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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,421
  • Jan 5, 2008 11:20pm Jan 5, 2008 11:20pm
Let me first say this.....Seekinglight is a very capable and knowledgeable contributor to forex factory and I like to read his posts and analysis as well as Jacko's.

I'm sure seekinglight can speak for himself but, when I read this post of his from the James16 thread that said....
"First off let me say the worst thing you can do to your trading is use trailing stops. Yes, there are some fellas with a big following that advocate and love them(because it requires 0 thought), but I think that a fixed size trailing stop is rubbish"

Now I took that comment as a direct reference opposing Jacko's style of trading but he didn't come out and say as such.

I just find it a bit disingenuous when a senior FF contributor such as SL asks another well respected FF contributor to post his profit and percentages without offering up his own numbers. I just think it's a little bush league to do so without offering up the same.
  • #1,422
  • Jan 5, 2008 11:26pm Jan 5, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting erkro
Hi to all discussing about % return of jacko's method!

Hi Jacko I think I can write this, because you wrote all this points already in this public forum.
Jacko said that we should risk no more than 3% in the last few trades.
Of course if a trader has some experience then he knows that the risk should be limited between 1-5%, but that is the decission from every trader.
If you limit your trades with 3% max. loss per trade and you use the 50 pip TS, then you know your lot sice and you have your MM.
Regards Erkro
Thanks Erkro.
  • #1,423
  • Jan 5, 2008 11:37pm Jan 5, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting shandy
Don't you just hate it when that happens, an exact 50 pip retrace to take out the SL then off again. Oh well, can't complain!
You know, I posted a question earlier about using an odd number for the SL. Of course this is not my system and I don't know how many times a direct stop out at 50 is occurring, but seeing that it was a nice even number for entry, I would think of using 53, 57, or something. I don't know, maybe if it retraces 50, it may as well retrace further, or the point really is that the trade was wrong, and thats what the AH is all about. Pardon me if the issue was actually addressed and I missed it.
  • #1,424
  • Edited 3:30am Jan 6, 2008 3:10am | Edited 3:30am
The actual pips lost through trailing the price is usually less than 50 pips, unless price drops 50 points immediately (very rare indeed!) on entry point of the trade. It is very usual indeed for losing trades to initially advance in the right direction before retracing to hit the trailing stop-loss.
For example, say you bought in at 4500, the trailing stop-loss would then be placed at 4450. As the price advanced, say to 4535, the stop-loss would now be at 4485 (4535 - 50). So if price were then to reverse and hit the stop-loss, the actual pips lost would be 15 pips (4535 - 4500).
Hope that clears up the issue about the stop-loss. It has been clearly explained by Jacko in this thread.
  • #1,425
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:20am Jan 6, 2008 5:20am
Jacko does not always use a 50 pip TS, I saw that it depends on the market situation.
I use a stop technik where I can trade the very long moves without beeing stopped out.
BUT if you use this stop strategie at the beginning there you can have some more losing trades with much more minus pips than the 50 pip TS.
I like Jackos 50 pip TS, and I use it for the very precise entry's, Jacko also said that he has a long term depot and a shorter term depot where he uses different SL's.
I use the 50 pip TS entry on my long and short term trades.
On the shorter (not short) term trades I only use Jacko's methode to 100% because I can always buy again, but on the long term trades I change after a fixed rule to my stoptechnik. (Jacko also changes the rules in his long term trades).
I think that Jacko want to bring the traders to a fixed rule in using a stop technik and this alone shows me that he knows what he is doing, because many people use a good feeling stop rule And I KNOW with good feeling YOU LOOSE A LOT OF MONEY IN THE FOREX MARKET. I started around 5 years ago and I lost really A LOT OF MONEY.
I want to say I AM NOT THE SUPERHERO, but I learned from my mistakes.
SO please use a fixed stoptechnik without hoping and good feeling, because good feeling in forex is very much pains.
If somebody gives you a strategie with the best entry technik and you have no fixed stop rules, YOU LOOSE in the long term and it shows also that the seller of the strategy may also be a looser who now makes money with selling his super Ideas.

