james16 Chart Thread

Its a long complex and not entirely interesting story, but the figures from the survey that the '95% lose' that people throw around are rubbery at best. Closer to meaningless. But that hasnt stopped the guys trying to sell books to small retail traders (read: fish) taking that number and running with it. BE PART OF THE WINNING 5%, BUY MY BOOK.

And, of course, like most things in thihs business the number just gets recycled and retold, until no one really knows where it came from to begin with - let alone how reliable it is.

Proper studies have put the number somewhere between 55% and 75% - with different estimates depending on markets, instruments and the definition of 'trader' (day traders vs swing traders, etc).

I was once considering it for a thesis subject, this isnt just stuff in my head for no reason - swear

Hi,

Anybody tell me how to trade I4B setting.


zakaria

Got any old links laying around? Love to see this.

There is such a body of folklore out here....

Hey Zakaria

Check out this post it should help a bit

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59040

Best
Mike

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I knew this post was coming!

I wonder which freaks around here were still holding that BUOB on the daily.

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Lol. You made me laugh dan. You do that a lot.

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I have a question.. two of the above charts will help me illustrate.

When going over price action trading on the daily charts there was one thing I could not figure out...

Moving your stop to BE as quick as possible. It works great on superb setups that run far on the first bar, but can also take you out of great setups that take a few days to get going.

examples from above: the USDJPY outside bar. Took a run right out of the gate. You moved your stop to BE soon and it never came back.

But then I remember things, and I go look back at a pin bar james took a long time ago on USDJPY April 19, 2007. That thing consolidated, made a great couple bars after the pin and eventually was a great runner. But had you been using the move stop to BE as soon as possible, you are out of a great trade that is still a great trade.

So. stuck on that part for now.

Also, the above USDCHF bar gave you an opportunity to move to BE, but then you are out.

james16,
thanks again for the charts, Sir.

the quick and dirty answer is there is no simple answer to that, it comes down to YOU the trader. Someone literally just asked me about the same question 2 mins ago here was my reply


This is the BULK of it. This is usually the most difficult part for most. I think it is important to know the type of trader you are and ALSO what kinds of trades you are taking. The better quality set ups IMO are easier to manage, and also tend to move better. This doesn't mean you can just let them run forever and it is situational, but for the most part they seem to just run smoother. For example I am in the group where I analyze each trade and determine the best course of action. Sometimes it is a quick profit, but most times I try to find ways to reduce my risk at appropriate areas while still allowing my trade to work(if the type of trade is conducive to this). It is a balancing act. You have to find that which is most comfortable for you though. Some people are willing to take certain setups that I would deem less high quality but they realize this and get their stops to b/e quick.

Unfortunately there is no one solution that I can give you. This is the ultimate battle here that time and experience is going to tell you best. One thing I did was keep track of multiple exits for each trade I would take. This gave me a lot of data to work off while I would continue with my trading. In the end you can't have the best of all worlds. You will usually fall into a group of a high winrate, lots of small winners/losers and lots of b/e and the occasional runner. A lower winrate with more losses, but higher general reward etc. The problem I think is people try to do everything at once as opposed to finding a style and going with that.

So yes it is frustrating and I wish I could say, _____ do this and this and your golden. The thing is I can't. I think the best starting place is to ask yourself what school you are most comfortable in, and build from there. You will at the end fall some place that will feel entirely yours(and that is when you are there).

I hope this helps a bit but please feel free to bounce off more questions if I can help
Mike

Ditto! Thank you so much sir. I don't post much in here but I've been watching all of the videos in the guest section and reading through as much as I can. I hope to eventually get a membership with you all. Thank you again James and of course everyone else who posts in this thread.

Donnie

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ok. so i suppose it comes down to knowing, *really knowing* what is a great setup and managing it that way.

Otherwise you will have more break evens than you will once you are a great deal better.

It's not black and white, being good and not being good. There are levels... like... KARATE !

Stop to BE. New daily bar in about 20 minutes. Retrace up or shoot down ?

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very cool. that makes my chart look like a toy.

I bet it's fun to see those pivots and high/lows match up.

thanks

Hi Dan,

Thank you very very much with your detailed reply, you have explained everything very well and clear. Now I understand it's all about big round number.....I will demo it out....

Hope one day I can trade as well as you do.

don't even look at anything less than a daily chart for a long time. focus your brain on the dailies.

You think Jim, who has been studying tech analysis for 25 years, doesn't know what he's talking about?

he went through all the BS so you wouldn't have to.

stick to dailys for a while, play around on demo with the 4hr bars.