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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #10,581
  • May 7, 2008 12:39am May 7, 2008 12:39am
Quoting jarroo
Yes, and this ties into what Seeking is talking about. There should be (or "must" be) other reasons to entering a trade than just a bar or two.

Inside Bars, Outside Bars, etc. need to have other confluences surrounding that formation to support a given trade. An Inside Bar that is just below a new High, at a S/R level (PPZ), Trendline right on top of it, at a 61.8 Fib level . . . wow, sounds like a good trade to short. These confluences, not all but many, need to be seen before a trade can be placed. imho.

Also, on higher time frames Price Action formations will tend to retrace before they break. Finding retracement levels, be it Fibs, long term MAs, S/R levels, etc., are the key trading requirement that takes practise.

Sorry, I can't post a chart right now, not at home.
Thank you for your help. I guess an inside bar shows indecision and a possible change in trend. Emotion is buildng and it should explode in one direction or another. If the bar is mixed with other confluence areas, then it becomes a very good trade.

Thank you for your time.

T.J.
  • #10,582
  • May 7, 2008 1:04am May 7, 2008 1:04am
Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you for your help. I guess an inside bar shows indecision and a possible change in trend. Emotion is buildng and it should explode in one direction or another. If the bar is mixed with other confluence areas, then it becomes a very good trade.

Thank you for your time.

T.J.
That's it T.J. You got it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,583
  • May 7, 2008 2:40am May 7, 2008 2:40am
I am a bit unsure how to play these kind of bars. Jim wrote on the first few pages that he plays the retrace and the risk is less. With retrace entry you will miss the move many times because price did not retrace.
Mike said that he usually plays the break of any price action bars. Is it enough to set limit sell just a few pips below the DBHLC bar?
Which one has the higher probability, the retrace or the break?
I guess it is personal decision.
Where should I put the SL, is it the a few pips above the DBHLC bar?(it can be quite a large SL in many situations)
  • #10,584
  • May 7, 2008 2:57am May 7, 2008 2:57am
Quoting mihali
I am a bit unsure how to play these kind of bars. Jim wrote on the first few pages that he plays the retrace and the risk is less. With retrace entry you will miss the move many times because price did not retrace.
Mike said that he usually plays the break of any price action bars. Is it enough to set limit sell just a few pips below the DBHLC bar?
Which one has the higher probability, the retrace or the break?
I guess it is personal decision.
Where should I put the SL, is it the a few pips above the DBHLC bar?(it can be quite a large SL in many situations)
I would say that if there was no retrace and you took the trade at the break then that would be a high risk trade. Getting in at a retrace at a Fib or other S/R level is a low risk trade. Just for the simple fact that you are placing your s/l at the top of the DBHLC.

At the break -big stop loss. At a retracement - smaller stop loss.
If there is no retrace and price just breaks then you skip it. No harm, no foul.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,585
  • May 7, 2008 4:33am May 7, 2008 4:33am
On this daily EUR GBP chart I see a BUOB closing on April 29. It is a failure if taken long and I'm wondering if anyone can see a reason to have taken caution on that trade.

I see it forming at a retracement of the long up move from a resting period of the overall up trend which I'd take as a reversal back upward, and it's also bouncing off of a recent short term support. The formation also closed above a PPZ that has been tested from both sides so to me it looked like everything was lining up for a confirmation of a long.

The only thing in the way is the other PPZ overhead that started as a resistance and became support for the bars at the top of the chart. The break made it about half way to there. Would that upper PPZ have been enough to keep people out of this one or was this just one of those failed trades no matter how you look at it? If we try to account for all obstacles we'd have a hard time taking an entry ever, and I didn't see that upper PPZ as being too close to be an obstacle but maybe I should have?
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #10,586
  • May 7, 2008 5:41am May 7, 2008 5:41am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Beautiful
Okay so far the 4h pINS and then daily Pins @ USD/HCF and USD/JPY
went 80Pips for me ..but i thinn i will let them run for a while.