Ok now it is enough, sorry for so many words about that but it saved my live in the forex market.

Regards Erkro
  • #1,426
  • Edited 6:42am Jan 6, 2008 6:26am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting jacko
Hi Charlinks,

By my calculations, $13594 balance is equal to 35.94% return in only 47 days.
.
So it breaks down to near the 1% risked, 6.5%-7% made I mentioned from my earlier post(again assuming the fixed 50 pip stop - if it varies then of course the risk/reward changes again).

If you use 2% obviously it becomes 13%, 5% => 35% and so forth.

So I wouldn't say it's 36% in only 47 days.
I would say it's 36% in 47 days if you use 5% risk per entry.

And Tiki is right, I admire jacko's proficiency with the market, his intimate knowledge of price behavior, his experience and his way of breaking away all the overcomplication most of the forum is prone to.

His approach is definitely a blessing for many because it has all those things many seem to initially go against(safe stops, trend trading, a surveyable amount of trades/no overtrading, etc).

-

I was merely trying to figure out what the results posted meant to most people and how the money management was handled.

I'm obviously not going to disclose any of my results just because someone feels insulted that I'd like to know what the pip counts that were posted translate into in regards to real returns of the people involved in it.

I just try to think in risk/reward(and expectancy). How much risk you end up putting on each entry should be consistent with what and how you trade.

Risk is freely choosable, I was just wondering what people were actually doing.
I don't have any doubts about jackos capabilities or skills as a trader.


I also do not see how personally having several reasons against trailing stops based on a fixed number makes me a bad person. If someone else feels they are a good way of trading as their approach that's fine by me. I have my personal conviction about it and I posted that somewhere else. Not here. I posted it where I am trying to help people get the most out of their trading and entries and obviously I cannot advocate something I don't believe in personally. Jacko would never do that either.
I really don't see any reasons for the big boo-hoo'ing, I was merely being curious.

It had seemed like jacko wanted to freely disclose some results so I asked about them. That's really all I did. No idea how being interested comes across as offensive to some people.

I think it's really a good thing jacko is helping people to go from account busting to profitability and wish him the best for it and that people take something from it that will lead them somewhere in their own future.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,427
  • Jan 6, 2008 6:33am Jan 6, 2008 6:33am
Quoting HipsterPipster
You know, I posted a question earlier about using an odd number for the SL. Of course this is not my system and I don't know how many times a direct stop out at 50 is occurring, but seeing that it was a nice even number for entry, I would think of using 53, 57, or something. I don't know, maybe if it retraces 50, it may as well retrace further, or the point really is that the trade was wrong, and thats what the AH is all about. Pardon me if the issue was actually addressed and I missed it.
Hi HP,
I think the question is more, why change something that works, rather than, how can we change this...we are after all following an (extremely) successful strategy, why look for improvements? I have been fiddling, making notes to see if there are any differences to when I put my sl below a ppz or something similar rather than using a fixed 50 sl and you know what? Its a pain in the neck and it does not often pay off-for me. Admittedly I do NOT like huge stops and giving back a lot of profit, Im a cheapo like that, I guess it depends on your style. Id rather be off doing other things (read that using 0 brainpower SL if you like lol) but not stuck sitting in front of the screen like I used to be and making a lot more pips for a lot less effort. If the market drops 50 below the high...stopping you out, chances are more likely its going to continue on a ways, although you do get spiked out once in a while (yeah we all hate it when that happens) but hey, cant win em all can you? This is as low stress as it gets folks, so why change a good thing, thanks Jacko, take care all, Raz
Never say never.
  • #1,428
  • Jan 6, 2008 8:40am Jan 6, 2008 8:40am
Every time I read this thread I wonder how genius Jacko is (no sarcasm at all!). Even when strongly trending EURUSD is extremely hard to profit with a trailing stop of only 50 pips and without fixed take profits. Really, I tried for weeks months and months (if not years) of manual back testing of this strategy and was never able to make any profit at all. You must have a near perfect instinct of market timing to get in exactly when a trailing stop of 50 pips will not put you out even before getting to break even, let alone to get some profit.
My most sincere congratulations goes to Jacko and all the people who have mastered this system. You have perfect market timing.
.Ubeee.
  • #1,429
  • Jan 6, 2008 9:28am Jan 6, 2008 9:28am
Quoting SeekingLight
I also do not see how personally having several reasons against trailing stops based on a fixed number makes me a bad person. If someone else feels they are a good way of trading as their approach that's fine by me. I have my personal conviction about it and I posted that somewhere else. Not here. I posted it where I am trying to help people get the most out of their trading and entries and obviously I cannot advocate something I don't believe in personally. Jacko would never do that either.

