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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #12,561
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:42pm Oct 23, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting AlliumPorrum
Ok, so you don't wait the counter trend (red lines) to be broken, but basically you trade on a channel also. Is that a "valid" 3sma style, or your own addition to it..?
Strictly by the 3SMA system there are 2 types of entry. 1. from the setup chart (first candle close outside the 30SMA after testing the previous S/R and 2 from the trigger chart in which involves the breaking of the retracement trendline 1-2-3.
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  • #12,562
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:52am Oct 24, 2014 12:52am
Shorted CAD/CHF @ 85.00, what do you think?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post7821542
  • #12,563
  • Oct 24, 2014 1:26am Oct 24, 2014 1:26am
Quoting belief
Shorted CAD/CHF @ 85.00, what do you think? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post7821542
This is on my watch list.. but price action hasn't confirmed that price wants to go down.. Can you further explain?
  • #12,564
  • Oct 24, 2014 3:02am Oct 24, 2014 3:02am
Quoting hytten
{quote} This is on my watch list.. but price action hasn't confirmed that price wants to go down.. Can you further explain?
what would you like to see as confirmation before putting a short?
  • #12,565
  • Oct 24, 2014 3:17am Oct 24, 2014 3:17am
Quoting belief
{quote} what would you like to see as confirmation before putting a short?
I said I have it on my watch list and these are my thoughts and what I am waiting to see to take action. I think this trade is happening on daily chart, but nothing on the daily chart is showing any indication it wants to go down. I see that inside bar has formed.. to me it is just a slow down.. so I am still waiting.
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  • #12,566
  • Oct 24, 2014 5:38am Oct 24, 2014 5:38am
If you Guys n gals are serious about trend trading, then first you gotta have some rules & be prepared to stick to them. Also, throw away ALL of your indicators
except one which although classed as an indicator is really a method. (Heiken Ashi)
Trends can be found on every time frame, but for the long term or swing trader is used mainly on the 4H & Daily.
Why the Heiken Ashi.? Simple. There is no confusion when the candle colors change.
It also pays to have a target.
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Money Makes Money
  • #12,567
  • Oct 26, 2014 4:23am Oct 26, 2014 4:23am
Quoting hytten
{quote} AlliumPorrum, I have no idea what you are asking here.. it looks like a breakout congestion. Meaning the price broke out but moving sideways. I don't think there is an entry to this until price break the top part of the horizontal channel and test the breakout resistance.
Sorry about my vague explanation Hytten... I'm just trying to understand that if the price action gets in to a channel (yellow line is a bottom of it), should I wait for the BPC to be found below the yellow trendline, before taking the short trade (nr 2.)? Or could I take the trade when the counter trendline is broke (red line & nr 1.) and BPC is in the place?

For what I have understood, the BPC should be found from the congestion area for the valid trade signal, so trade should be taken at position nr 1. But on the other hand, if short trade is opened from the position 1, there is a clear support area on the yellow trendline, so is it a good idea to short against it? It might again be false alarm, like it was after the first red counter trend.
  • #12,568
  • Oct 26, 2014 7:51am Oct 26, 2014 7:51am
Quoting AlliumPorrum
{quote} Sorry about my vague explanation Hytten... I'm just trying to understand that if the price action gets in to a channel (yellow line is a bottom of it), should I wait for the BPC to be found below the yellow trendline, before taking the short trade (nr 2.)? Or could I take the trade when the counter trendline is broke (red line & nr 1.) and BPC is in the place? For what I have understood, the BPC should be found from the congestion area for the valid trade signal, so trade should be taken at position nr 1. But on the other hand, if short...
Both are valid but they are 2 separate strategies. Trading the red line. you are trading inside the channel. You have a double top.. 2nd rejection of the previous top and your target is the yellow line. This is not part of Hector's trading course. Trading the yellow line is part of Hector's course in which you wait for a BPC to confirm short. Target is the width of the channel.

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  • #12,569
  • Edited 8:59pm Oct 27, 2014 8:17pm | Edited 8:59pm
right now holding:

Short

  1. EurGbp 07.7877
  2. NzdJpy 85.2


Long

  1. AudUsd 0.8816

Each 30% margin, riding all trends with 6 currency exposures.

  • #12,570
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:15am Oct 28, 2014 5:15am
Quoting belief
right now holding: Short EurGbp 07.7877 NzdJpy 85.2 Long AudUsd 0.8816 Each 30% margin, riding all trends with 6 currency exposures.
Belief; are you trading some other method than Hector's 3ma?