GPB/JPY and GPB/CHF Daily pins gave no entry trigger (break) yet..but i am ready to enter on the 4H pin which is building itself on the GPB/CHF.


Any comments ?
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  • #10,587
  • May 7, 2008 6:42am May 7, 2008 6:42am
Quoting AidanPryde
Okay so far the 4h pINS and then daily Pins @ USD/HCF and USD/JPY
went 80Pips for me ..but i thinn i will let them run for a while.

GPB/JPY and GPB/CHF Daily pins gave no entry trigger (break) yet..but i am ready to enter on the 4H pin which is building itself on the GPB/CHF.


Any comments ?

Hi AidanPryde, could you please post the indicator that shows the spread on your chart?...
  • #10,588
  • May 7, 2008 7:15am May 7, 2008 7:15am
Quoting AidanPryde
Okay so far the 4h pINS and then daily Pins @ USD/HCF and USD/JPY
went 80Pips for me ..but i thinn i will let them run for a while.

GPB/JPY and GPB/CHF Daily pins gave no entry trigger (break) yet..but i am ready to enter on the 4H pin which is building itself on the GPB/CHF.


Any comments ?
It's in "NO MAN'S" land.
  • #10,589
  • May 7, 2008 7:15am May 7, 2008 7:15am
Quoting Aad

Hi AidanPryde, could you please post the indicator that shows the spread on your chart?...
Here you go!

It`s Signal Bars by CJA from Forex-tsd..sorry but i couldn`t find the exact link to the thread
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  • #10,590
  • May 7, 2008 7:18am May 7, 2008 7:18am
Quoting AidanPryde
Here you go!

It`s Signal Bars by CJA from Forex-tsd..sorry but i couldn`t find the exact link to the thread
Thank you AidanPryde...
  • #10,591
  • Edited 7:45am May 7, 2008 7:21am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting HipsterPipster
It's in "NO MAN'S" land.
Please explain to me noobie

i see a support level around 2.0600 area.. okay thats the only confluence i see BUT i still have the 356,240,200,150 MA`s to back the direction..
on the daily its "around the uptrendline" (even a bit below..)

So whats ur stance on "No Mans" land ?

Thank you very much in advance

EDIT: ohh yes ..of course i meant the 356 MA acts as support..what i meant with "backing the direction" is price is above the rest of MA´s..
  • #10,592
  • May 7, 2008 7:33am May 7, 2008 7:33am
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
Hey all,
I have a lot of back reading to do on this thread to catch up!
I'm with Aidan on the GPB/CHF though. I like this one. It has the trendline and 365 as support. I'm hoping to go long and target the PPZ area up above which is my yellow line.
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  • #10,593
  • May 7, 2008 8:27am May 7, 2008 8:27am
Quoting AidanPryde
Please explain to me noobie

i see a support level around 2.0600 area.. okay thats the only confluence i see BUT i still have the 356,240,200,150 MA`s to back the direction..
on the daily its "around the uptrendline" (even a bit below..)

So whats ur stance on "No Mans" land ?

Thank you very much in advance
On the daily chart, it is currently in the middle of 209, those weekly bar highs and 203.65 ish, those weekly bar lows. Also, as noted in my earlier post about my entry off of the 209 area, we still have not come back and broke that ppz. IMHO, price further comfirmed its relevence, when it turned around there earlier. We need GBP strength against the dollar. Remember GBP/USD*USD/JPY=GBP/JPY. Look on the weekly for a better idea of the longer term movement. I will gladly take a long move at my lower ppz area which, also is at about the fib 50% of the weekly DBLHC. And, as always, please remember that this is only my opinion.
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  • #10,594
  • May 7, 2008 9:21am May 7, 2008 9:21am
Thx for explaining clearly your reasoning and the attached chart.

