QuoteDislikedThis single factor will have a definite effect on your results
I'm a bit thick (see : a lot) , could you clarify the above statement...
Cheers
Rye
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QuoteDislikedThis single factor will have a definite effect on your results
Disliked
I'm a bit thick (see : a lot) , could you clarify the above statement...
Cheers
RyeIgnored
DislikedI don't want to speak for BB, but I understand his statement to mean that my profitability will be greatly improved if I am more aggressive in moving my SL to BE. In other words, anytime you have a position move into reasonably-positive territory, lock in a BE SL.Ignored
Disliked
Based on BB's comment above, I went back and decided to see what would have happened with my 14 trades if I had quickly moved my SL to BE whenever possible. The result is that I would have avoided 3 losing trades and I would have saved ~125 pips. Then I went back and tried to figure out what would have happened if I used a ATR(50)x0.7 TRAILING stop. The result is that I should have booked roughly ~300 more pips.
What really struck me is this: My winners generally tended to take off very fast and didn't reverse much until they were ready to totally turn against me. But my losers often languished in moderate territory, sometimes for days, before ultimately turning against me. My GBPUSD trade is a great example. It had been up by as much as +30 pips at various times, but those times were always brief. Today it spiked to its high before reversing hard and finally stopping me out. Since I relied on a manual move of the SL to BE, that move never happened and I am left with my full loss of 70 pips. But if I had employed a trailing stop, I would only have lost ~20 pips on the trade.Ignored
DislikedTrade update:
(F) Buy 1 EURUSD @ 1.3449, SL @ 1.3402 = stopped out @ 1.3410 (-39)
That EURUSD trade was a turd almost from the time I opened it. Holding my breath for the ADP nonfarm payroll report...Ignored
DislikedByte, I think I remember reading elsewhere in your journal that you are being very mechanical about your trades, and that you are taking all crosses all the time. I think this is in general a good idea, as it takes overanalysis out, emotion out, etc.
However, in your search for a good system that fits you (as I am in the same search), consider some price analysis, and that might help filter out some of your losers (you said you have had quite a few). Granted, an overanalysis can filter out winners, which is what we don't want. But on the EURUSD long that you took, if you look at the bar that confirmed the long, it's a long nosed pinbar (see the james16 chart thread, but you probably have already, not sure) that got in the vicinity of the top of the DOWN channel that's screaming "the sellers dominated this day and the buyers just didn't have the power". Now in a 100% mechanical system, that wouldn't matter. And it's TOTALLY possible that this could have just shot up the next day. But the odds were strong that it was not going to. Hindsight is 20/20, but even if this had gone up 200 pips today, I would still say that the setup was not good for a long. So while I know you want to be 100% mechanical, just the pinbars alone might save you from some big losing trades. Also, these bars have the double benefit of getting you in early on a trade. Say the RSI is crossing down towards the MA, but it's not quite there yet. The daily bar closes with a looong upper shadow (pinbar) and it's near a swing high. I'm going to jump in that trade regardless, but a fozzy cross would make me trade double lots there perhaps! You get the idea. In fact, look at the pinbars on yesterday's daily EURAUD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD, at their position in the trend, and the results today! Combine a little filtering like this with fozzy and you'll be unstoppable! And then you can show me what the hell I'm doing wrong and how I can start making money! :-) (yesterday I got in on the EURAUD and GBPUSD shorts and pulled in about $300 on my demo, but I have many losers that I'm trying to get rid of as well!!!)Ignored
DislikedWhat if you trade opposite to your signals ?
Maybe you will be opposite and successfulIgnored