I'm a newbie so I may have understood something totally wrong, but for me it seems that EG & NJ are not having a good enough trend for 3ma method, and AU is actually goind down on D1 chart?
  • #12,571
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:42am Oct 29, 2014 2:42am
No, i was just trading the auto drawn 4H trend line bounce method in the absence of news with stopped out if 4H closes on the other side of the line, and target at the middle of the 4H triangle when the R/R diminished. Do you have any good reliable methods to share?
  • #12,572
  • Oct 29, 2014 3:19am Oct 29, 2014 3:19am
Hello, I'm trading various pairs but mainly are AUD, EUR, and GBP. Sometimes I also trade EUR/CAD. Have any of you used ADX?
  • #12,573
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:35am Oct 29, 2014 8:35am
Quoting belief
No, i was just trading the auto drawn 4H trend line bounce method in the absence of news with stopped out if 4H closes on the other side of the line, and target at the middle of the 4H triangle when the R/R diminished. Do you have any good reliable methods to share?
Well this thread is all about it, just start from message #1 ;=)
  • #12,574
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:59am Oct 29, 2014 8:59am
I have a few questions about this 3sma method, which I haven't got a clear answer from this thread or anywhere else:

- When taking the trade, setting the SL just behind where the BPC started is quite clear for me. But, from some posts I have understood that some traders (even NightMoves in some cases) are holding trades open over the weekend, and I'm just wondering how is this handled without taking a huge risk? I mean; SL's in 3sma method are usually quite tight, and even if the trade was a winning one on friday, the weekend gap might destroy it totally on monday open and trade could not be closed on the given SL price. So my question is; how do you handle the risk when keeping a position open over the weekend?

- Another question is about the "realistic" target for this 3sma method. I have understood that typical TP for the trade in this method is somewhere between 30 - 1000 pips. During some weeks you might take a dozen of trades, and on another week you can't take even one. But I really would like to set somekind of a weekly target, after which I can call it a week and start again on the next monday. So any comments on this; what would be a "ambitious enough" but still "quite realistic" target for the week when using 3SMA- method? How do you set YOUR target for the week/day/trade/what ever?
  • #12,575
  • Oct 29, 2014 6:56pm Oct 29, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting AlliumPorrum
I have a few questions about this 3sma method, which I haven't got a clear answer from this thread or anywhere else: - When taking the trade, setting the SL just behind where the BPC started is quite clear for me. But, from some posts I have understood that some traders (even NightMoves in some cases) are holding trades open over the weekend, and I'm just wondering how is this handled without taking a huge risk? I mean; SL's in 3sma method are usually quite tight, and even if the trade was a winning one on friday, the weekend gap might destroy it...
3SMA SL is either at 3 of the 1-2-3 or just above the SMA50. Which one to use is totally depends on how aggressive you are as a trader. Being able to hold a trade over the weekend depends on 2 things. 1. Your setup time frame. 2. Your trade plan and risk. You can't be trading on 1H and hold it over the weekend. Similarly you did not wait weeks for a weekly setup to take 30pips only. You calculate your risk before you enter the trade, not how to handle the risk over the weekend after you are already in. Like you said things might look good on Friday and SL hit on Monday.. that is just part of the risk you have to accept, and this risk should not cost you more that you can handle, as mentioned you should have calculated your risk before you even enter the trade. That is just trading, some perfect looking setup will still fail. If you really cannot stand the heat of holding weekend trades, you can always close it on Friday or close 50% on Friday OR don't trade the higher time frame like daily, weekly and monthly charts.

The realistic target for the 3SMA is follow the 3SMA trade plan. "During some weeks you might take a dozen of trades, and on another week you can't take even one (that is the market behaviour). But I really would like to set some kind of a weekly target"(this is you, thinking you are in charge). This thinking is the problem.. you think you are in charge, dude.. the market gives when the market wants to give.. you don't get a say. If the market gives, you take. If it doesn't, you wait.. it is as simple as that. How do you plan to hit your weekly target when there is no setup to trade? This is business not a 9 to 5. The income is not fixed. If you are trading intraday then stop when the average daily range has been fulfilled. I personally feel trading is opposite of the world.. Our world is impatient and fast pace, but trading is patience. Our world we seek to be in charge, but trading requires us to be humble and wait for the market's generosity. Hence it is not easy to adjust the mindset.
  • #12,576
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:50am Oct 30, 2014 2:50am
Quoting hytten
{quote} 3SMA SL is either at 3 of the 1-2-3 or just above the SMA50. Which one to use is totally depends on how aggressive you are as a trader. Being able to hold a trade over the weekend depends on 2 things. 1. Your setup time frame. 2. Your trade plan and risk. You can't be trading on 1H and hold it over the weekend. Similarly you did not wait weeks for a weekly setup to take 30pips only. You calculate your risk before you enter the trade, not how to handle the risk over the weekend after you are already in. Like you said things might look good...
Thanks again for your response Hytten! I did not know about using SMA50 as a stoploss, that's on interesting idea that I have to take a look on. I'm trading (or; learning to trade;-) D1 and H4 as a setup chart, and I can't be behind the screen all the time. So basically I would like the idea of "open & forget" trades that are able to run for a long time, and I would just adjust the SL every now and then, like once a day on the evening.

And I'm using position size calculator to set the risk at 2-3%, depending on the quality of the setup.

