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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #75,601
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:16pm Sep 26, 2010 5:16pm
I just triggered 3 positions, took all these off the 15m-TF:
1. Long on the E-C, I'am trying to preempt the break of the daily BUOB, FTA @ 13295 the high of the engulfing bar
2. Long on the G-C, I'am trying to preempt the break of the daily BUOB, FTA @ 15600 the high of the engulfing bar
3. Short on the C-J, I'am trying to preempt the break of the daily PB, FTA @ 8550 the low of the daily PB (I took a long trade first at the 15m-BUOB, took full profit at FTA @ 8586)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Pipcrawler
  • #75,602
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:44pm Sep 26, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting ghous
Hey Kyla and welcome to the group,

were you trading the conventional j16 bars just like we trade em'? Could you point us towards some setups that took you out with a spike/whipsaw?

g.
Hi Ghous!

I trade pinbars, inside bars, and occasionally (but not often) DHLC, DLHC, BUOB and BEOB. I usually take the pinbars regardless of where I find them, but am a bit more cautious when they're with the trend instead of at an extreme (as the latter do much better for me on average). I usually use pivot levels to determine when to exit a trade, but rarely when to enter one (perhaps this is part of my problem?). If there's an EMA around where I want to put my entry, I always move it a few pips past it. Most of my entries are 40 pips out. Anyway, I was trading this way at about 82% win rate (with nice statistics all around) over about five years of data, and since 2010 started, it's dropped to around 60% (all other stats staying the same). This is on multiple timeframes and currencies. The way I've traded hasn't changed, which tells me it's the market that probably has, and I'm the one who needs to find some way to adapt. This is very frustrating, as it happened -right- when I finally was starting to get consistent about my demo testing and discipline.

I should note that I've -always- run into plenty of whipsaws over the years, but they almost always came out breakeven, not as losses. Nowadays I get entered on lots of spikes, etc, and the position reverses so quickly that I'm at an immediate loss.

Included are charts of some of the many trades that gave me trouble. Thanks again Ghous and anyone else who can help me out with this issue; I am determined to figure out how to fix this so I can move on with my testing.

Kyla
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  • #75,603
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:24pm Sep 26, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting oltciter
HA ( Hawaiian Holdings, Inc) daily
Quoting oltciter
LCRD (LaserCard Corporation) daily !
more stock charts!
Thanks, Sir
  • #75,604
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:09pm Sep 26, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting kcardinalis
I usually take the pinbars regardless of where I find them,

Kyla
Hey Kyla

I have quoted what is going to be the biggest hurdle and why you are seeing a lot of choppiness. Where we find these bars, what they look like, and the context around them is EVERYTHING. The majority of those bars are in very poor shape/size/ and mostly location. If you tighten up on your entries your overall success and ability to manage yours trades is going to get easier.

Identifying the good bars at the good locations will change your trading dramatically. I see maybe 1 or 2 real good bars on all of those charts, and the rest I would be saying improper location or bar size/look. I understand you have done a lot of testing so I don't want to discourage that, but I also know that a lot of the frustration will go away if you can tighten up these trade entries.

Just to summarize some of what I would say about your charts.

BUOBs we want at swing lows, Beobs at swing highs. They can be played as continuations but learn them at these swing points as James teaches first.

An Inside bar can not be a pinbar. A pinbar must have the open and close within the prior bar and have its nose protrude away from the prior bars low/high.

A small little bar is generally going to get run over in a trend market, and chop at the very first trouble areas in a sideways market(or against a trending market).

Go through those charts and zoom out a bit it will give you a better perspective on your bar sizes vs the current moves, or the current market conditions. Our edge is going to strengthen when analyzing the overall picture, not just spotting a bar and trading it(this is generally very dangerous).

Hopefully some of that helps a bit
Mike
  • #75,605
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:45pm Sep 26, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
BUOBs we want at swing lows, Beobs at swing highs. They can be played as continuations but learn them at these swing points as James teaches first.

An Inside bar can not be a pinbar. A pinbar must have the open and close within the prior bar and have its nose protrude away from the prior bars low/high.

