I find useful some australian domestic websites, but news appears there randomly.

PS: if you would like to chat about aud carry trading here you go.

I am very thankful for any tips in advance and happy trading to you all.

Grrt

I'm looking forward to Wednesday quarterly inflation figures.
Not trying to predict anything but going by pure everyday observation, I've noticed significant increases in food prices compared to the second quarter, even bananas stayed above $11 a kilo throughout the whole three months, petrol and rents went up too while electronic and other imported goods were cheaper due to stronger Aussie.

Will wait till Monday to see what the final consensus is but I do expect inflation to stay elevated enough for the RBA to leave rate on hold on the 1. November.

Hence I'm holding my Aussie long from 9776 with SL at BE+20

In case of no cut in November, a pre-christmas cut is almost certain though.

Just my personally biased 2c

I don't think a cut in November is going to happen, not even sure a pre-christmas cut either. Few reasons: The core inflation is still quite "up there", local bank to euro debt is very little, previous mild RBA minutes was the least aggressive one etc....... Just keep on monitoring overnight swap rate and see how the market prices in the possibility.

That's true and sounds plausible knowing how the RBA is sensitive to inflation, however they're aware that a December 25 points cut would stimulate christmas spending and improve consumer confidence.
Also they will take into account that agricultural areas previously affected by natural disasters have almost fully recovered now and food prices are set to drop in the last quarter.

Who knows, I'm still betting on a December cut.

Edit: http://www.skynews.com.au/businessne...1&cId=Business

Hi all,

thanks for your opinions.

Makret sentimet is 1 or more cuts until dec, thats true, but RBA didnt clearly say if and if yes ... then how many cuts will be and when, so there is good situation because market awaits at least 1 cut.

I think that usualy if RBA says there will be cut ... they will cut rate soon. This is maybe only central bank whos "word" worth it .... another central banks say one and make another.

My personal opition is that in these ages there is stronger force there than RBA and its "Risk on" or "Risk off" so we have to be careful with this

sbf wrote
Just keep on monitoring overnight swap rate and see how the market prices in the possibility.

- i dont have good experiences with overnight swaps because they usualy react after decision ... check history and you should see ... but of course i check them occasionaly. I prefer Libor rates /3M, 6M/ right know they are little bit above current rate, thats good for carry trade, but of course its non 100%

Next thing is indicators ... like CPI, GDP, Employement ... i used to check these indicators but now i dont. Reason ? Like i wrote earlier ... if RBA wants to hike/cut rate they will tell us ... like when there was 3.00 % during worst crisis /year 2008/ ... i dont remember exact dates, but RBA said . there will be hike soon ... and they hiked in few months : )

gl in trading to you all

regards

G