Quoting hytten
The realistic target for the 3SMA is follow the 3SMA trade plan. "During some weeks you might take a dozen of trades, and on another week you can't take even one (that is the market behaviour). But I really would like to set some kind of a weekly target"(this is you, thinking you are in charge). This thinking is the problem.. you think you are in charge, dude.. the market gives when the market wants to give.. you don't get a say. If the market gives, you take. If it doesn't, you wait.. it is as simple as that. How do you plan to hit your weekly...
Of course I know that I can not hit the target every week, and that wasn't my point. Actually just the opposite; I was thinking that maybe I should set some (money-/pip based?) target for the week, and if I hit the target, I close all the trades (or at least set very tight SL to be sure I won't drop under the target again) and call it a week. And then start again on next monday. I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not, but I can see few benefits on this:
- Trying to get "all the pips" may often cause losing all the pips. With a clear target I could just close all the trades and be happy that I hit the target, not worry about the pips I still might get.
- I could gather history data on how I am actually doing on a weekly basis; can I be profitable week after week, how often there will be negative weeks, etc. Since I'm still in a learning phase with a demo account, I think it would better to trade actively every week, not just wait for the open trades to hit the trailing SL after 2 months (even if it would actually give more pips in real life) ;=)

It's just quite hard to decide the realistic but still "profitable enough" target for a week. So; what weekly result would you be happy for, on a long run?
  • #12,577
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:48pm Oct 31, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting AlliumPorrum
Of course I know that I can not hit the target every week, and that wasn't my point. Actually just the opposite; I was thinking that maybe I should set some (money-/pip based?) target for the week, and if I hit the target, I close all the trades (or at least set very tight SL to be sure I won't drop under the target again) and call it a week. And then start again on next monday. I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not, but I can see few benefits on this: - Trying to get "all the pips" may often cause losing all the pips. With a clear target I...
I have not given deep thoughts to this but I am curious, how do you justify your win loss ratio then? Perhaps you are more of a scalper trader. Take small profit and run. If that is the case then higher time frame is a waste of time.. it takes too long to form to target a small profit.

Attached is the trade I just closed yesterday USDJPY and gold. Both setup took almost 2 weeks to present a tradable scenario on the daily chart.
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  • #12,578
  • Edited 6:49am Nov 1, 2014 4:16am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting hytten
{quote} I have not given deep thoughts to this but I am curious, how do you justify your win loss ratio then? Perhaps you are more of a scalper trader. Take small profit and run. If that is the case then higher time frame is a waste of time.. it takes too long to form to target a small profit. Attached is the trade I just closed yesterday USDJPY and gold. Both setup took almost 2 weeks to present a tradable scenario on the daily chart. {image}
Nice trades Hytten!

I'm not going to be scalper, D1 and H4 are surely to shortest feasible time frames for me. And I did not actually mean to "take small profit and run". Or well, at least it depends on how do you define "small". What I'm trying to say is that if I can for example gain 10% of profit to my balance during a week, should I then take the profits and run? 10% a week means ~1400% in a year, and I would not call that a "small" profit ;=) Of course I understand that it is not possible to get 10% every week, but still, 10% for any week is still a huge profit for any investment. Most people are quite happy to get 10% a year in the stock markets.

But I also understand your point about getting the pips when ever market is giving them; why wouldn't I trade during the thursday, even if I have already doubled my account during the week, but the setup is again good? I dunno... Well one reason is of course that risk with weekend gap, but surely it can be managed somehow.

Now I understand that it's actually quite hard to explain what I'm trying to understand ;=) But the main thing is that I prefer flat, constantly developing balance with smaller wins, over big wins (or loses) every now and then. If I take only few trades a month, it's quite hard to say if my method is actually a good one, or was I just having a good luck? It would take a year to get enough history data, so that it means statistically something. If I could take a bunch of trades (almost)every week, in a month or few I would have much better view on how I'm actually doing. I don't know how much data is statistically "enough", but I would think that if I can take 10 trades in a row without losing a one, or I'm still profitable after 20-30 trades, the method might be worth trying in a live mini account.
  • #12,579
  • Edited 5:08am Nov 2, 2014 4:22am | Edited 5:08am
Firstly,Hi Hytten i have exactly same trades as you! USDJPY entry wasn't as good as yours though nor was Gold, but holding these long term so hopefully this is just the beginning.

Just my point of view when it comes to trend following based on my personal experience:

the most important thing is portfolio selection. I have selected about 19 different instruments, spread across forex, metals, softs, grains, indices and by firstly limiting it to only 19 means it's much easier to keep track of everything. and by selecting it from such a wide range of markets that aren't in anyway correlated to each other (with the exception of a few) greatly improves you chances of getting on a trend.

It is also important though that if you choose 19 or 20 different instruments to trade, you apply your trend following entry rules (mine are based on breakouts), and you stick to these instruments consistently, if you see a good trade somewhere else, don't touch it. It's a game of probability and when you start being subjective and picking trades, it all goes down the drain.
  • #12,580
  • Nov 2, 2014 3:46pm Nov 2, 2014 3:46pm
^ exactly abbwells, that's what i do. i have about 21 pairs, no stocks though just the stock indexes. no bonds either.

and agreed key is consistency, i'm trying to follow the turtle system, and they only traded about 20 different markets also.


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