I have not been trading really actively for past few weeks but i have been thinking along these line's to sketch a trading methodology. I know its nothing new but i just wanted put thing together to work on them and have some other people's view/suggestions and criticism.
What You Know Is Priced In
Thats the tagline that is in my head these days and this is foundation from where i start my drawings.
All the information that is available to all the market participants is "priced in" to the extent of :-
1- Number of people that the information is available to
2- Amount of information that is available
3- Time passed since the information came out (information does not come out to every one at the same time, some will know it about it as its came to being, some will in hours, some will in weeks and some will never know it. lol)
So if we start building up from that principle than next step is to find the information that is not priced in yet. That could be :-
1- Information that is available out there but market has not turned it's attention to it cause :-
a: Market is pricing in some information that is counter to it and of course has a bigger impact on Eco and people's emotions and expectations so everyone is paying more attention to it
b: Is too far from current time (>week or so) so no one is betting on it yet
2- Information like Eco Data Announcements that are unpredictable in most cases (except when a row of better/worse data starts coming out contrasting the current expectations, prior to some days before its announcement so Market than have to adjust (price in) its position to it) so there is not much activity in marts prior to it
So the next step would be to pick the right information that is tradable and put the other pieces of the puzzle together like:-
1:- What is market chewing at moment, how much is it left to make market to move on and look out for some new information
2:- Technically, what is the trend, how strong is it, Where are major SR areas
3:- What could market do to cause the max damage to the weak participants/ General public/ Herd or whoever it is that deserves it.
4:- Intraday orderflow information like Bids/Offers/Stops and Option Barrier info along with Technical info to pick out the top's and bottom's and tune our entries
Now all of it sounds right and the method that will be build, ok well there will be no method just one time scenarios that will be traded/practiced and perfected but whatever it will be I envision it as an environment where i should never loose and to have the total control over what happens around (given if have done my analysis right).
At the moment it's all in my head as a theory and that above it just a rough sketch. Though i have seen time/trades that i could never have lost but as i said i have't been actively trading for some time so cant proof anything (nor i want to). So i do expect some skepticism.
Anyways fire off and wish me luck.
.
What You Know Is Priced In
Thats the tagline that is in my head these days and this is foundation from where i start my drawings.
All the information that is available to all the market participants is "priced in" to the extent of :-
1- Number of people that the information is available to
2- Amount of information that is available
3- Time passed since the information came out (information does not come out to every one at the same time, some will know it about it as its came to being, some will in hours, some will in weeks and some will never know it. lol)
So if we start building up from that principle than next step is to find the information that is not priced in yet. That could be :-
1- Information that is available out there but market has not turned it's attention to it cause :-
a: Market is pricing in some information that is counter to it and of course has a bigger impact on Eco and people's emotions and expectations so everyone is paying more attention to it
b: Is too far from current time (>week or so) so no one is betting on it yet
2- Information like Eco Data Announcements that are unpredictable in most cases (except when a row of better/worse data starts coming out contrasting the current expectations, prior to some days before its announcement so Market than have to adjust (price in) its position to it) so there is not much activity in marts prior to it
So the next step would be to pick the right information that is tradable and put the other pieces of the puzzle together like:-
1:- What is market chewing at moment, how much is it left to make market to move on and look out for some new information
2:- Technically, what is the trend, how strong is it, Where are major SR areas
3:- What could market do to cause the max damage to the weak participants/ General public/ Herd or whoever it is that deserves it.
4:- Intraday orderflow information like Bids/Offers/Stops and Option Barrier info along with Technical info to pick out the top's and bottom's and tune our entries
Now all of it sounds right and the method that will be build, ok well there will be no method just one time scenarios that will be traded/practiced and perfected but whatever it will be I envision it as an environment where i should never loose and to have the total control over what happens around (given if have done my analysis right).
At the moment it's all in my head as a theory and that above it just a rough sketch. Though i have seen time/trades that i could never have lost but as i said i have't been actively trading for some time so cant proof anything (nor i want to). So i do expect some skepticism.
Anyways fire off and wish me luck.

.