DislikedFor that matter, you surely had read Edwards & Magee before you formulated your method. ]Ignored
- Joined May 2005 | Status: Member | 1,494 Posts
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
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DislikedFor that matter, you surely had read Edwards & Magee before you formulated your method. ]Ignored
DislikedI have no idea, what would happen if several big players would all trade the same system all of the time. Maybe, indeed, the system will stop working. However, if the microcosmos of FF and other fx forums reflects the psychology of traders in general, there is no slightest chance that any significant group of traders will follow exactly the same system.
I'm fascinated with this psychology (I'm part of it myself, of course). Dozens of profitable systems were published at FF. Even the most severely sub-optimized systems, like the Pouria method that has attracted lot of attention recently. Where are all the Pouria traders? They moved on to some new fades. If they would have taken some time to optimize Pouria, they could make some nice profits. I optimized it, I saw it could work. Why, right after that, did I start working on another system? Well, trading doesn't leave me much time to go to my shrink. If I'd see him, I'd certainly like to discuss this question with him.
Publish any system you want. Several thousand people will read your post. Several hundred will try it. Several dozen will suggest adding to it any possible indicator. Zero will stick to this system after some period of time. This probably happens with 95% of published systems. The remaining 5% remain alive mostly because of leadership skills of their authors, not because they are any better or worse than other systems.
This behavior reminds me of restaurant-going behavior in my hometown of Tel-Aviv. A new restaurant/bar/cafe is opened. Everyone is talking about it. Queues at the entrance. Newspaper critics hail it. Half a year passes. Nobody remembers the place. Everyone is in the queue to the next culinary Holy Grail. This is bad for restaurant keepers. This is great for food-lovers: you can always find a great place to eat without ordering a table a week ahead.Ignored
DislikedHave to admit that I got this book first time in my hands only after the method had been fully developed. Before that I have read only Murphy's book, what then allowed me to test and add some technical templates to the bunch. But the initial idea about using ATR came to me just from own practical observations.Ignored
DislikedI suspect when you 'gladly share your winning method' you will soon be rolling in love as you watch someone else succeed because he is now rolling in dough. Why, he placed a copyright on it and, now it costs $x for 'your winning method'
Just something to consider in the future perhaps.Ignored
DislikedThis is of course a myth, the forex market is so vast and so liquid it does not give a hoot how we are trading or what we are "up to". We are just small, small sardines swimming in the Pacific.Ignored
DislikedFor instance, classic technical analysis patterns like head and shoulders, trendlines, support/resistance, triangles, double top, double bottom, etc... have been around for more than 50 years, million of people are acting on these patterns every single day, on the forex, futures and stock market and yet, they are still working just fine like if they have just been discovered yesterday.Ignored
DislikedThe forex is notorious for being the hardest market to trade the classic technical patterns. There's alway so many false signals. Take a simple horizontal range breakout, I can't remember the last time I've seen one with a clean breakout.Ignored
DislikedAnd the reason why is because there are so many technical traders trying these pattern...Ignored
Dislikedthat mixed with the fact that the forex is essentially a zero-sum game. We are all buying form someone who is selling, and we are all selling to someone who wants to buy. If you are going to win money, you must steal it from another trader.Ignored
DislikedI hope I'm wrong. If there is a simple pattern that works consistently, please let me know.Ignored
Disliked
I could hand out the same exact forex daily chart to 100 people and they would all draw different trendlines, resistance/support lines and so forth.
Our own inability (charting is an art and requires a LOT of experience) to draw the "correct" trading range/pattern all the time is not a proof that these patterns are not reliable.]
I agree with most of what you said except I think the above in bold is a contradiction. It is only an art if one does not use hard and fast rules to plot their various lines. Tom Demark is excellent on this.Ignored
DislikedFXTerminator:
I define a horizontal range as a sequence of prices where there are several lows that all come down to the same price (within a few pips)Ignored
DislikedIf this pattern does in fact work consistently and if it's not going to hurt its effectiveness by telling me, then please tell meIgnored
Disliked
Yes you are right, Demark has come up with some "scientific" ways to draw trendlines, like fractals bars, each with a different "power". But hey, this is only an approximation.
These S/R lines are the key to the vault because these lines are definitively the ULTIMATE non-random entry/exit points!!
Imagine the spectacular profits If only we could draw them with 100% accuracy all the time.Ignored
DislikedFunny how the people arguing the case for sharing a system have been around for less then 6 months and have nothing of their own to give away.Ignored
DislikedFYI, even $3tril per day in total forex volume has to be divided across the 130 or so tradable pairs, across the entire daily range of each pair, and on both sides of each market.Ignored
DislikedThere are many more people who can move price then you would think.Ignored
DislikedFinally, if head and shoulders/box/triangle patterns are so reliable, then you should trade them.Ignored
DislikedHell, if you’re so convinced then you should quit your job, mortgage your house, max your credit cards, and throw it all behind those super reliable patterns.Ignored
DislikedI'll be sure to drop my change in your cup on the way out of the restaurant.Ignored
DislikedWe can only guess that the pattern we are looking at is indeed pattern X. Then we use the proper stops and make our bet. Win or lose it does not matter, if we keep betting on those patterns that way we will win in the long run, because we are simply betting that people will react the same way when confronted with the same situation, that's why these patterns had stood the test of time.Ignored
DislikedOk, I see what you're saying now...We must simply assume we have picked the right pattern when there is only part of it showing. Trade it with stops and good money management and hope that it develops into the pattern we were betting on. Thanks!Ignored
Dislikedin fact it is often a good idea to actually reverse and take the opposite position if your stop is hit.Ignored
DislikedI am starting to come around to these ideas. One question: On what time frame do you typically look for patterns? Hourly chart, daily?Ignored