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my adventure with a semi-martingale system 4 replies

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Art's journal of adventure & discovery 150 replies

Attachments: Art's REAL life Fozzy adventure
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Art's REAL life Fozzy adventure

G'day Al,

Quoting alcastro
I took the us/jp short; the aud/us short and the gb/us short.
Got stopped with aud/us, and us/jp and gb/us are not looking good.
I have to really take a hard look at the trades I am making. Why is it that my winning record is not good?
I took this trades regardless of the 50 line in the rsi. Maybe I shall consider Willf's method.
I hear what you're saying and I understand what you're going through. I'm yet to be profitable in my live account, after a very good run on demo. But, it's all about the trades I'm taking. You absolutely must be picky about which trades you take. This goes for all trading, not just the fozzy. I'm still learning to pick what the optimal fozzy trade setup looks like.

As for which fozzy version, I use the original rules, except for the H/L stop loss. I know others have had luck using variants. It's all about how you trade it. Your perseverance will pay off.

Cheers,
Art..
Quoting Artamon
G'day Al,


I hear what you're saying and I understand what you're going through. I'm yet to be profitable in my live account, after a very good run on demo. But, it's all about the trades I'm taking. You absolutely must be picky about which trades you take. This goes for all trading, not just the fozzy. I'm still learning to pick what the optimal fozzy trade setup looks like.

As for which fozzy version, I use the original rules, except for the H/L stop loss. I know others have had luck using variants. It's all about how you trade it. Your perseverance will pay off.

Cheers,
Art..

You are right Art. It is all about picking the right trades. I will start selecting only those that cross the 50 RSI line up/down
a few observations here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=36
Quoting BeachBum
a few observations here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=36

BB,

thanks for this note. I will hang in there. I know this method is profitable...you are the living proof of it. And I like it because it fits my current schedule and my desired lifestyle (I do not want to be glued to a computer all day long- as Steviet said in his thread, it is not about trading one job for another one...it is about trading one lifestyle for another one).

Hopefully tonight we'll see new-profitable-opportunities.
Thanks...............I couldn't agree more!

Quoting alcastro
BB,
thanks for this note. I will hang in there. I know this method is profitable...you are the living proof of it. And I like it because it fits my current schedule and my desired lifestyle (I do not want to be glued to a computer all day long- as Steviet said in his thread, it is not about trading one job for another one...it is about trading one lifestyle for another one).
Hopefully tonight we'll see new-profitable-opportunities.
G'day all,

The following trade was executed today:

30/3/07 - EURGBP Long @ 0.6793; SL @ 0.6771; TP1 @ 6813; TP2 @ 0.6853

Cheers,
Art...
Quoting Artamon
29/3/07 - NZDUSD Short @ 0.7110; SL @ 0.7160; TP1 @ 0.7070; TP2 @ 0.6980
SL hit @ 0.7160 (-50)

Quote
29/3/07 - AUDNZD Long @ 1.1340; SL @ 1.1282; TP1 @ 1.1380; TP2 @ 1.1470
SL hit @ 1.1282 (-58)

Quote
29/3/07 - GBPUSD Short @ 1.9628; SL @ 1.9700; TP1 @ 1.9588; TP2 @ 1.9498
TP1 hit @ 1.9588 (+40) - SL moved to BE
TS hit @ 1.9578 (+50)

Quote
29/3/07 - USDCAD Long @ 1.1596; SL @ 1.1548; TP1 @ 1.1636; TP2 @ 1.1725
SL hit @ 1.1548 (-48)

1 out of 4. Not the best I've seen with the Fozzy, but it's better that 0 for 4

Cheers,
Art...
Quoting Artamon
SL hit @ 0.7160 (-50)

SL hit @ 1.1282 (-58)

TP1 hit @ 1.9588 (+40) - SL moved to BE
TS hit @ 1.9578 (+50)

SL hit @ 1.1548 (-48)

1 out of 4. Not the best I've seen with the Fozzy, but it's better that 0 for 4

Cheers,
Art...
Are you trading real $$$$??
I hope he is......even using a Micro account with Oanda with provide the "feel" of using the Fozzy method without putting a lot of money at risk. JMO

Quoting alcastro
Are you trading real $$$$??
Art,

Firstly, congrats on having the courage to start this thread !