A small little bar is generally going to get run over in a trend market, and chop at the very first trouble areas in a sideways market(or against a trending market).
Hi Mike!

Thank you -so- much for your detailed and specific response. I was pretty sure I had forgotten something about the locations of the BUOBs/BEOBs.

So if you see an inside bar that looks pinbar-ish - and understanding it is -not- a pinbar - do you still generally trade it as if it were an inside bar or avoid it? Also, do you mind please clarifying or rephrasing what you said about small little bars being overrun? Do you mean inside bars, or just smallish formations in general?

Do you mind also please linking me to some basic posts on these location topics for the various formations? Perhaps part of my problem is that I originally learned all this several years ago - and have had many starts and stops in my testing (due to uncontrollable circumstances) - so having returned to it now, my memory may have not lived up to my diligence and I may have forgotten more than I realized. Also, could you please link me to any posts explaining basic retracement guidelines associated with PA location? I think a lot of the whipsaw situations I find myself in are actually retracements, and I have been trying to trade -into- them instead of out of them.

I still find it bizarre this didn't affect even recent tests of old data, only this 2010 data (luck, maybe, turned sour) - but if this location/context stuff solves my current problem, then maybe it will reflect a positive difference in my results over old data as well, making it even better.

My other concern is that even were I to eliminate most of these losses by not taking them, there'd still seem to be a lack of -good- trades. I didn't mark the winning trades I actually did take on these charts, so I'm not sure if there's any simple way for anyone to reply to this part of my query. But is it unusual for there to be wide spans of time with almost no great setups across a currency pair? In these situations, what have you done? Traded more pairs? Traded a lower timeframe? Waited it out?

And of course, I know that this is a huge matter of personal preference and strengths, but could anyone share with me any currencies you had great results with on the daily or 4HR timeframe this year? I know that the results may not be duplicated for me, but I'd be interested to have a look.

Thanks again for your help;
K.
  • #75,606
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:56pm Sep 26, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting kcardinalis
Hi Mike!

Thank you -so- much for your detailed and specific response. I was pretty sure I had forgotten something about the locations of the BUOBs/BEOBs.


And of course, I know that this is a huge matter of personal preference and strengths, but could anyone share with me any currencies you had great results with on the daily or 4HR timeframe this year? I know that the results may not be duplicated for me, but I'd be interested to have a look.

Thanks again for your help;
K.
I would suggest sticking to PInbars and Outside bars, and only the clean ones to start with, like these attached, very obvious clean bars.

Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #75,607
  • Sep 26, 2010 9:12pm Sep 26, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting kcardinalis
Hi Mike!

Thank you -so- much for your detailed and specific response. I was pretty sure I had forgotten something about the locations of the BUOBs/BEOBs.
Hey K

Quote
So if you see an inside bar that looks pinbar-ish - and understanding it is -not- a pinbar - do you still generally trade it as if it were an inside bar or avoid it? Also, do you mind please clarifying or rephrasing what you said about small little bars being overrun? Do you mean inside bars, or just smallish formations in general?

An inside bar can only be an inside bar. Some may say with the pinnish shape that they take a bias on it. Again look past the bar and onto the "where" of the bar. As for little bars, I mean little bars in general. For example your chart you marked these little tiny tiny pinbars coming of strong bearish moves. These are going to get steam rolled more times then not.

Quote
Do you mind also please linking me to some basic posts on these location topics for the various formations?

Generally it is as I said. Buobs at swing lows, bullish pins at swing lows. Beobs at swing highs, BEOBs at swing highs. Again this is the basics, but it still comes down to the story. I suggest clicking on James' name and going back through his old posts. This is always the best stepping off point even if it is just a refresher. You will surely see things you missed the first time around. Additionally:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Quote
Perhaps part of my problem is that I originally learned all this several years ago - and have had many starts and stops in my testing (due to uncontrollable circumstances) - so having returned to it now, my memory may have not lived up to my diligence and I may have forgotten more than I realized....

