GBP/USD - one trade a day

here is the EA. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=276686

pl ask all questions about EA in that thread only. not here

today short at 6023, closed at 6012

Winner today for 8-pips (0.9%)

For tomorrow:

Target: 13.73%
r:r - 1:5.492
TP Target: 110 pips

47 pips today if I am using correct candle minus spread of course

Today we had one of those nice big candles go our way. Our losses so far for the month were wiped out, and we're now up a bit.

+44 pips today (4.57%)

For tomorrow:

Target: 9.33%
r:r - 1:3.732
TP Target: 74.6 pips

Yep, looks like you'v got the right one.

Ok, so we close the previous trade before opening a new one? So a trade can be open maximum for 24 hours?

You ALWAYS close any open trade at 09:00GMT. A trade can be open for a maximum of ONE hour. Re-read the first post.

Ah ok I see my bad

my entry was 1.5923 and price go to 1.5943 + spread and stop me out

see you all at monday

On my demo platform (provided by Alpari) the entry at 8h00 Gmt was at .59253 and the higher was 59445. So the stop,in principle, has not been reached. The exit was .59175.
But I agree that it is questionable.

Why testing it with gbpusd?

thanks a lot

I like what you are doing, i think you are on the right track, if you allow me to give you an advice you should take in account that you could lose even 20-25 times in a row, i say this to prevent demoralization during loss streak because believe me, they will happen.
About the idea you're betting, not trading, you re on the right track again, your mindset is good keep up the good work!! stick to your plan and you'll earn a lot of money (and lose a lot, bear in mind) from this system.

Another small win today : 4-pips (0.37%)

For Monday:

Target: 8.96%
r:r - 1:3.584
TP Target: 71.7 pips

You should probably re-read the first post.

I agree, nothing is a sure thing. I"ve done manual backtests back through the beginning of 2007, and have never had more that 4 consecutive 20-pip losses. Yes, there were some streaks that went as many as 8-10 consecutive losses, but not to stop out. And yes, while this has overall been profitable since 2007 (again, in manual backtests), it absolutely can, and probably will, eventually stop working due to market changes or other factors.

Patience is something you develop as a trader. For some it comes sooner than others. But your point about staying in the right mindset during a losing streak is a very good one that new traders need to understand. Not just with this system, but with any system. When you develop a plan, stick with it. When you start "tweaking" it every day just because you've run in to string of losses, that's when you start spinning your wheels and not getting anywhere. Accept your losses as part of your cost of doing business, and get right back in following your plan the next day.

I said it earlier in this thread... Trading is a business. Treat it like one. Know that you will have better days than others, and make sure you know how to keep your business alive to see tomorrow, next week, next year, etc... Despite what you may see in the hundreds of websites trying to sell you today's hottest no-loss trading robot, nobody is getting rich overnight in Forex. Those that are successful have put in their time, have developed the discipline and patience it takes to succeed, and are trading a plan. None of them are attaching a robot to a chart and just sitting there watching the pips roll in.

If you're able to trade this manually, you could avoid situations like this in a way similar to what I do... Send your trade with a stop loss high enough that the spread won't affect you, and close the trade manually if it moves 20-pips against you.

Of course, you could also experiment with the system to suit your taste. For example, maybe you'd find that a 30-pip stop would work better for you. Just adjust the math to try that... Calculate 2.5% of your account across 30-pips instead of 20. You'll end up with a smaller lot size, and your targets will be higher, but you may find in your case that a modification like this turns the system in to a winner for you.

today i kept my sl slightly higher so that its above the resistence. price just cam close to resistence and fell down.

i always consider nearest support, resistence and round number and adjust my stoploss slightly. but in any case i dont go more than 25-30 pips. if i cant adjust within this, i place 50% lot at this price and remaining on a discount (wait for a retrace).

Hi Cgrey
couple of questions if I may, lets say for example the month is going quite well and we are only a very small amount away from reaching our 10% for the month , do we still use a 20pip stop as we may only need 10 pips or so to hit our 10% so risk reward would be really bad. When you say risk 2.5% of account on every trade is this on opening balance of month or does this go up and down depending on balance through month?
Many Thanks
Geoff

I'll start by saying this: What I've presented here is an idea. I encourage you to make it your own. Your "rule" for stoploss doesn't have to be the same as mine.

Having said that, the way I will be trading this going forward is that my SL will always be 20 pips, even if my target is only 10. Yes, for this one trade, my r:r ends up being negative. But I am not treating this system as a "trade-by-trade" system. I am treating this system as "monthy target" system, and I am done trading for the month once my target is hit. Therefore, I am putting less emphasis on any individual trade, and more focus on the overall target / end result. This concept can take a while for some to fully grasp, since most people would generally just continue to trade, not planning to stop at any specific daily/weekly/monthly target level. This makes the r:r for every individual trade much more important. In my case, anything I do "live" with this system will be a supplement to my manual trading, I will be perfectly happy to turn it off one week in to the month if my goal has been met, and start up again the next month. You may be equally comfortable stopping if you're up 8.5% for the month instead of risking 2.5% to gain the last 1.5%. It's really an individual decision for every trader - this is just a tool for you to use how you see fit.

Your second question addresses some more complicated math that I tried to avoid in the first post to not confuse people too much... I will explain it here, at the risk that it may make things more complex for some folks than it needs to be... My 2.5% risk is calculated at the time of the trade, and is based on the CURRENT account balance. Spread is also factored in here, which even further complicates the math. My 10% target, though, is based on the monthly OPENING balance. As a result, as the month progresses, it also impacts the lot size, which in turn impacts the exact TP target for each trade. In reality, none of the actual calculations I do for SL and TP are based on pips. Everything I calculate is based on %. I provide the pip counts in my examples because it makes it easier to follow. But to take your questions a step further, as the month progresses, if I'm up, my risk per trade as compared to the opening balance is actually increased. This results in larger lot size, which in turn actually makes the target TP a few less pips. The opposite is true if I'm down for the month. This also helps explain, for those that are curious, why I had a trade stop out earlier in the month and I only lost 2.42% instead of 2.5% - at the time of that trade, I was down slightly for the month, so while that trade was 2.5% of the current balance, since that balance was lower than the opening balance, the loss was actually a smaller percentage of the opening balance.

By this point, I've probably thoroughly confused everyone...

For those that are more comfortable dealing in pips than percentages, the difference is minor. And, like the first paragraph above, people should feel free to experiment and trade it the way they're most comfortable. You can just as easily do one calculation at the beginning of the month and use the same lot size for every trade in the month, rather than recacluate every day. In the end, I don't think it would make a world of difference, since the target is always the same 10% of the opening balance.

In fact, you could go so far as to say you start the month needing to gain 80 pips. (4*20). After you calcualte your lot size, use that same lot size every day. Keep a running count of how many pips you've gained/lost as the month goes on. When you are +80, you've made your 10%. Your TP target every day is the difference between your current pip total and the 80 you started out needing.

But yes, the way I am trading it is purely as a % gain, so my numbers will be slightly different than the way I presented it for simplicity.