We have here successful businessman and trader Jacko with his PROVEN method of trading which brings him rewarding life style.
On the other side is SeekingLight who doesn't like a part of Jacko's method (fixed trailing stop).
As one of Jacko's followers I'd really appreciate if SeekingLight can suggest how to improve this part of method.
I am sure that Jacko would be interested as well to improve his trading. (Jacko I am sorry if I am wrong).
I think a suggestion how to improve the trading avoiding trailing stop in Jacko's method would be a proof that SeekingLight
knows what he's talking about when criticizing the trailing stops.

And it would be a great contribution to this thread.

Thanks
  • #1,430
  • Edited 9:42am Jan 6, 2008 9:31am | Edited 9:42am
Actually, Jacko suggested halving lots and doubling your trailing stop (to 100 pips) to take into account the larger volatility from christmas to new years.

This point seems to be overlooked by people being overly defensive about fixed size trailing stops.

Jasdel, I think you are being overly aggressive about your opinion on SL's comments. To answer your question, one way to improve the trailing stop is to adjust it by using a multiplier based off of average true range. You could create a 10 day moving average of ATR and call it N, your trailing stop could then be N or 2N and your lots would adjust to keep your risk at your preferred level. Ideally you would backtest to get an idea of what settings were optimal for the market you were trading.

The thing is, if your market timing (entry filter) is highly accurate, you could use 1/2N or 1/4N and double or quadruple up on lots and make a lot of money without being in the market for days or weeks on end. Likewise, you could enter the market totally at random, and if the above parameters are optimized to the market you are trading, you could still trade profitably.
  • #1,431
  • Jan 6, 2008 10:22am Jan 6, 2008 10:22am
Quoting jkmack
Actually, Jacko suggested halving lots and doubling your trailing stop (to 100 pips) to take into account the larger volatility from christmas to new years.

This point seems to be overlooked by people being overly defensive about fixed size trailing stops.

Jasdel, I think you are being overly aggressive about your opinion on SL's comments. To answer your question, one way to improve the trailing stop is to adjust it by using a multiplier based off of average true range. You could create a 10 day moving average of ATR and call it N, your trailing stop could then be N or 2N and your lots would adjust to keep your risk at your preferred level. Ideally you would backtest to get an idea of what settings were optimal for the market you were trading.

The thing is, if your market timing (entry filter) is highly accurate, you could use 1/2N or 1/4N and double or quadruple up on lots and make a lot of money without being in the market for days or weeks on end. Likewise, you could enter the market totally at random, and if the above parameters are optimized to the market you are trading, you could still trade profitably.
jkmack,
This is something I have started looking at recently. It also seems to be one of the parameters used by the original Turtle traders. Now I just need to figure out how to have this computer to all the number crunching for me so that I don't have to sit here all day with pencil and paper. I am tech-challenged LOL.
  • #1,432
  • Jan 6, 2008 10:48am Jan 6, 2008 10:48am
Quoting jkmack
Actually, Jacko suggested halving lots and doubling your trailing stop (to 100 pips) to take into account the larger volatility from christmas to new years.

