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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,681
  • Feb 24, 2008 5:28am Feb 24, 2008 5:28am
Quoting mjolimer
Everything in life is a gamble.

Not sure about this. The point of Jacko's system is that it gives us an edge. Without an edge, we might as well place random longs and shorts. There is an element of risk but if you feel that opening a particular position is a gamble (or what some people call a punt) then you shouldn't trade it.

To keep it Jacko-related, if your first position fails, then you use the anti-hedge method and wait for a retrace. Otherwise, buy on retraces as it starts rising again.

Bottom picking results in smelly fingers.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #1,682
  • Feb 24, 2008 5:38am Feb 24, 2008 5:38am
Quoting shadowninja
Not sure about this. The point of Jacko's system is that it gives us an edge. Without an edge, we might as well place random longs and shorts. There is an element of risk but if you feel that opening a particular position is a gamble (or what some people call a punt) then you shouldn't trade it.

To keep it Jacko-related, if your first position fails, then you use the anti-hedge method and wait for a retrace. Otherwise, buy on retraces as it starts rising again.

Bottom picking results in smelly fingers.
Jacko once told me that ¨a good strategy is to NOT open another position once you have an AH in place¨ and you know what, until you have a clear idea of where exactly you should be entering I think its a very good rule to follow...Raz
Never say never.
  • #1,683
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:41am Feb 24, 2008 7:41am
Quoting mjolimer
Thanks for the feedback Zoopy.

I think you are probably right. I'm being too eager. I just didn't want to miss the boat.

My intention was to trail all the trades and anti-hedge as appropriate in the Jacko method I was just looking for a way to get on board early i guess.

I guess taking 50% profit when the price equals the previous high is a bit off from Jacko's method? I would be so tempting to take some of the money off the table at that point though. (Assuming it got there.. )



However, given your comments, I think ill ditch the more agressive plan and look to get in at 14650 / 14700 area as you suggest.

ta

John

Don't worry about missing the boat. There will always be another trade around the corner.

When I mentioned 1.4650/1.4750 area, that's based on analysis I did on Friday (which I posted in my journal). What you should also be aware of... if you look at your weekly chart we're still stuck in a range and currently we're near the top. Right now there is no guarantee that the market will break out of that range. For all we know, it could drop... keep on dropping. Hell... I don't even know if it will stop at 1.4650 but atleast if I'm wrong, I'm near the bottom of the range.

As for taking half of your profits, there's nothing wrong with that. Personally I just trail with the 50 pips and let the trailing stop make the decision for me. Less stressful that way plus if the market went up 300 pips more, just by trailing would mean that I would capture most of that move with a full position instead of with only half.


zoopy
  • #1,684
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:18am Feb 24, 2008 8:18am
Quoting razldazl
Jacko once told me that ¨a good strategy is to NOT open another position once you have an AH in place¨ and you know what, until you have a clear idea of where exactly you should be entering I think its a very good rule to follow...Raz
So does that mean if a trade stops out and goes a further 50 pips so the anti-hedge is in place that you don't take any other trades until the anti-hedge order is hit again?

Hmm.. In what context did Jacko tell you this? I have been following the thread for over 6 months and have read it all through a couple of times. There have been occasions when it appeared that Jacko himself didn't always follow this "rule".

If you read back thru you will see that he has taken trades and then afterwards commented that "one of the dead soldiers" from a previous trade had subsequently come back to life...?

Anyway, although i do use elements of Jacko's system, i don't follow it to the letter, so maybe i shouldn't post here. I'm happy just to read everyone elses' posts.

However, if you are feel completely sure on what was meant then I'd really appreciate if you could explain in a bit more detail to help me on this.

Thankyou so much in advance.

And real thanks to Zoopy for your responses, ill check out your trading journal, sounds good. ta.

John
  • #1,685
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:28am Feb 24, 2008 8:28am
Quoting mjolimer
So does that mean if a trade stops out and goes a further 50 pips so the anti-hedge is in place that you don't take any other trades until the anti-hedge order is hit again?

Hmm.. In what context did Jacko tell you this? I have been following the thread for over 6 months and have read it all through a couple of times. There have been occasions when it appeared that Jacko himself didn't always follow this "rule".

If you read back thru you will see that he has taken trades and then afterwards commented that "one of the dead soldiers" from a previous trade had subsequently come back to life...?

