Predicting or forecasting the market

How many of you trade by predicting or forecasting the market ? in other words how many of you trade what you think may happen ? and non-predictors what are your views on it>?

I don't try to predict the market.. Just trade what you see.

A funny question. You must always know what is ahead to win, no?

I use this one...There is newer version but is more expensive...I am happy with this model.

EVERYONE forecasts the market......EVERYONE with no exception.

but before we go into the reasons why i say that here is the definition.
although the definitions slightly vary, and in most dictionaries it is listed as a synonym. For the sake of this discussion we will go by wiktionay.org which is actually how i personally use the words.

Predictiontransitive) To state, or make something known in advance, especially using inference or special knowledge.
(transitive) To believe or hold to be true in advance; forehold; surmise.
How could I ever predict this could happen?
(intransitive) To foretell, foresee or prophesy.

forecast: To estimate how a condition will be in the future.
estimate future conditions
Noun
forecast (plural forecasts)
An estimation of a future condition.
A prediction of the weather.
What's the forecast for tomorrow?

If you are not comfortable with the word predict then Everyone who embarks upon trading, even high frequency machines forecast price movement even if for the next second, or the next month.

information is taken in and analysed, and inference is made and a position started BUY or SELL. To NOT PREDICT means you are entirely out of the market and not analyzing data. to put it more clearly

BUY= the expectation is to profit from appreciation of X currency over Y Currency
SELL= the prediction is a devaluation of X currency over Y currency

NOW how immutable are your views of the data with out taking into account incoming information recorded on the transaction record in front of you called a CHART, in my opinion is what differentiates the winners from the losers.

after being burned by the markets, we begin to realize nothing is certain, and the market is unpredictable, there is no secret formula. When we begin to make objective continuous observations, and more importantly work actively to diminish our risk, then things get better.

WUWWUW

If the above were a generalized chart of a certain something in the trading market... which way would you "forecast" or "predict" (defined meanings per thread slightly ignored) the next direction? Up or down?

The trouble with trading isn't that the market is unpredictable, as stated, it is that such motions are never quite so pretty, thus, in respect to trading, not always profitable when you make predictions... as the predictions aren't correct at the time you make them. That is, because, you end up with ugly images such as this. You have trouble forecasting the motion. Nevertheless, your prediction that you made is probably going to be true, the market will go up or down, as you forecast, just not when you forecast, and, sadly, probably not to the level you forecast either.

Everyone who sold the EUR/USD between 1.30 and 1.40 on the latest bull market did, in fact, predict correctly... that the price would go down into a profitable area. It just went up first, for all of those who didn't time perfectly, and had a little help from chance. Being a profitable trader is merely discovering a way to make sure when your predictions are off... with 1000 pips between (HAHA!), or a year of time, that you can make money.

Looking at the chart above one can make a prediction... the price will go up. That prediction will be correct. The reason you aren't buying without fear is that what if it goes down to 1.20 before it even starts going up again? Then, what happens if your prediction, that the price will go up, means going up from 1.20 to 1.30, and your purchase now is nothing but a .0023 gain? How can you fix this problem?

Predicting = Forecasting = Gambling!
Avoid thou!

Hi all,

Not a great frequenter of trading forums generally do my own thing using my proprietary system - came here looking for something specific.

Reading through some of the comments it strikes me that there are a fair number of traders who don't know that they don't know.

All we need to know is that after a consolidation the market will move - the question is which way - use the price and its proximity to good S&R levels - when it is at such level find a chart pattern - and a substantiating Indicator signal, and 8 out of 10 times you will be right. Price after all is the only non repainting indicator. Or am I wrong?

Traders make action - action makes volume - volume makes price move.

I don't at all.

I trade only whenever one of my two specific current set-ups appears.

One of them gives me about a 62% probability of winning the same amount as I lose the other 38% of the time, and the other one gives me a 50% chance of winning about 1.75 times as much as I lose the other 50% of the time.

I have my reliable "edge" and I simply take the opportunity as frequently as I can.

Absolutely no prediction or forecasting involved, and no emotional attachment to any individual result(s).

Yes, that's definitely "in other words" because those are very different words!

Make as many predictions as you want, watch price when it gets to the predicted area. Look for a reaction and go with it.

Do not trade predictions. It is a sure way to lose money.

