Simple 4 Hour System

Wallym,

I will not re-enter until I see a long candle closing above the 100 MA. Currently (7:00 AM EST) price is below the 100 MA, and has found resistance there in the last three candles.

I also think that the 100 MA is too flat to enter. But that is my opinion, and I am a very conservative trader. I only trade the best settings.

It would have to retrace at least 50% Fib for me to consider a short...

Just my 2 cents..

Hi Marketsniper,

Thank you for posting your system, I have been reading it over the last couple of days and set up my charts to look for entries.

I took the EUR/JPY short today (June 6th 1pm CST) and would like your opinion as if it was a good entry per your methodology. I circled in red.

Also I read the post you had on Oanda where you mentioned using a 200 MA, would you please explain how you were going to incorporate that.

Thanks again

Pongor the Mad

Hi Marketsniper,

I also saw the reference to the 200ma on Oanda, and I'd like to know how you incorporate it.

I can't help but notice that Ponger's last chart shows EURJPY going below the 100ma. Do I understand correctly that he should NOT have taken a short position until the first short candle after the crossing? I see that the first candle was a long candle. Looks like he took his short about 35 pips below the 100ma. The NEXT candle (a short one) almost touched the 100ma, but went short around 50 pips. Would THIS have been the moment to take the short trade per the rules? If was a short candle, MACD was negative, and Daminai was green. If yes, then uh oh... the next candle after that went short only about 10 more pips before it just barely touched the 200ma (not shown on his chart), and then it retraced 60 pips long the last 4.5 hours and is now right on the 100ma.

So in summary, this "short" crossing went below the 100ma by 60 pips and (so far) bounced off the 200ma back up to the 100ma.

What would you suggest it will do now? At this moment (4:45A Thu GMT), it's looking like USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY are all beginning upturns (JPY is declining against all three), so my guess would be take a long position. The only contrary indicator is MACD (15,26,9) which is still a tiny bit below zero, and it should be above zero to take the long position.

Please comment on the 200ma if you would, and please comment on Ponger's trade...

Thanks for sharing your system,
Pips4life

If you went long, it was a loss. The current trade is a short. I hope you understand now why I say, you can go wrong only once. BTW, I had a loss too but reversed quickly, for the only reason that it broke both the weekly pivot and 100 SMA.

Perfect entry, if you entered at the white candle. I noticed just now, the MACD went below zero on that candle. Nevertheless, If you were discretionary, you wouldn't have taken the trade, because of the support line.

Take a look at this chart. I entered at a short at 1.6493, at a break of the weekly Pivot and 100 SMA. The MACD had not crossed the 0 line, yet I took it. This was my discretion.

It was worth it. This is something I cannot teach you, nor can anyone, and for the same reason, never spoke about it in the beginning. As we further down this thread, I will post examples for your understanding.

Based on some of these set-ups, we might have another push to the downside setting up...? on the cable... If 9900 fails, it would lock it in I think...

Just my 2 cents...

Thank you Marketsniper, I completely overlooked the Weekly Support. I took a small loss on the trade but I have learned something else to watch out for with the system so all is good.

May I press you again about the use of the 200 MA you spoke about in your Oanda post?

Thanks

Pongor the Mad

Hi DaveB,

Did you get the 150ma to display on the 200m TF chart yet? When I opened an M1 chart and added the period converter to that chart, I noticed in MT4 that when I select File->Open Offline, it gives a bar count and also lists the oldest date which for M1 was not many days old, and is probably related to when I started MT4. For the M1 chart, my MT4 said there were 22350 bars. After the 200x multiplier is used, that would be only 121 bars which is not enough to even begin to display the 150ma. For some reason, I did get 183 bars in M200 so I did see about 33 bars (183-150) of the 150ma rather than nothing at all. Even so, I wanted to see more of the 150ma than that.

To display more of the historical 150ma, I went to the M1 chart, turned off auto-update, and then I started dragging the chart history so I could see back several months. The more I went, then the more my M200 chart showed me the 150ma for the older time periods. The M200 auto-updated the 150ma without my doing anything, but worst-case, I might have tried deleting the 150ma and re-adding it back in to see if that worked.

Maybe you didn't see the 150ma because you needed to drag the M1 chart backwards in time to load more M1 bars.

Another possibility would be to use a different base chart, like M15, and use a multiplier of 13, so then your offline chart will be M195. Or you could try M30 with 7X to get M210, or H1 and 3X to get H3. With the M15 and M30 charts, by default you would probably have enough history to see more of the 150ma display without having to drag the base chart backwards in time, but if not, you can still just drag back the base charts and then you should see the MA. Just a thought.


FYI, suppose you want to see M195 bars, but you want to see a moving average which is identical to the 100ma on a H4 chart. Then you would use the MA value of 100 * 240/195 = 123ma. If you wanted MACD to display zero crossings the same as an H4 chart, then I suppose you would apply the same factor to the MACD bars, but I'm less certain about that, and I didn't take the time to compare H4 vs. M195. So, an MACD of 15, 26, 9 would -- I'm guessing(!) -- be instead 18, 32, 11. Both M195 MACD's look very similar to each other, and most crossings are only 1-2 bars different at most.


If anyone wants to comment further on whether these non-standard time periods work better for actual trading or not, please do so. I just got them displaying but haven't really worked with them much so I'm not sure how useful they will be as compared to H4 charts.

Pips4life

P.S. Late yesterday I was only momentarily right about the 3 USD/EUR/GPY vs JPY pairs rising, but it turned out that Pongor's EURJPY short position would have played out VERY well with sufficient S.L. or just taking the trade after the brief longs retraced to solid shorts. I sure didn't see it coming like it did, alas...

I hope some of you took that short last night... Woo Hoo..!

Which currency pair are you referring to?

The cable "per my post last night" see above... Shorted again tonight when support gave way around 9740 ( in 9736 ) still in... nice ride so far...

Thx pips4life, will try your method.

I think I'm right in saying that we may be in for a trade on the eur/chf as it approaches the 100sma either on the close above or a bounce off. If I am wrong in my analysis please comment.

Hi DaveB, Marketsniper,

As DaveB said, the GBPCHF is close to the 100ma. I notice also the EURCHF is about the same, and so is the EURGBP. I'm thinking that surely one can look at these 3 interrelated pairs and figure out what's the most likely movement for the 3 pairs but I can't make heads or tails of it.

Will GBPCHF bounce or cross? Will EURCHF bounce or cross? And the EURGBP which is straddling the 100ma, which way will it go? These 3 pairs represent an arbitrage situation, and I think one should be able to look at all 3 charts and have a better understanding rather than looking at just one isolated chart, but my head is swimming trying to make sense of it all. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

Pips4life

My money is on all of these forming sideways channels now, as we are entering the summer months... Everything ( including equites ) are falling off record/or near record highs... It looks like all the pairs are defining the channels that they will be swimming in all summer...

Take a very close look at the NZD/USD this weekend... If it gaps higher, it might be a very good short for the week ahead... The other pairs are a mess right now, that's why you can't make any sense of them, there's no sense to be made right now, lol...

Hope that helps a bit...

Hi guys, according to my chart eur/chf has now broken both the 100sma and the weekly pivot and closed above by around 11 pips. Now waiting for the macd to cross zero.

Let's see. The Pivot line will be different next week.

Cable looks good for a short. Looks like all the rules have been met according to my chart.