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Managing a (winning) position.

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Feb 5, 2010 8:44am Feb 4, 2010 9:19am | Edited Feb 5, 2010 8:44am
  •  alex_000
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Cofee, Music, Trade | 115 Posts
Hello guys, I would like to discuss about management of winning positions (exit strategies). Since I focus on intraday or short term trading (mainly H4 but sometimes H1), I am trying to automate the trading process to the max (witch for me would be about 80% of the trade done by automated rules) so that there is zero emotion considering trade management. I am stuck at the «management of a winning position” part of the process and I would like some help / input or comments from other forum members. (I would describe the process as trend following even though this is subjective H4 trend can be sideways at Daily chart, a trend in H1 can be sideways at H4 chart and counter trend at daily chart)

I’ve got some thoughts I’d like to share before I get any input from you. There are roughly 3 ways of managing a winning position I’m thinking at the moment. Let’s assume that the positions are 1:1 in terms of stop loss and take profit. (the ratio can easily be changed so please don’t concentrate on that)

1) Opening a position with a 1:1 SL take profit ratio .Self explanatory. Open a position (4H chart) set 80pip stop loss and take profit and forget about it.

2) Opening a position with a 1:1 but including a trailing stop at a fraction of your target. For example a 100pip take profit and a 50 pip trailing stop along with 100 pip stop loss. The reasoning behind this strategy is that it lessens losses at sideways market movement. If the price doesn’t reach the take profit and retraces to the stop loss the trade will have 0 losses if it moved 50 points in our favor and profit if it moved more than 50 but not the full 100. Disadvantage: big retracements will get you out of a winning trade with zero or small profits and you wont benefit from price going even higher. What kind of trailing stop would you prefer using? SAR , ATR, native metatrader?

3)Managing winnings as thus : After the trade wins specific number of pips , close a fraction of the trade and move the stop loss to break even. Close next fraction of the trade with a trailing stop or even better when your trend indicator reverses. This way you will get the whole movement but only with a fraction of the position. This can be made in 3 parts by closing another part of the position higher than the 1st closed fraction and leave the last fraction with a trailing stop or when indicators reverse.

That’s how far I’ve gotten so far. I would really appreciate any input considering the performance of those strategies or, of course another strategy that works even better.
Cheers , thanks in advance.
p.s Please don’t concentrate on the stop loss management of the trade I got that covered
May the Force be with You
  • Post #2
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  • Feb 4, 2010 9:50pm Feb 4, 2010 9:50pm
  •  FXTradeX6
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Member | 57 Posts
There are endless ways to manage winning trades. In the end, it's what you're comfortable with. I like to move stops to break even at the first level of support/resistance. One price moves beyond that point i wait for a new level of S/R to form and then move my stop again, until eventually the trade is stopped out. The most important part of managing winners (IMO) is getting your stop to break even. I know traders who trail stops tightly, loosly, and everything inbetween. I also know traders who take 90% profit at 1st target, get to break even and ride a trade for weeks or months because they no longer care what happens to it. They've taken profit and anything extra is just a bonus to them. Try out your ideas, you'll find what you like.
  • Post #3
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  • Feb 5, 2010 3:40am Feb 5, 2010 3:40am
  •  Dopey
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Dopey Bastard | 1,568 Posts
One thing you must keep in mind is that there really isn't a one size fits all solution to this.

Markets range and trend, that we know. Each scenario needs a different type of take profit mechanism to maximize profitability.

You could use one and don't worry about the other. In other words, pick a system that works best in ranging markets and not beat yourself up when price trends, like it has for the past two days.

Or you could pick a trending method which will result in more losses/breakevens during ranging periods, but make a bundle when trending, again like the last two days.

The final approach is to use both methods, but this requires that you're able to see and realize what the market is doing.

No matter what you chose, you're not going to catch it all. Some days you will nail it perfectly, other days you won't. It really does come down to your personality and how you deal with this issue.

If you look at something like Jacko's method of trailing, he's fine with what he misses because he knows he's always going to have more opportunities in the future. This is so very important to internalize for your long-term mental health.
  • Post #4
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  • Last Post: Edited at 8:41am Feb 5, 2010 8:22am | Edited at 8:41am
  •  alex_000
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Cofee, Music, Trade | 115 Posts
thank you for your imput guys.

Quoting FXTradeX6
Disliked
There are endless ways to manage winning trades. In the end, it's what you're comfortable with. I like to move stops to break even at the first level of support/resistance. One price moves beyond that point i wait for a new level of S/R to form and then move my stop again, until eventually the trade is stopped out. The most important part of managing winners (IMO) is getting your stop to break even. I know traders who trail stops tightly, loosly, and everything inbetween. I also know traders who take 90% profit at 1st target, get to break even...
Ignored
yeah I’m trying stuff all the time, I’ve tried all the above methods. the last 2 work similarly , but there is no harm getting some extra opinions from people that probably have more knowledge or experience than me

Quoting Dopey
Disliked
One thing you must keep in mind is that there really isn't a one size fits all solution to this.

Markets range and trend, that we know. Each scenario needs a different type of take profit mechanism to maximize profitability.

If you look at something like Jacko's method of trailing, he's fine with what he misses because he knows he's always going to have more opportunities in the future. This is so very important to internalize for your long-term mental health.
Ignored
I agree with you that there is no one size fits all solution to the way you handle the markets technically (enter your position) since as we all know markets trend or go sideways. But that has more to do with position entry not exit. I’m not a fan of predicting market movement in forex, with all the technical tools we have I prefer trading setups sometimes with the trend sometimes countertrend.

That said considering the trade exit I believe one can use a one fits all solution. Who knows if
*the top of the sideways movement won’t brake an evolve to a trend.
*the trend I’m following in h4 is part of a sideways movement in D1 or even though I believe that it will be a 200 pip trend turns out to be a 500 pip trend. I don’t care if those things are predictable or not , I don’t want to predict them.

That’s where a position exiting strategy comes in and in fact I believe there can be a 1 size fits all exiting strategy that can work good at ranging and trending markets. Ill search for Jacko's method to see what is it about thanks
May the Force be with You
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