Not quite sure what you mean here. Do you mean what does a retracement mean? That is simply determining what the recent trend or move is and looking for a retracement(pullback) of that move. Keep it very simple to start. Look for OBVIOUS trends and locations of obvious pullback points(think PPZ + Fib + round numbers etc). Again keep it simple, trying to catch every move , or pick apart every currency is much more difficult then just looking for the obvious. I believe the above link will help you in a refresher course too.

Quote
I still find it bizarre this didn't affect even recent tests of old data, only this 2010 data (luck, maybe, turned sour) - but if this location/context stuff solves my current problem, then maybe it will reflect a positive difference in my results over old data as well, making it even better.

Everything Jim teaches is about Location first. I am not trying to say your backtest results are wrong, it could simply be your interpretation of the material and that is perfectly fine. But I wanted to point out that most think this thread is about the bars, when in reality it is about support and resistance and understanding the bars in the context of where they are and what they look like.

Quote
My other concern is that even were I to eliminate most of these losses by not taking them, there'd still seem to be a lack of -good- trades. I didn't mark the winning trades I actually did take on these charts, so I'm not sure if there's any simple way for anyone to reply to this part of my query. But is it unusual for there to be wide spans of time with almost no great setups across a currency pair? In these situations, what have you done? Traded more pairs? Traded a lower timeframe? Waited it out?

Sure you can have every scenario you think of. That is why I think it is a heck of a lot easier to watch tons of pairs and just be super picky. I often hear people watching 10-15 pairs on the daily and getting very frustrated by the lack of action over the course of a few months. Meanwhile you can have other pairs giving great signals. I personally(this is just what I do) watch 60+ pairs on the daily/weekly and watch roughly 30 pairs on the 4hr/1hr. Lots of pairs/bars and then pick the best ones. Where as based on what you were doing you were looking at the gbp/chf finding any single bar that even remotely can be classified as a "bar" and trade it. Where as if you switch to being PICKY and watching many pairs you have just become a sniper in the bushes.

Quote
And of course, I know that this is a huge matter of personal preference and strengths, but could anyone share with me any currencies you had great results with on the daily or 4HR timeframe this year? I know that the results may not be duplicated for me, but I'd be interested to have a look.

I think the above sums this up. I have no idea, I could check my logs and sort it out, but the reality is I really am not concerned about an individual pair doing well b/c I know at any time that pair may not give signals for months(again depending on the timeframe and ones criteria). For example right now the usd/cad is very very very choppy on the daily. I pretty much will avoid it at all costs. While many might play it, but the smart ones know it is choppy and are getting out quick. The ones that are not taking this into consideration are getting hammered through the chop.

Quote
Thanks again for your help;
K.

Hope this helps
Mike
  • #75,608
  • Sep 26, 2010 9:36pm Sep 26, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting supremeChaos
more stock charts!
Anyone thinking about expanding into equities should be looking at large, liquid stocks - not thinly traded microcaps (which LCRD only just sneaks into, it's practically a nanocap).

52k turnover on a $4 stock? When *I* can do the average daily turnover, you are just begging for someone to toy with you.

Stick with midcaps or larger ($2bn+) or an average daily turnover of at least 1% or 1m. Or preferably both. The back of my envelope scrawlings say that should leave you with at least ~200 on the nas, 490ish on the nyse and 99 of the ftse100 (and at least the ASX50, if you get really bored). Pretty sure that's plenty of charts to look at
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #75,609
  • Sep 26, 2010 9:55pm Sep 26, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting joelcf

...