My thoughts on the eurusd are that it will touch 1.30 in the asian session and then decline to 1.29 by the 31st Jan, followed by an explosive move to 1.36-1.37 area.

My thoughts are that the down cycle is over and the start of a new cycle is upon us, no idea if I am right but that is my prediction.

Best is to watch the movement of price at your points and look for a confirmation candle spining top etc, then trade the break of the candlein the direction you think its going.

Saif, how were you able to start this thread? I tried to start one of my own but was disallowed, because I need 4 referrals. I think I'll answer your question and start posting my WR's and WF's here. I know you won't mind.

I'm a chartist and forecaster. This is something I do every week. I do my Weekly Forecast, which is done of the 11 major markets. Then, in order to hold me accountable and keep my feet in the fire. I do my Weekly Review. Below is posted this week's Weekly Review. On a scale of 1-10, I'd give this one about a 4. I'm glad I'm starting with one of my worse. I'l post my WEekly Forecast when finished:

EUR/USD: The strong move that ended last week should continue this week. If there is a correction to start the week, then it will be contained at the WR1 at 1.3135. The WS2 at 1.2975 is a very strong S. It is likely that the WS2 will contain, but if it doesn’t, then the WS3 at 1.2893 could abruptly be put on the radar.

The week started the week in the trend that ended last week to 1.2994, which is about half between the WS1 and WS2. The abrupt reversal took the pair to the peak at 1.3226

USD/JPY: This pair was correcting the DOWN from near the beginning of last week and it is still not finished. It should continue to the WR2 at 81.60 or the daily tenken at 81.77. From there the pair might be ready to resume its MT trip south.

The pair headed south to start the week to the dip at 80.29, then the reversal took it to the peak at 81.77, exactly.

GBP/USD: The week ended with a very strong move south and there is little doubt that will continue this week. Any correction will be contained at the MS1/ WR1 combo at 1.5886—91. The pair is headed to the weekly kijun at 1.5698 and the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.5611. The WS2 is 1.5746. Look for containment to the south to be there, with an outside shot at 1.5698.

I was way off on this one. The week started to the dip at 1.5818, and then reversed to the peak at 1.6148.
Note: The only bright side about this pair this week is that I adjusted the containment level at 1.6150.

USD/CHF: This pair looks very strong for this week. It is doubtful any move south would hit the WS1 at .9153. The top of the daily cloud at .9262 is on the radar this week.

This pair did its job and headed towards the top of the cloud, even though falling short as the peak was 12 pips short at .9250. The dip was .9082, just 1 pip under the close.

AUD/USD: We should get a correction to the 4-hour tenken at 1.0407 and maybe the WR1 at 1.0430. Afterward, the move south will continue to the WS1 at 1.0304 and the WS2 at 1.0242. Both are cluster events.

The former cluster event contained as the dip was 1.0304 exactly. That left additional room for the move to the top as the peak was 1.0481.

USD/CAD: This pair finally broke out of its eastward channel. Any move south should be contained at the WS1/ daily tenken area of .9957--.9955. The move north is headed to the WR2 at 1.0060 and possibly the top of the daily cloud at 1.0080.

I missed this one. The pair got scared out of the daily cloud after it peaked at 1.0031, then it was a violent reversal to the dip at .9864.

NZD/USD: This pair ended last week with a ferocious drop. That should continue this week as topside containment will be the 4-hour tenken/ WR1 area of .8256--.8277. The continuance of the trend should move to the bottom of the daily cloud at .8121, with a small spike to the WS2 at .8112.

The peak and dip were .8250 and .8117. We did get a small spike, but not even large enough to hit the WS2.

EUR/GBP: This pair is ugly and will stay that way until the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. There’s nothing much left to say about this pair. It’s a sleeper.

We made it! Finally! For <> 4 months I’ve been talking about this pair hitting .8167, the bottom of the monthly cloud. This week’s peak is .8161

EUR/JPY: Where there is no doubt this week is that the action will be contained between the weekly 2’s. It is a matter of time when this pair breaks 105.40, and when it does, the pace will pick up. Therefore, if the pair starts off towards the WS1 at 105.22, then the WS2 at 104.66 is on the radar. The WR2 at 106.32 should contain to the north.

The downside looked good as the dip was 104.61. The move north surprised me as the peak was 107.99, 20 pips on the other side of the WR3.