This point seems to be overlooked by people being overly defensive about fixed size trailing stops.

Jasdel, I think you are being overly aggressive about your opinion on SL's comments. To answer your question, one way to improve the trailing stop is to adjust it by using a multiplier based off of average true range. You could create a 10 day moving average of ATR and call it N, your trailing stop could then be N or 2N and your lots would adjust to keep your risk at your preferred level. Ideally you would backtest to get an idea of what settings were optimal for the market you were trading.

The thing is, if your market timing (entry filter) is highly accurate, you could use 1/2N or 1/4N and double or quadruple up on lots and make a lot of money without being in the market for days or weeks on end. Likewise, you could enter the market totally at random, and if the above parameters are optimized to the market you are trading, you could still trade profitably.
jkmack,

Actually, I am not looking for an improvement of trailing stop. At least if not proven in live trading like Jacko's.
I was just curious if SeekingLight can say something, if not fine.
Anyway, weekend is almost over and let's get party (trading) started.
Thanks
  • #1,433
  • Jan 6, 2008 11:21am Jan 6, 2008 11:21am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Archer
jkmack,
This is something I have started looking at recently. It also seems to be one of the parameters used by the original Turtle traders. Now I just need to figure out how to have this computer to all the number crunching for me so that I don't have to sit here all day with pencil and paper. I am tech-challenged LOL.
hi Archer
are you using MT4, if so i have an average daily range indicator, PM me as we need to keep the thread clean.

MPP
  • #1,434
  • Jan 6, 2008 11:22am Jan 6, 2008 11:22am
Quoting jasdel
We have here successful businessman and trader Jacko with his PROVEN method of trading which brings him rewarding life style.
On the other side is SeekingLight who doesn't like a part of Jacko's method (fixed trailing stop).
As one of Jacko's followers I'd really appreciate if SeekingLight can suggest how to improve this part of method.
I am sure that Jacko would be interested as well to improve his trading. (Jacko I am sorry if I am wrong).
I think a suggestion how to improve the trading avoiding trailing stop in Jacko's method would be a proof that SeekingLight
knows what he's talking about when criticizing the trailing stops.

And it would be a great contribution to this thread.

Thanks

Hi Jasdel,

If you are interested in how SeekingLight advocates using stops just click on his name at the head of his last post, here you will get a breakdown of all his previous posts. Alternate method would be to use the Forum "Search" panel at the top of the webpage & enter the information you are searching for.

Just trying to help.

BabeFX.
  • #1,435
  • Jan 6, 2008 11:33am Jan 6, 2008 11:33am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hi Jas
i am part of jacko's group as you are, but would like to suggest that in the interest of keeping this thread clean, if you don't like someone - ignor them. that said i would like to point out that SL is a great trader and has valid points to make, not every system suit everyone and sometimes it takes a while for people to understand how a method works and whether to look for something else, purhaps SL will eventually trade jacko's way but like most requested a few simple details to clarify it's potential.

I don't think you will find either jacko or SL discussing any changes to Jacko's method on this thread - this is jacko's journal it's about a method he is more than satified with and SL has the respect not to hijack it.

i would suggest that you visit the EA for jacko's thread and use that for back testing your ideas, to each there own they say. you will also have more freedom to discuss changes there as there are already others looking at variasions on the method.