52k turnover on a $4 stock? When *I* can do the average daily turnover,...
Yeah that fits well into my mental picture of "Joel"

g.
I believe . . .
  • #75,610
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:00pm Sep 26, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting joelcf
Anyone thinking about expanding into equities should be looking at large, liquid stocks - not thinly traded microcaps (which LCRD only just sneaks into, it's practically a nanocap)....
goes without saying... but nevertheless good advice!
Thanks!
  • #75,611
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:21pm Sep 26, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting ghous
Yeah that fits well into my mental picture of "Joel"
Margin accounts and tight stops
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #75,612
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:45pm Sep 26, 2010 10:45pm
  •  jdl
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: going to master this or die trying | 101 Posts
Quoting mbqb11
I personally(this is just what I do) watch 60+ pairs on the daily/weekly and watch roughly 30 pairs on the 4hr/1hr. Lots of pairs/bars and then pick the best ones.
Mike, can I ask whether those 60 daily/weekly are with one broker, and if yes, which one? I have not yet found a broker with more than 30 pairs. This would greatly expand my list of opportunities. Thanks!
  • #75,613
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:04pm Sep 26, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting jdl
Mike, can I ask whether those 60 daily/weekly are with one broker, and if yes, which one? I have not yet found a broker with more than 30 pairs. This would greatly expand my list of opportunities. Thanks!
Hey JDL

Oanda and MB trading have a ton of pairs

Best
Mike
  • #75,614
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:41pm Sep 26, 2010 11:41pm
Hello everyone!

I feel it's time for me to join those who post here

Here goes a gold chart. It seems we got all time hight and a BRN of 1300. Great resistance, and also a place to look for PA.


And I would also like to add a joke:

Trader and Analyst enter the lift. Trader turns to analyst and starts to beg: „Listen, can you make it without all of this?… first wave, second wave… Just tell me, do you need up or down?“
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #75,615
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:48pm Sep 26, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting albinas
Hello everyone!

I feel it's time for me to join those who post here
Welcome

Quoting albinas
Here goes a gold chart. It seems we got all time hight and a BRN of 1300. Great resistance, and also a place to look for PA.
Great resistance at an all time high? Hm.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #75,616
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:05am Sep 27, 2010 12:05am
Quoting joelcf
Welcome



Great resistance at an all time high? Hm.

Isn't it so, Joelcf? As I know places where price goes for the first time act as support/resistence. And here we also have a BRN which also should act as resistance.
  • #75,617
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:14am Sep 27, 2010 12:14am
Quoting mbqb11
You will surely see things you missed the first time around....
Mike, you're wonderful.

Thanks for clarifying on my questions - and having glanced at that link with the post summary, that is probably -exactly- what I need right now. I'm know it'll help a lot; I'm sure now I missed some important stuff the first time through. I'm going to get this location stuff down and be a better trader!

Originally I got very obsessed with the GBPJPY ... to the extent where it's all I tested for years. Finally I tried out the GBPCHF, on the basis of having two pairs and "being able to be pickier". heh! And you mention you watch 60 pairs. So ... here's my next question. Have you been around so long you managed to backtest years of data on each pair seperately? (I always believed each pair had a distinct personality, and thus one would have to tweak what one did for each pair) How did you go about tackling such an impressive feat on a reasonable time frame? When you went to demo (and live) originally, how many pairs were you watching and trading at that point? Did you start with a few and add more over time? It's my goal to be able to go live within the next year; any tips on time and workload management?

Thank you again so much for everything. I really appreciate the time you've taken to help me out - I have felt pretty isolated up until now. You've definitely made what seemed mysterious and a cause for panic start to make sense and seem merely a cause for work. I feel a lot better than I did a couple days ago.

K.
  • #75,618
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:16am Sep 27, 2010 12:16am
Quoting Mr Smith
I would suggest sticking to PInbars and Outside bars, and only the clean ones to start with, like these attached, very obvious clean bars.

Regards
Thanks for the charts, Mr. Smith! Particularly the 2010 one; it's reassuring to see some nice setups with the current data. I have to admit I've had not-great luck with the outside bars, but I'm guessing as Mike said, the trouble has been with their location.
  • #75,619
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:41am Sep 27, 2010 12:41am
Looks like EUR/GBP may have a situation starting to unfold.

2 day IBs and sitting on a RN.
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  • #75,620
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:43am Sep 27, 2010 12:43am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting mbqb11
Hey JDL

Oanda and MB trading have a ton of pairs

Best
Mike
Thanks a bunch MIke. Does Oanda and MBT have MT4 too?
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
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