Anyway, although i do use elements of Jacko's system, i don't follow it to the letter, so maybe i shouldn't post here. I'm happy just to read everyone elses' posts.

However, if you are feel completely sure on what was meant then I'd really appreciate if you could explain in a bit more detail to help me on this.

Thankyou so much in advance.


John

John

I think that rule that Raz mentioned is more specifically aimed to those just starting to learn his methodology. Once you have more experience in entering into trades, that rule becomes more flexible but within reason.


zoopy
  • #1,686
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:59am Feb 24, 2008 8:59am
So does that mean if a trade stops out and goes a further 50 pips so the anti-hedge is in place that you don't take any other trades until the anti-hedge order is hit again?

Yes, thats what he meant. I doubt he does this himself, in fact Im sure he doesnt, but he isnt in the same position as somebody new to his strategy putting it into practice, as I was when I asked him the question.So the context I would say, was advice to a trader new to his strategy...and very good advice, I believe. Once you dont feel the need to ask that question anymore, then you have become confident in your analysis and can decide for yourself whether you want to put on another trade and use your AH as an add-on...its all a question of how much risk you are willing/able to endure.I think if you are in doubt as to whether you should take on a new position then you probably either lack the experience that would give you the confidence to take extra risk, or would be taking on too much risk with a double position using correct money management .

Anyway, as with anything else, it was only advice, so you can take it or leave it. Experience is the answer to all of our questions in the end,take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #1,687
  • Feb 24, 2008 11:18am Feb 24, 2008 11:18am
Quoting mjolimer
Hmm.. In what context did Jacko tell you this? I have been following the thread for over 6 months and have read it all through a couple of times. There have been occasions when it appeared that Jacko himself didn't always follow this "rule".
I would guess this is because Jacko is a very experienced trader.

I use his method in combination with another method for more trading opportunities, which is why I might open below the A-H order.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #1,688
  • Feb 24, 2008 2:26pm Feb 24, 2008 2:26pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting hendrix
Hello friends,

I've posted a daily EUR/USD chart with major Support & Resistance levels (green lines), 2 most important 50% Fib levels (yellow lines) and 2 potential buying points (blue lines).

I'm still fresh to all of this but I study Jacko pretty seriously.

I believe that currently a valid option would be to wait for a retracement back to 1.4700, or even better, to 1.4650, before going long again. Alternative version is to wait if the pair goes above 1.4900 and then wait again for a couple of days to see what happens next. However, the Friday's candle is suggesting, that there was some indecision between buyers and the seller on where to go next.
Hi Hendrix

I think you should adjust the pivot to use the last swing, this would give you a 50% fib at 1.4695, but i would also apply the TL for the top and bottom of the range, currently the top of the range sits at 1.4890 and the bottom around 1.4500 and as yet there is no reason for this to break, the strongest indication to the current strength comes from the much more even swings in the 4h, the current 4h channel has been moving at a better angle which should indicate greater strength, and once again this would suggest the current 1.4890 position holding as both the upper daily range and 4h channel meet around this point, suggesting that we will see this week a drop to the 50% 1.4700 area which meets nicely with the lower TL of the 4h channel. also the candles closing out last week suggested a drop is next on the charts.

Just my view

as to the discussion on AH and additional trades - Money Management is key to this if you have good MM that allows more than one position to be opened then with good analisis it should be an available option, that said if you have an AH at say 1.4800 and market makes the 50pips for the AH do you want to have 2 positions open that are to close together by opening again at 1.4750, i personnaly prefer 100pip gaps or at least 50pips beyond the TSL, other wise you could find that in a big drop both positions are closed out without any upward movement - and no chance to to adjust your position.
  • #1,689
  • Feb 24, 2008 2:40pm Feb 24, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting MPP
Just my view

as to the discussion on AH and additional trades - Money Management is key to this if you have good MM that allows more than one position to be opened then with good analisis it should be an available option, that said if you have an AH at say 1.4800 and market makes the 50pips for the AH do you want to have 2 positions open that are to close together by opening again at 1.4750, i personnaly prefer 100pip gaps or at least 50pips beyond the TSL, other wise you could find that in a big drop both positions are closed out without any upward movement - and no chance to to adjust your position.
Good advice MPP. I also tend to do this. When I make another attempt at a trade, the new trade has to be at least 100 pips clear from the previous one, same goes with the AH and adding to positions.
  • #1,690
  • Feb 24, 2008 4:03pm Feb 24, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting zoopy
Good advice MPP. I also tend to do this. When I make another attempt at a trade, the new trade has to be at least 100 pips clear from the previous one, same goes with the AH and adding to positions.