Secondly, if I understand you correctly - that you have back & forward tested your Fozzy EA and now wish to trade live - I would like to make a suggestion. Make a decision as to which pairs you will trade - taking into account Beach's comments about recent activity favouring yen pairs - and then let the EA do it's thing. If you are going to trade mechanically, you MUST trust your system and let it run.

Work out your max backtested DD for the pairs selected, double it and apply money management accordingly. If you still blow out 50% of funds allocated to this system, stop & regroup.

You can be sure that everyone trading real money will understand what you are going through. "Plan the trade & trade the plan" IS simple.... but very, very difficult in practice : the grand master of mechanical trading, Ed Seykota, doesn't even watch the markets during the day.
HTH



J.
G'day Al,

Quoting alcastro
Are you trading real $$$$??
Yes, I'm trading a live account with IBFX. I'm trading nano lots but it still has the desired effect - the pain of losing is oh so real!

Cheers,
Art...
G'day J,

Quoting jtrade
Art,
Firstly, congrats on having the courage to start this thread !
Secondly, if I understand you correctly - that you have back & forward tested your Fozzy EA and now wish to trade live - I would like to make a suggestion. Make a decision as to which pairs you will trade - taking into account Beach's comments about recent activity favouring yen pairs - and then let the EA do it's thing. If you are going to trade mechanically, you MUST trust your system and let it run.
Work out your max backtested DD for the pairs selected, double it and apply money management accordingly. If you still blow out 50% of funds allocated to this system, stop & regroup.
You can be sure that everyone trading real money will understand what you are going through. "Plan the trade & trade the plan" IS simple.... but very, very difficult in practice : the grand master of mechanical trading, Ed Seykota, doesn't even watch the markets during the day.
HTH

J.
Thanks for your comments.

I am trading using the EA, but it's primary use is to get me into the trade as, at 00:00GMT, I'm at work and not able to watch the charts. Once it gets me in I then rely on it to make sure if the worst case scenario happens and the price retraces, it gets me out at a reasonable SL. I trust the SL it chooses when taking the trade (70% X ATR) because in testing (and live) the values chosen have been sufficient to allow the trade some movement for volatility, but not enough to seriously damage my account. And, chosing to trade nano lots (0.01 lots in a mini account), the % at risk with my choice of lots is typically below 1%.

Where my issue with the EA arises (and it has happened at least 4 times with losing trades) is that I have a hard and fast partial TP level set. If it gets there, great. But when it gets to 75-90% of that level then retraces, well, that kinda hurts a little. It's like the market is playing with me then decides no, it sticks it's tongue out at me and proceeds to reverse against me. If I am at the screen while this happens I will typically give it some room to retrace but also happily close out that partial at 50-75% of the initial value if I think that trend is reversing. Banking some pips is the important thing here. As luck would have it, this usually happens while I'm at work or alseep.

I think I'm giving the EA the freedom to do it's thing. But, I don't believe you should really on something mechanically completely. You have to massage the trade you are in giving it that personal, human touch (aka discretion).

Also, as suggested by BB and some others I am following all pairs that I did during forward test. I have to give the pairs the opportunity to work for me.

Thanks again for your comments. I am not losing faith in this system or about to shut up shop. I'm sitting at -9.00% DD at the moment. It's not where I thought I'd be, but then it'd be too easy if it all went to plan

Cheers,
Art...
G'day all,

Quoting Artamon
28/3/07 - AUDUSD Short @ 0.8073; SL @ 0.8113; TP1 @ 0.8033; TP2 @ 0.7965 (just above Vegas tunnel)
SL hit @ 0.8113 (-40)

Cheers,
Art...
Hello Art...

