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Another Trading Journal

Hi guys!

I dont know if this is the right place to post this.
Unnamedplayr, just tell me if im bothering you or what ever.
I just thought this might be fun or something:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M1 EU order flow.jpg Size: 233 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M1 EU order flow part 2.jpg Size: 204 KB


I mean stop me if it gets boring, but i can keep going like that all day or what ever. Just a thought. Well see yah around!
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
Hi guys! I dont know if this is the right place to post this. Unnamedplayr, just tell me if im bothering you or what ever. I just thought this might be fun or something: {image} {image} I mean stop me if it gets boring, but i can keep going like that all day or what ever. Just a thought. Well see yah around!
Why shorts are obvious?...
Quoting dragos_
{quote} Why shorts are obvious?...
I dunno really. They are. Gotta look at the bigger picture you know
Whats going on in H1? Selling? Gotta do your homework. Get into it. I dunno. What ever.
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
{quote} I dunno really. They are. Gotta look at the bigger picture you know Whats going on in H1? Selling? Gotta do your homework. Get into it. I dunno. What ever.
Good to have another orderflow trader on board. I have learnt a lot from Unamed via this thread. Although he codes his words/messages such that half the time, I can't understand what he is saying,lol. But every now and then , a light bulb sparks in my head. I don't expect you to hand over all of your edge online, but at the same time, please carry us along. One thing I like about UP is even though he 'brags' lol from time to time, he still leaves hints, crumbs, trails for newbies like us to follow.

So, how can we see the bigger picture...for now, I try to do a weekly intermarket analysis...but zooming that down to intraday entres is so hard. For example,
from my analysis here, http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/235035...markets-global gold and yen are selling off...I'm still trying to see how that will affect EUR & USD in the next 3/4 weeks. How and where do I match that with say, 1m and 15m entries?
Quoting FXTriumph
{quote} Good to have another orderflow trader on board. I have learnt a lot from Unamed via this thread. Although he codes his words/messages such that half the time, I can't understand what he is saying,lol. But every now and then , a light bulb sparks in my head. I don't expect you to hand over all of your edge online, but at the same time, please carry us along. One thing I like about UP is even though he 'brags' lol from time to time, he still leaves hints, crumbs, trails for newbies like us to follow. So, how can we see the bigger picture...for...
Errrh... What the fuck do i know, i only trade EU, thats the only thing for me for years.

I give away all the edges i have. I dont encode anything i say. Its just that maybe its "advanced", maybe its not. Some say it is. What do i know? Maybe, maybe not. I dont have any more information then anyone else. I dont need to bla bla this that what ever. MT4 and my probability theory. Woosh! Swoooosh! Its all there in my head bouncing around.

Also i dont EVER FUCKING talk about money, with anyone. For ever. I wont ever show anybody my ice cream money, no matter fucking what. If anybodies got a problem with that? Well they can go fuck themselves if you know what i mean. People cant handle thinking about money. They go into: sex, big apartments, big dinners, cocaine that kind of thing directly. Thats not for me. I live in the forest. I am from the forest. I was born in the forest. I dont like cities that much. Makes me feel yuckie when people stare at me for what ever reason. Maybe i burned off some of my hair yesterday. Maybe i have a wound from close combat training. So fucking what? People who only spend time in a city wont understand anything of this kind of stuff.
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
{quote} Errrh... What the fuck do i know, i only trade EU, thats the only thing for me for years. I give away all the edges i have. I dont encode anything i say. Its just that maybe its "advanced", maybe its not. Some say it is. What do i know? Maybe, maybe not. I dont have any more information then anyone else. I dont need to bla bla this that what ever. MT4 and my probability theory. Woosh! Swoooosh! Its all there in my head bouncing around.
whatever
....errr, okay!
Why not take 5 minute video to explain all this correllations and inefficences? Do you only use currency index against basket? Imho it wouldnt be so hard to show us few tips
Quoting UnnamedPlayr
{quote} Bank dealers (and their algos) constantly offset the risk. But there are also times when they're building (small) inventories or working/using orders from clients to trigger little stops and to knock out small barriers (exotic options). Sometimes they also do it because they know the orderflow from their clients. That's when they provide unhedged liquidity to them with the intention to fade later the move by withdrawing liquidity and bringing price back to value. In the current market phase I have noticed that they are moving the EUR/USD...
I think I also see how they use EURUSD moving it in small ranges to build up positions in other assets. See how EURJPY and USDJPY really moved this eek while EURUSD barely blipped.
It doesn't need a video to explain some basic correlations and inefficiencies.

If you are looking for something very easy or to increase the odds most of the time here is a very simple calculation.

Everybody knows: EUR/AUD = 50% EUR/USD and -50% AUD/USD


But you can also do something interesting like that:

Red line: 0.5 EUR/AUD and -0.5 AUD/USD

Have fun:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2mcxe0y.jpg
Hey Up,

Nice to see that you have been posting again on FF.

This thread has really taken up speed which has to be expected when the quality of your posting is so high.

It took me a few times to read through but it seems like you are using a dynamic value for identifying a pairs value which is weighted in favour of the most heavily traded pairs. Then depending upon whats happening in the market you are spotting times when the price of the instrument you wish to trade diverges away from your dynamic value indicator. This can then reveal to you what the dealers are doing in the background with inventories and what there next intention might be. Its a real novel way of tracking the dealers activities. As you said in one of your earlier posts its the math thats complicated.

It kind of reminds me of the old Market Profile that used volume traded at price to identify the value areas but instead you have made a mathematical model to achieve this value.