This is my thinking when pyramiding in. Allows the first position to profit some and then account for potential losses with second position. End result: if worst happens, you have a smaller profit.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #1,691
  • Feb 24, 2008 4:20pm Feb 24, 2008 4:20pm
Hi MPP,

thanks for sharing your view!
  • #1,692
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:19pm Feb 25, 2008 3:19pm
Co-incidence...I think not!
I noticed that Jacko is definitely onto something with his 50% retracement levels!! Silver on the daily chart has retraced back to the 50% level not once but 4 consecutive times!!!:surprised Check out the charts attached.

P.S. Thanks for sharing your wonderful trading insights with us, Jacko.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc 50 Fibo 1.doc   108 KB | 1,152 downloads
File Type: doc 50 Fibo 2.doc   108 KB | 823 downloads
File Type: doc 50 Fibo 3.doc   108 KB | 814 downloads
File Type: doc 50 Fibo 4.doc   108 KB | 717 downloads
  • #1,693
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:22pm Feb 26, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting Doji Star
Co-incidence...I think not!
I noticed that Jacko is definitely onto something with his 50% retracement levels!! Silver on the daily chart has retraced back to the 50% level not once but 4 consecutive times!!!:surprised Check out the charts attached.

P.S. Thanks for sharing your wonderful trading insights with us, Jacko.
Good for you Doji....isn't it simply great when these things work!!
  • #1,694
  • Feb 26, 2008 2:00pm Feb 26, 2008 2:00pm
well, i suppose after todays move, all Jacko's Turtles are happy and rich To be honest, I closed my longs at 4900 out of fear....had no idea it will jump up so high. This can mean a new uptrend after this loooong consolidation.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #1,695
  • Edited 4:44pm Feb 26, 2008 4:16pm | Edited 4:44pm
you should "let your winners ride" thinking from this point a simple 50 pips stop loss would propel you another 145 pips upward ;-))
  • #1,696
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:56pm Feb 26, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting gagiul
well, i suppose after todays move, all Jacko's Turtles are happy and rich To be honest, I closed my longs at 4900 out of fear....had no idea it will jump up so high. This can mean a new uptrend after this loooong consolidation.

Could STILL be a good time to buy.....
  • #1,697
  • Feb 27, 2008 9:33am Feb 27, 2008 9:33am
Quoting gagiul
well, i suppose after todays move, all Jacko's Turtles are happy and rich To be honest, I closed my longs at 4900 out of fear....had no idea it will jump up so high. This can mean a new uptrend after this loooong consolidation.
Hi Gaguil,

I am doing well...As outlined in the email from on of the group (below), I have made an 18% return in 3.5 months., which is is about 52.5% annual. (The actual is a little better). Not bad, but could do better. Mark (an ex-broker) is beside me laughing, saying that most Funds would give their left arm for those level of results.

However, the more aggressive and disciplined of the group are showing far superior results to mine. The most exceptional traders are the ones who have been aggressive but played by strictly by the rules.

Quote
Dear Jacko, I dont know how to thank you enough for letting us see how you trade...
I have just re-read every post on the blog and plotted every entry and every exit. It has been an exercise I would recommend to anyone (although it took quite a few hours). It has shaken so many of my beliefs about trading, and given me three months of perspective in just a hours.
.................................

If I had traded 2% of my account on every trade you listed my account would be up around 18% in 3.5 months (fantastic and amazing to me)! And all this was done in a sideways market, with some very unusual negative trades (ECB comments), with the subtle influences from all of us, your family concerns and Christmas all thrown in. AND this all came from trading one pair (not 20)!