Not a criticism, just an observation on how to trade this setup, one possibility:

ATR(10) for this pair is about 60. S/L of .7 ATR = 45.
Trade 2 lots; first T/P = 30, second T/P = 60, move second lot to B/E when first T/P is reached (perhaps add a third lot if trade prospects appear strong, i.e. with the trend, good fib confirmation, etc.)
This setup would have given you 30 pips, but it does require "some" watching.

Quoting Artamon
G'day all,


SL hit @ 0.8113 (-40)

Cheers,
Art...
G'day BB,

Quoting BeachBum
Hello Art...
Not a criticism, just an observation on how to trade this setup, one possibility:
ATR(10) for this pair is about 60. S/L of .7 ATR = 45.
Trade 2 lots; first T/P = 30, second T/P = 60, move second lot to B/E when first T/P is reached (perhaps add a third lot if trade prospects appear strong, i.e. with the trend, good fib confirmation, etc.)
This setup would have given you 30 pips, but it does require "some" watching.
Firstly, feel free to relate all observations. After all, how will I learn to expand my thinking if I conduct each trade the same way over and over again. We know (and I know) that all the pairs are different and they need to be handled differently.

As I posted previously, I currently have fixed TP's, which I want to change. They "seemed" to work well enough in the forward test, but times have changed. The market is ever-evolving and a 40pip TP last month may be too far for some pairs to reach. I can handle that. We gotta move and accept what the market gives us, especially with the less-voltile pairs.

I will go through and evaluate the criteria by which I set TP's, primarily. Actually, I have done this already for EURGBP. I set a TP1 for 20pips and TP2 for 60. It moves slower than the others and I adjusted accordingly. I think the key here is that this process of adjustment is not a set-and-forget scenario. It needs to be revisited regurlarly to ensure that the criteria that existed last time still exist. If not, adjust.

Cheers,
Art...
i use 1/3 ATR20, and 1/2 ATR20 for tps for two lots, if that helps..



Quoting Artamon
G'day BB,


Firstly, feel free to relate all observations. After all, how will I learn to expand my thinking if I conduct each trade the same way over and over again. We know (and I know) that all the pairs are different and they need to be handled differently.

As I posted previously, I currently have fixed TP's, which I want to change. They "seemed" to work well enough in the forward test, but times have changed. The market is ever-evolving and a 40pip TP last month may be too far for some pairs to reach. I can handle that. We gotta move and accept what the market gives us, especially with the less-voltile pairs.

I will go through and evaluate the criteria by which I set TP's, primarily. Actually, I have done this already for EURGBP. I set a TP1 for 20pips and TP2 for 60. It moves slower than the others and I adjusted accordingly. I think the key here is that this process of adjustment is not a set-and-forget scenario. It needs to be revisited regurlarly to ensure that the criteria that existed last time still exist. If not, adjust.

Cheers,
Art...
G'day all,

The following trades were taken today:

3/4/07 - AUDCAD Long @ 0.9436; SL @ 0.9385; TP @ 0.9526
SL hit @ 0.9385 (-51)

This trade wasn't even on the radar when I was looking for potential trades a few hours before the new bar. There was some movement (due to news???) and hence this trade was triggered. I suppose these are the risks I run when I can't be at the screen when the new bar opens.

3/4/07 - EURCAD Long @ 1.5458; SL @ 1.5396; TP1 @ 1.5493; TP2 @ 1.5548

Also, for some reason the USDCAD didn't trigger a Fozzy trade even though (it appears) there was a cross. Can somebody confirm this?

Cheers,
Art...
Hi Art

On my platform (FXDD) the usd/cad did cros. It has done very well since climbed 8 pips in 14 hrs!!!

Dave W
G'day Dave,

Quoting DaveW
Hi Art
On my platform (FXDD) the usd/cad did cros. It has done very well since climbed 8 pips in 14 hrs!!!
Dave W
Yes it also appears to have crossed on my IBFX platform but wasn't taken. Anyway, what's done is done. Onward and upward :-)

Cheers,
Art...
great journal, Art. I like it if people have the guts to publish their decisions.
Keep it up!
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