Excellent material and thanks for sharing.
This is one of a small number of truly brilliant threads on FF.
Thanks for sharing!
k
  • Post #93
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:18pm Sep 29, 2014 7:04pm | Edited 7:18pm
Does everybody understand the math behind the following?
Quoting UnnamedPlayr
Everybody knows: EUR/AUD = 50% EUR/USD and -50% AUD/USD
He is saying
the value of EUR/AUD is equal to half of EUR/USD and negative half of AUD/USD.

What makes more sense to me is the following
EUR/AUD = half of EUR/USD and half of AUD/USD flipped, which means
EUR/AUD = 0.5*EUR/USD + 0.5*(1/(AUD/USD))

I'm wondering what kind of math you guys have figured out.

Thanks!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Quoting saver0
Does everybody understand the math behind the following? {quote} He is saying the value of EUR/AUD is equal to half of EUR/USD and negative half of AUD/USD. What makes more sense to me is the following EUR/AUD = half of EUR/USD and half of AUD/USD flipped, which means EUR/AUD = 0.5*EUR/USD + 0.5*(1/(AUD/USD)) I'm wondering what kind of math you guys have figured out. Thanks!
Hi saver0, if I'm not mistaken, he is referring to the triangular relationship
(EUR/AUD)=(EUR/USD)/(AUD/USD)

The second, more interesting, version would be:
(EUR/AUD)~(EUR/AUD)/(AUD/USD)

This synthetic price is IMHO designed to show the risk offset from EUR/AUD to AUD/USD, and one can probably observe this through divergences between the price and the synthetic price, perhaps even at particular times... But I am only attempting to understand order flow so this may be incorrect.
I guess he was showing this just for illustration, as he was saying, one should in principle take into account many relationships, presumably with different weights.

Cheers,
k

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi saver0, if I'm not mistaken, he is referring to the triangular relationship (EUR/AUD)=(EUR/USD)/(AUD/USD) The second, more interesting, version would be: (EUR/AUD)~(EUR/AUD)/(AUD/USD) This synthetic price is IMHO designed to show the risk offset from EUR/AUD to AUD/USD, and one can probably observe this through divergences between the price and the synthetic price, perhaps even at particular times... But I am only attempting to understand order flow so this may be incorrect. I guess he was showing this just for illustration, as he was...
Hi Kprsa,

If he was referring to triangulation, then why would he use 0.50 EURUSD. I think he may have literally meant taking half..
For example, we could say this is some what true
EUR/AUD's value contains maybe about half of EURUSD and half of AUDUSD's value.

When you say this:
(EUR/AUD)~(EUR/AUD)/(AUD/USD)

Think of it as a math problem.
So above this is what you have..
EUR divided by AUD = (EUR divided by AUD) divided by (AUD divided by USD) = ?
What you end up with is (EUR times USD) divided by (AUD times AUD)
So you ended up multiplying the EUR and USD value together and then dividing by the square of AUD.
So what does that mean..
If EUR and USD value changes are about the same then it would look similar to EUR/AUD.. when EUR and USD deviates, we will see that change in this new chart.
Now the question is.. is that going to tell us something? Or is there a better way to look into it or with different math?

That's how I would break it down. I'm just sharing in case you think of it differently
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Quoting saver0
{quote} I'm just sharing in case you think of it differently
Hi,

I agree with your math (note the distinction between = and ~ in my previous post), but I do derive different conclusions.

There are two big strategy paths:
a) fundamental trading (for example, you'd do well by selling JPY now or buying EURCHF whenever it drops below 1.2)
b) technical trading (there are really many things that work here at FF, sonicR, similarity, Graviton's thread, Old_Dog's threads, gspajon's stuff...)

And then you have order-flow trading. That's a whole new level of the game and it blew my mind when I looked into it, and it still does.
Look it up. These things are useful to know from a technical trader's point of view, because they hold some key reasons as to why many technical systems fail.
I like this thread because it practically displays what a killing a good orderflow trader can do.

Not my thread, I'll shut up now.

k
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, I agree with your math (note the distinction between = and ~ in my previous post), but I do derive different conclusions. There are two big strategy paths: a) fundamental trading (for example, you'd do well by selling JPY now or buying EURCHF whenever it drops below 1.2) b) technical trading (there are really many things that work here at FF, sonicR, similarity, Graviton's thread, Old_Dog's threads, gspajon's stuff...) And then you have order-flow trading. That's a whole new level of the game and it blew my mind when I looked into it,...
Yea, thanks for sharing. But the problem with Forex is that we don't know the true order-flow. I have been looking at this for a while using what little brokers give us.. it was good but not great.

What UP seems to have is something very unique though. I'm starting to get it maybe.. or my own interpretation or something different.. who knows.. haha It has to do with correlated pairs I think and currencies going out of sync from each other and then going back into equilibrium/sync.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Quoting UnnamedPlayr
Exactly, that's the crux and the most important thing. I won't reveal how to calculate it but here is a hint: where and how do banks offset risk and who is the counterparty? If you have the answer, do the math and start make money.
UnamedPlayr, this thread is golden, but have no idea of where to start with this.....

Thank you for your incite.

MM
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} UnamedPlayr, this thread is golden, but have no idea of where to start with this..... Thank you for your incite. MM
This is the real secret...and I have been studying it for weeks...and I m barely understand it. Its worth investigating!
Quoting FXTriumph
{quote} This is the real secret...and I have been studying it for weeks...and I m barely understand it. Its worth investigating!
I got something now..... replica pairs to show REAL value

It all makes sense.

MM
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