As i saw the GPB/USD falling off the cliff (because of bad Industrial Production Numbers) around @ 1.9605 i began to rethink my GPB/CHF buy stop entry. But it triggered right this moment.

In retrospect i would have taken this trade only with pound strenght in my back.

But now i am in and wait but i inserted an TP @ around 55 Pips from the Entry (break of Pin but entered manualy).

But the probability fell of course.

Thx again for overview of the bigger picture.

Thankfully it`s becoming easier every day NOT TO jump at every Pin that laughs at u
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  • #10,595
  • May 7, 2008 9:25am May 7, 2008 9:25am
AUD USD just made a new daily low so if it can close beneath the previous bar it will be a DBHLC (my feed shows 0.9505 as the high of these last 2 bars). The formation is at a swing high so it's a possible good short setup.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #10,596
  • May 7, 2008 11:59am May 7, 2008 11:59am
Quoting mihali
Which one has the higher probability, the retrace or the break?
I guess it is personal decision.
Where should I put the SL, is it the a few pips above the DBHLC bar?(it can be quite a large SL in many situations)
No one can tell you for sure which has the higher probability unless they take your trades. But by the nature of playing a retrace(an unconfirmed bar), you will be stopped out more and thus have more trades then playing a break. Again by the nature of the technique. But on the flipside playing a retrace you have the ability to have a larger position on, thus making up or even doing better then playing the break. So it is going to come back to your comfort level as a trader. Playing the retrace would involve me trading too many bars and thus I wait for the break. I am never worried about the stop size, because if the bar is in a prime location, that would mean it is justified. Remember to always position size accordingly. What kills most people, is they put on 100pt stop and then see 10pips and get scared to hold it. To me everything is relative. So yes you can play a break a few pips(depending on what you define as a few) below/above, and your stop a few pips above/below respectfully.

On a more general but related note.

The best advice I can ever give with PA is too wait for the cherries. Wait for the best setups. It takes all the thinking out and they really are the best out there! Remember every price bar has information, but we are look for the tip off bars. The bars whre we can actually understand the information and the importance of that information. If you try to trade every formation you see, you will go crazy(believe me and many others who have before you).

If it doesn't get easier then this I don't know what does. You can go an add all the fibs, TLs, etc that you want to this chart. But the reality of a great price action bar, is you don't even need them That is exactly what my chart looks like on my screen following this trade. James is the man!
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  • #10,597
  • May 7, 2008 12:12pm May 7, 2008 12:12pm
Thanks for the detailed answer. One more thing come into my mind. It related to pin bars.
Let say the pin bar close at the lowest or highest point of the bar, no "tails". You cannot play the break of the bar. Do you enter trade at the close of the bar?
  • #10,598
  • May 7, 2008 12:15pm May 7, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting mihali
Thanks for the detailed answer. One more thing come into my mind. It related to pin bars.
Let say the pin bar close at the lowest or highest point of the bar, no "tails". You cannot play the break of the bar. Do you enter trade at the close of the bar?
I think I get what you mean, but there still has to be a break. So even if the lowest point of the pinbar closes at say 1.5456, I would still wait till we hit say 1.5450. Because whenever price closes, that is the lowest point. So if the low of the pinbar is the low for the bar, I still wait for a few pips below that low.

Is that what you mean?

Mike
  • #10,599
  • May 7, 2008 12:20pm May 7, 2008 12:20pm
LOL I literally just got an email from james(group email), about the eur/usd 4hr pin I just posted. Even the big guy loved it. To quote him (hope you don't mind jim ) "I get asked a lot from new people what is an A set up? I always tell them the same thing as those that have been doing this for awhile. After a little practice and demo they literally jump out at you."

It is the truth! if you don't want to listen to me listen to the big guy himself.
  • #10,600
  • May 7, 2008 12:23pm May 7, 2008 12:23pm
Is that what you mean?

Mike[/quote]

Yes, that is. Thanks for clarifying.
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