GBP/JPY: This pair is preparing for either a huge MT move south or a complete trend change, which would be a return to the LT DOWN. For the shorter term, the top of the daily cloud at 126.80 will contain for what should be a correction amounting to several days. Considering the WS2 is 126.84, it amounts to a solid confluence. The WR1 is 128.77 which should be topside containment this week.


That solid confluence did more than contain, as the dip was 127.11. The return to the UP was maniacal as the peak was 131.78, a whopping 136 pips above the WR3.

R3r2r1s1s2s3
eur/usd1.34491.33421.32771.31491.30841.2977
usd/jpy82.9882.3081.8981.0780.6679.98
gbp/usd1.64521.63001.62081.60241.59321.5780
usd/chf0.92510.91750.91290.90370.89910.8915
aud/usd1.05511.04701.04221.03241.02761.0195
usd/cad1.00891.00130.99670.98750.98290.9753
nzd/usd0.83130.82520.82160.81420.81060.8045
eur/gbp0.83000.82520.82220.81640.81340.8086
eur/jpy111.17109.59108.64106.74105.79104.21
gbp/jpy136.19134.00132.68130.04128.72126.53

I just joined this forum back in November and I opened this thread in December and I was allowed -lol I really don't know the new rule

I think it has something to do with the rating near the number of posts. It's based on a quantity of the experienced posters referring you (figure of speech). I have a 1 next to that. I need 4. So, my assumption is after 3 more are made, then I can open my own thread.
Now I don't need my own thread. I'll just stay here.

Predict; "To foretell something; prophesy."

Suppose; "To consider to be probable or likely"

I reckon I suppose rather than predict.

Saif, I think the system is allowing me to open my own thread finally. If that is the case ,then after I post the Weekly Forecast here, it will be my last one.

EUR/USD: There is no need for the MS1 at 1.3233 to be hit, but it still could. Regardless, the pair is getting ready to correct the strong UP that ended last week, as it heads to 1.3149. If that level is broken, then it prepares for a strong move that could take it to 1.3084, which is just below the 4-hour cloud
MT, the move north is expected to challenge the weekly kijun at 1.3435. Only a break under 1.2994 changes this view.

USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1/ 4-hour kijun combo at 81.04 to start the week. That should become a decision point. Most likely that area will be broken, as this week should mark the pair’s reversal.

GBP/USD: Key R area is 1.6150. That will contain for awhile, as last week's strong move will be corrected. Watch for the correction take the pair to the WR1 at 1.6024. That will be a deciding point. A break of that point and there will make for a strong move to 1.5932, the WS2. Unless we have a complete trend change, the WS2 will hold and then see a strong move north. If 1.5932 contains, then we could see a move to the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.6432.

USD/CHF: The ideal scenario is to see this move continue south to the cluster S event at .9037, which includes my WS1, and then there will be plenty of room for a recovery, as we see the WR2 hit at .9175.

AUD/USD: After failing to break key level at 1.0304, with no attempt to the next main support area at 1.0224, the pair made a sharp break north. Starting next week, watch for a slight correction to the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0338, and even allowing for a spike to the WS1 at 1.0324. After the correction is complete, there should be a move to the WR2 at 1.0470 that will also open it up for a move even higher in following weeks.

USD/CAD: With this pair getting scared out of the daily cloud last week, the move south should continue. Any recovery should be contained at the 4-hour kijun at .9947, and then we see the move to the WS2 at .9829.

NZD/USD: This pair got plundered at the end of the week and is still seeking to regain some of the losses. Look for the recovery to continue to no higher than the WR1 at .8216. MY, it appears the pair is headed to .7979, but this week should be limited to the WS2 at .8106.

EUR/GBP: The suspense is over. This pair finally made it to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Needless to say, the pair is at a very critical point. It is the proverbial decision point. One thing looks certain, and that is this pair seems to be nearing the point of a longer term reversal. For this week, any move south should be limited to the WS21 at .8164. The move north could see the WR2 at .8252, possibly higher.

EUR/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 107.23. Given the fact the WS1 is 106.74, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 108.81 on the radar for the week.

GBP/JPY: A very strong cluster event to the south awaits at 130.66. Given the fact the WS1 is 130.04, and we had a strong move against the trend last week, then the cluster event could be broken. If the cluster S is broken, then contains the move back north, then the entire correction is over. If the area contains, then we can put 132.55 on the radar for the week.

Yes I am glad they finally allowed you lol