best of pips for 2008

regards

MPP
  • #1,436
  • Jan 6, 2008 1:39pm Jan 6, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting razldazl
Hi HP,
I think the question is more, why change something that works, rather than, how can we change this...we are after all following an (extremely) successful strategy, why look for improvements? I have been fiddling, making notes to see if there are any differences to when I put my sl below a ppz or something similar rather than using a fixed 50 sl and you know what? Its a pain in the neck and it does not often pay off-for me. Admittedly I do NOT like huge stops and giving back a lot of profit, Im a cheapo like that, I guess it depends on your style. Id rather be off doing other things (read that using 0 brainpower SL if you like lol) but not stuck sitting in front of the screen like I used to be and making a lot more pips for a lot less effort. If the market drops 50 below the high...stopping you out, chances are more likely its going to continue on a ways, although you do get spiked out once in a while (yeah we all hate it when that happens) but hey, cant win em all can you? This is as low stress as it gets folks, so why change a good thing, thanks Jacko, take care all, Raz
Yes, I am a guy that loves to improve continually and don't really want to split someone else's hair. One note, the AH seems to be working fine, but seeing that entries and even exits have been based on even numbers, and "we" believe that the market respects these areas.....just curious on Jacko's reasoning.
  • #1,437
  • Jan 6, 2008 2:29pm Jan 6, 2008 2:29pm
As a (previously unannounced) member of Jacko's group. I feel I would just like to add my views on Jacko's trailing stop strategy.

Over the Christmas break I have thought long and hard about this. It seemed to me previously that in using this strategy one ALWAYS loses 50 pips of potential profit. Problem is, we never know when the top price of a trade is reached.

I'm sure we have all seen a trade produce a large number of pips, retrace slightly then find new legs and reach significantly higher highs after (the recent highly successful AH trade being an example).
Conversely that same trade could have gone south and we could have ended up with less profit.

Seems to me that if one has a cast-iron mechanical exit strategy one ALWAYS sticks to, the discretionary emotional rollercoaster is taken out.
There will be no regrets, recriminations, beating oneself up about what one should have done, could have done, nearly did and so on because you can tell yourself that THIS IS THE WAY I TRADE, come what may.
This approach also has the benefit of freeing you from your computer screen - no need to watch it all the time because what will be will be.

As I said, sometimes you will gain and sometimes you will lose what you maybe would have got using a more discretionary approach but I bet in the long run it will work out about even.

I'm sure that is basically what Jacko is trying to get across to us (if I'm wrong Jacko please put me right).

Good trading to all in 2008

Steve
  • #1,438
  • Jan 6, 2008 2:40pm Jan 6, 2008 2:40pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting HipsterPipster
Yes, I am a guy that loves to improve continually and don't really want to split someone else's hair. One note, the AH seems to be working fine, but seeing that entries and even exits have been based on even numbers, and "we" believe that the market respects these areas.....just curious on Jacko's reasoning.
i'd go with the because it's nice and easy.

example
if say i wanted an entry around 1.3800 - if i go to bed i place a buy/stop, but if i am up i would watch 1.3800 and try to get the best entry point, therby reducing further the chance of my Sl being hit, so i might get in at say 1.3778.

it's not fixed to an exact round number - the round number is simply the target point.

i would also like to point out that the exit point is the 50pip Sl, we don't calculate this, it just happens all on it's own - nice and easy.

remember also that we use 50% fib and trend lines so our round numbers might end up being 1.3775 because a fib and TL might cross at this point.

just my take on the method, i'm sure jacko will point out the errors of our ways.

MPP
  • #1,439
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:17pm Jan 6, 2008 3:17pm
I think newbietrader posted once in this thread how he saw Jacko place a 30 lot order with his 50 pip trailing stop method and just turned the computer off and went out to do his business elsewhere........ I think this demonstrates that having a plan and sticking to it is essential.
trading naked.......
  • #1,440
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:28pm Jan 6, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting piphitman
...he saw Jacko place a 30 lot order with his 50 pip trailing stop method and just turned the computer off and went out to do his business elsewhere........ I think this demonstrates that having a plan and sticking to it is essential.
I think this demonstrates that Jacko is an extraordinary good trader as he has more and more time showed to us all.
I can assure you that if I stuck to his plan I would lose all of my money in very little time.
.Ubeee.
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