james16 Chart Thread

EUR/USD D1. You are correct Balloon and on the right track with your observations. You are not just talking a lot of hot air. I am trading into a support area, which is not always a good idea, better to trade away from S/R levels, however in this case, I am looking for price to break through. Currently in profit with price hovering just above 1.09000 zone. If price reverses and look like it wants to go north, I will close trade before it hits my S/L.

XAU/USD D1. Moving down nicely, profits locked.



OIL/USD H4 BEOVB. Later entry than preferred below break of bar. BE.

Yes balloon the SR area was not strong as while i slept this pair tracked north and hit my stop for a loss.
As this pair moves on over the coming days/weeks, my post-mortem analysis will show in more detail where I went wrong. The biggest issue I had here could very well be that the box I thought I was breaking out of was in fact not a box yet (definitely the case on the daily chart). I think I was premature with my box identification! Time will tell me.

To Mike and others who are interested in my earlier discussions about adapting my share trading tactics to currencies, perhaps this trade is a perfect example to highlight something that may help peeps here:
When you have a clearly defined box (CHF/JPY would not have met my share trading requirements for a box by a long way), sometimes.... often, price re-enters the box after it breaks out. So where you place your stop is crucial for success. EG: Sticking to a chart I had posted here weeks ago of a share that I am still in since August, it shows that if I had placed my stop after the breakout just below the newly formed support line, I would never have made a dime on this baby (refer to the green line and text) - in fact I would have made a loss. With shares I always place my initial stop just below the bottom of the box.

There are many many other factors that come into play before I will invest in a box breakout, about 1 in 10 are worth trading, so further testing will identify if this tactic works exactly the same with currencies or some adaptation is required. An initial glance over a few pairs recently that were box breakouts shows that price sometimes retraced back into the box, sometimes retraced only to the S/R area. My chart has 2 formed boxes and shows both of these retrace scenarios.

Perhaps all this talk about box breakout retraces is old old news and was fully discussed and detailed on page 500 of this thread. Perhaps this is very boring to most here. I guess J16 probably has a Video somewhere detailing exactly how to trade box breakouts - I should just find it! I'll stop talking now

Have an awesome NY guys and gals. Talk soon.
Bill

[quote=Guitarbloke;8665906]{quote} You are not just talking a lot of hot air....

I see what you did there

One thing I still don't understand. Why do we trade during this universal holiday? Volume and momentum would be lower? Maybe start trading after the 8 Jan?

I have no idea how to post image, so I have put this in attachment.

EURAUD D1
1) bearish outside bar
2) bearish outside bar breaking 1.5
3) bearish outside bar breaking 150ema

EURAUD H4
1) 9 previous bars couldn't close above 1.5; big trader watching 1.5?


But!!!
1) Price touched the 38.2 Fibo and had a small bounce (it's the end of the year, low volume)
2) lack of space; next stop is about 50 pips away


Trade?
1) wouldn't trade due to holidays
2) lack of space, 38.2 fibo


Ideal?
1) bearish outside bar that retested the 1.5 and close below the fibo38




Please comment; I might missed out other points.

GBPAUD D1

Would this be a good trade? Selling at about 61% retracement of the bearish outside bar?
I couldn't find any more point for this.

I feel that trading this is based on random luck; maybe the bearish outside bar breaking the BRN2.0 has a feel-good factor in it, but I have no other points to support this trade.

USDSGD D1
This one looks good

Needs....
1) a validated trend line (before PA breaking trend line)
2) bearish outside bar that breaks:
a) trend line
b) 1.4
c) 150ema

Crossing fingers

AUDUSD D1
This one looks good

Needs....
1) bullish outside bar that breaks:
a) trend line
b) 0.73
c) 150ema

Crossing fingers

AUDCHF D1
Not sure if I'm being reckless here

But I'm tempted to buy now because these are acting as support:
1) 150ema
2) fibo38
3) buying at retracement == risk limited (stop loss just a bit away from the fibo38)

I just wanted to stop in and wish you all a happy healthy and safe new years!


Be safe out there !

Mike

Hi Balloon. My thoughts: GBP/AUD. Could go lower from here, but I would prefer to sell from a swing high. e.g. the last swing high.

AUD/CHF-AUD/USD. Yes, I think these could go higher, but I would prefer to buy at a swing low. Thanks for your analysis and charts. GB.

P.S. Correct, not the best time of year to trade, but I can still make money. e.g. Yesterday in terms of pips: GBP/USD 70 pips. Today Gold 90 pips. E/U flapping about 4 pips in the red. See Charts posted previously.

Thanks Mike. You too. All the best mate. GB.

AUD/CHF D1 BUOVB. (Thx Balloon) Aussie moving up.

GBPAUD, price boxed up after a downward move, now seems like it doesn't want to stay in that box anymore. A clear rejection on the 1hr, but 3 bars have now stopped in the same area, would want to see further confirmation before selling. Worth watching.

GBPAUD 1hr



GBPAUD Daily showing move down, will it reach 2.00?

Maybe you want to get out at 0.72980?

fibo23 + 0.73 might be a strong resistance?

im with u in ur thought from 1-12 @ 2.062
hope will reach it smoothly

Jus a quick helo to everyone, new and old, and a

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!


AND A HAPPY ACCOUNT TO YOU ALL!!!
(well not everybody.......some of us have got to make some money!?*&)

i like that 2d pin bar jus before it fell sharply on your chart

Jon

Woke this morning to see chf/jpy had literally plunged downward to my original TP. DOH!! Some very valuable lessons learned there.
Woke this morning to see my 120pip TP had been hit with buy order on cad/chf. YAH!! Got back into this one for a 2nd time this week at 0.71050 (BRN) during the retrace of the BUOB (See this post from a few days ago http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post8664921 )
.

@balloon, yes this week possibly a good time to have a rest. It's hard not to look at a chart though....
@ those interested in gbd/aud, thought this chart below might help?.... That VBRN of 2.000 is within reach....maybe....

Happy New Year all
Bill

Happy new year Bill. Thanks Jon, a happy new year to you too and everyone here and beyond. Legendary thread, and simple effective method we have here. Just reflecting, I don't even need the private forum as really, everything a trader needs to be profitable is right here on this thread free of charge, so thanks again Jim, Mike and J16er's everywhere. However, I look forward to joining the PF for a while to check it out and learn some more.

Alpha, GBP/AUD moving down from that IB. I'm in.

Bill, GBP/USD Nice BO below BRN 1.48000. I reckon it's heading down to around last weekly lows/demand zone. I'm out of that trade from earlier this week after taking profit but will look to get back in when market opens next week. Here's the BO on the H1. If I saw this at the time I'd be in. GB.

You read my mind GB. An hour ago I had re-posted the GBP/USD chart on this forum from a few pages ago highlighting the fact that this pair had had a BO. However I deleted the post minutes later based on further investigation....
....chart below shows the original support line (orange) but also a new, more accurate support line (purple) which may indicate no BO at all? It could head north for awhile yet. Along with you, i'm hoping it breaks through downward next week as I like the downward flow it has going. It's on the watchlist anyway l