I'm sure this has been discussed countless times however...
The NFP report was 162k for this month (March 2010), yet how much of this number is actual long-term job stability, and how much is just temporary labor who will soon find themselves again unemployed?
(Taken from the report)
Problem 1 - Temporary Help Services
"NAICS 56132: Temporary Help Services. This industry comprises
establishments primarily engaged in supplying workers to clients' businesses
for limited periods of time to supplement the working force of the client. The
individuals provided are employees of the temporary help service establishment.
However, these establishments do not provide direct supervision of their
employees at the clients' work sites."
The way I interpret that definition (someone more experienced may be able to give better input on this matter), is that these people may or may not have a job at any given time, they are only there when needed. We know we cannot consider these people permanently employed, but will they be steadily employed?
"Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in March."
Should we subtract them for a more stable number? I don't know enough about the industry to make the call, however I will subtract them here for arguments sake.
Problem 2 - Census
"Hiring of 48,000 temporary workers for the decennial census."
These jobs are undisputed as having absolutely no "real" effect on unemployment; they do not contribute to output.
I'll repeat...I am purely speculating on these assumptions...feel free to correct me...
Our new calculation would be 162k-40k-48k = 74k new and at least semi-permanent jobs.
This is not even taking into account the construction and infrastructure jobs that have been and will be created by the 27 trillion dollars given by the government for "highway infrastructure" alone.
So is +74k even a good "un-weighted" estimate, or could it be lower? What will the USA do after these temporary and infrastructural jobs are completed and the tax payer is on his last whim? Borrowing? It is possible, but will be heavily scrutinized by the public. Given the lack of serious reaction in the markets after the report, I would say that they may feel the same.
Would love to hear opinions.
The NFP report was 162k for this month (March 2010), yet how much of this number is actual long-term job stability, and how much is just temporary labor who will soon find themselves again unemployed?
(Taken from the report)
Problem 1 - Temporary Help Services
"NAICS 56132: Temporary Help Services. This industry comprises
establishments primarily engaged in supplying workers to clients' businesses
for limited periods of time to supplement the working force of the client. The
individuals provided are employees of the temporary help service establishment.
However, these establishments do not provide direct supervision of their
employees at the clients' work sites."
The way I interpret that definition (someone more experienced may be able to give better input on this matter), is that these people may or may not have a job at any given time, they are only there when needed. We know we cannot consider these people permanently employed, but will they be steadily employed?
"Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in March."
Should we subtract them for a more stable number? I don't know enough about the industry to make the call, however I will subtract them here for arguments sake.
Problem 2 - Census
"Hiring of 48,000 temporary workers for the decennial census."
These jobs are undisputed as having absolutely no "real" effect on unemployment; they do not contribute to output.
I'll repeat...I am purely speculating on these assumptions...feel free to correct me...
Our new calculation would be 162k-40k-48k = 74k new and at least semi-permanent jobs.
This is not even taking into account the construction and infrastructure jobs that have been and will be created by the 27 trillion dollars given by the government for "highway infrastructure" alone.
So is +74k even a good "un-weighted" estimate, or could it be lower? What will the USA do after these temporary and infrastructural jobs are completed and the tax payer is on his last whim? Borrowing? It is possible, but will be heavily scrutinized by the public. Given the lack of serious reaction in the markets after the report, I would say that they may feel the same.
Would love to hear opinions.