So all the "stuff" I have been doing feels much like wasted time and effort. I have looked at so many ForexFactory systems, so many indicators, so many theories (eg elliott wave), various short time frame systems, on dozens of pairs, forking out $thousands on software and studied price action until my pin bars were like match-sticks holding up my eyelids into the wee hours of the morning - and made no money.
Then you come along and say:
1. See a long term trend in a currency that takes a lot of money to move around (eurusd).
2. Wait for a pull back (ie the chance of the trade going south is as low as you might be reasonably able to guess).
3. Be prepared to miss lots of trades....
4. Use only one exit (the TSL) and that will make your losses small and give you a chance to make some of your wins big.
5. After you have some pips in the bank, start to rack up the leverage.
Then you summed it all up this week when you said "Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible"

I feel like I have been making this all too hard. Too many indicators, too many fancy stops, too much watching the screen, too much 'need to be right'. I can tell you all about Laguerre lines, Fib extensions, Elliott Wave counts, Double Bar Low High Close patterns and all sorts of trading styles - and now I think I could throw it all away. BUT. and here comes the mental torment.....I have invested so much time and money into systems and software and indicators and 'stuff' that I 'WANT those things to be successful". I "WANT" to get a return on all that time and energy. Your trading style is like a slap in my face. "Hey stupid, follow the trend....just take a low risk guess (like wait for an exhaustion spike down, then wait for a retracement up, followed by a failed test of the low. Then ENTER. Whack on a trailing stop and take your wife shopping")

I've been successful at everything I've done in adult life. And its come from working hard to find out what 'makes a difference' and doing more of that; and finding out what doesn't make a difference, and cutting it out. Re-reading 3 months of your thoughts and trades has shown me that 99% of the time, energy and money I have spent on trading has been doing stuff that 'doesnt make a difference'.

So on the one hand I say thank you. On the other hand, I feel like I've been stripped naked and had my house washed away and everything I've worked hard for has been/is now gone.

Will I trade Jacko's way? I dont know yet. It still feels too simple and I would be embarrassed if anyone knew that's what I did for a living. I think I need to take a few days away from trading and stew over these words - "Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible" .
By the way - this has been the best $500 I have ever spent. I would have paid $5000 to have a successful trader share 3 months of their trading with me. I am truly grateful (and tormented).

As I said above, the more aggressive and disciplined of the group are showing far superior results to mine. The most exceptional traders are the ones who have been aggressive but played by strictly by the rules.
The most encouraging aspect of this, is that ALL of the group can do exactly the same.
I am hoping that we ALL improve.
  • #1,698
  • Feb 27, 2008 9:46am Feb 27, 2008 9:46am
Quoting jacko
Hi Gaguil,

I am doing well...As outlined in the email from on of the group (below), I have made an 18% return in 3.5 months., which is is about 52.5% annual. (The actual is a little better). Not bad, but could do better. Mark (an ex-broker) is beside me laughing, saying that most Funds would give their left arm for those level of results.

However, the more aggressive and disciplined of the group are showing far superior results to mine. The most exceptional traders are the ones who have been aggressive but played by strictly by the rules.



As I said above, the more aggressive and disciplined of the group are showing far superior results to mine. The most exceptional traders are the ones who have been aggressive but played by strictly by the rules.
The most encouraging aspect of this, is that ALL of the group can do exactly the same.
I am hoping that we ALL improve.
On another note.

Some of the best traders in the group are newbies with no bad habits, but a strong desire NOT to repeat mistakes every one else makes. They wanted to learn a way that works straight up...AND THEN add a bit more time and effort to the cause (trading) than I do. They were also more aggressive in their trading but not silly about it.
They have just treated my method as the basis of their trading, asked me a couple of pertinent questions which have been later discussed in the blog, they have not diverted from the strategy and have been more prepared to buy without waiting for as big a dip as me.

..
  • #1,699
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:59am Feb 27, 2008 10:59am
Quoting jacko

They have just treated my method as the basis of their trading, asked me a couple of pertinent questions which have been later discussed in the blog, they have not diverted from the strategy and have been more prepared to buy without waiting for as big a dip as me.

..
I know I will be meeting these people first hand soon, as I have just joined.....but....

Is there a means by which they are determining what dips they are buying on? How are they determining the differences between your dips and the ones they are buying on?
  • #1,700
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:19pm Feb 27, 2008 6:19pm
Hi Jacko,

I did not join your group, but have been following along on the thread & as I new they would, they are all doing well. This kinda reminds me of the Richard Dennis fame & his Turtles, but just designed somewhat different. Your approach is not doubt getting results. Thanks for sharing your method.

AceTrader
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