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Phil Newton's system

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  • Post #21
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  • Aug 4, 2009 7:54am Aug 4, 2009 7:54am
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Hi, sorry for delay... a mans got to grab some lunch

First think you need to consider is which way is the trend based on the larger time frames... I use the 240 min charts as my direction time frame. Price is making HH HL's ie. going up so my direction is currently in an uptrend. So you have a few options... only trade with the trend and look to buy the dips in an uptrend based onother methods which are outside a break out trade set up in this case and buy the breaks of resistance through Asian range highs. OR you can say that if price goes down you will be in a counter trend phases of movement and look to trade a break down but know that it is counter trend.

So now I know which way price is going I have the option to leave this or trade this pattern set up depending on your trading style and methodology. I trade both trend and counter trend.

Price breaks down out of overnight range lows and gives me a counter trend indiction based off the 240 min charts price action. So a short is fine for me in this case.

Following the break out rules, as price breaks support lows I'm then looking for a pullback on my lowest entry time frame first.

My short trigger level was 136.89 and as price retraced a little more deeply I was able to refine my break out set up with a Fib retracement set up with an entry at 139.90 stops at 137.35

Using your chart and the support levels as you have ID'ed them your support level is broken and then you are looking for a pullback entry and is below the break out low, stops go past the highest point of the retracement after the break out. on your chart that is below 136.50.

My lowest time frame is an 89 tick chart whcih on my data and charting is about the same as a 2-3 min chart... 5 mins a little too close to a 15 min chart and doesn offer up a decent lower tiem frame entry for me.

Right now I'm looking for a resumption of the up trend, looking to buy the dips in an uptrend and at the time of this writing has not yet confirmed a desumption for me.



Quoting bob_inabottle
Disliked
Hey Phil

Thanks for the link to the vid's... very clear and well thought out.

Can I please ask a few questions about how you would view things?

Attached is todays EUR/JPY 5 min chart, The orange line is the Asian low, price makes a lower low then pulls back so....

1. Do you enter after re-cross of the Asian low or
2. Do you enter after it breaks the new lower low (purple line)

How long do you wait for this kind of set up? US close? UK close? What do you do about trading if the Asian session is in the middle of day be fores range? go to...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #22
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  • Aug 4, 2009 8:08am Aug 4, 2009 8:08am
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Hi folks this is how I see GBPUSD right now...

Trend is up and although you cant see it on the 240 (top left) there is a larger Ascending triangle patter which this trending move has triggered a break out. Assessing for resumption of break out move or false break out which might tkae some time to decelop

Right now the trend bias is up and looking for long with the trend trades. 60 min charts highlighting my levels fo the Overnight range which has been chopping around through the UK morning session as well. as a result expended my res highs to include the false break out earlier in the day.

Price still in a range and running from high to lows of range and back again.

This is offering up a with the trend break out through the highs or a counter trend trade on a break down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: FF-GBP-04-aug-09.gif
Size: 41 KB
 
 
  • Post #23
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  • Aug 4, 2009 11:08am Aug 4, 2009 11:08am
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Hi Phil:
Thanks for your great contributions, that's why I wanted to start this thread, I think this can be a very profitable method of trading and Phil gives some of the best information that can be found on the web.

Phil - This wouldn't be a breakout thread without a question about trade times, LOL. You mentioned on a different thread that you use from 10pm-7am UK times for your bracket. For once and only once in this thread I hope, LOL , what does this transfer to EDT, which the east coast of US is in now. Hopefully this will be the one answer needed and no other questions will come from this.

Bob - Great to hear from you sir, as soon as I'm sure on the correct bracket times, I'll start to post, hope you're doing well

I've posted and indicator that shows all swing highs and swing lows thanks to OntheMark, who posted it at a different thread. Please try to keep this thread on Phil's system only, no indicators that don't pertain to his way of trading please.

Jim
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 PivotHighLow.mq4   3 KB | 302 downloads
 
 
  • Post #24
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2009 2:24pm Aug 4, 2009 2:24pm
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
OK I guess you know what I'm going to say to this one.

Although I refer to the Asian session range, the ranges I look at are based on price not time with the majority of the price action being sideways during the Asian session.

The ranging price action can start before the Asian session and go on long after the finnish of the Asian session as is often the case.

So range based on price not time... price is ranging when its going side neither making HH HL or LH LL

And for one time only I NEVER bracket a range

UK hours are at present on British Summer Time (BST) which is GMT +1

Quoting bigjim1958
Disliked
Phil - This wouldn't be a breakout thread without a question about trade times, LOL. You mentioned on a different thread that you use from 10pm-7am UK times for your bracket. For once and only once in this thread I hope, LOL , what does this transfer to EDT, which the east coast of US is in now. Hopefully this will be the one answer needed and no other questions will come from this.

Jim
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2009 4:23pm Aug 4, 2009 4:23pm
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Quoting Newtron Bomb
Disliked
OK I guess you know what I'm going to say to this one.

Although I refer to the Asian session range, the ranges I look at are based on price not time with the majority of the price action being sideways during the Asian session.

The ranging price action can start before the Asian session and go on long after the finnish of the Asian session as is often the case.

So range based on price not time... price is ranging when its going side neither making HH HL or LH LL

And for one time only I NEVER bracket a range

UK hours are at present on...
Ignored
Hi Phil:
Thanks for your response. This question has haunted me since I discovered your videos and posts and it still does, I think that's why I started this thread. I understand HH and LL to determine the range. Which ones stumps me. Is it the last HH or LL before the Asian session and the frist HH or LL after? If I'm way off please correct. Feeling like class dunce here, but can't grasp it.

Jim
 
 
  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:15pm Aug 4, 2009 10:15pm
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Hi folks:
Don't know why the admins moved this to the commercial forum, I actually started this thread so we could talk about it for free. Well so be it, I'll start posting trades tomorrow and everyone feel free to comment, etc. Good luck and many pips

Jim
 
 
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:16am Aug 5, 2009 4:16am
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
In an up trend using the 60 min chart normally I look for HH HL then LH HL

The first HH isusually the previous days high but not always the case

A secondary definition is to look for a double touch of a high and a double touch of a low... I personally find this a little vague as a definition as per the text book description but useful to ID a sideways pattern that is a little rough around the edges

Finally if its just not obvious at all I look for a narrow band of trading activity which would usually represent about 30-40% of an average days move which for me means there is 60-70% potential left in a days movements

Quoting bigjim1958
Disliked
Hi Phil:
Thanks for your response. This question has haunted me since I discovered your videos and posts and it still does, I think that's why I started this thread. I understand HH and LL to determine the range. Which ones stumps me. Is it the last HH or LL before the Asian session and the frist HH or LL after? If I'm way off please correct. Feeling like class dunce here, but can't grasp it.

Jim
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:21am Aug 5, 2009 4:21am
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Today we have several of the 2nd definition I use... which is multiple touches of a high and a low... in most cases this is also yesterdays highs and yesterdays lows

So while we haev some trending movements during the Asian session period price is still contained within the slightly larger consol. patterns and I'm on the sidelines looking and waiting for a break out movement

Quoting Newtron Bomb
Disliked
In an up trend using the 60 min chart normally I look for HH HL then LH HL

The first HH isusually the previous days high but not always the case

A secondary definition is to look for a double touch of a high and a double touch of a low... I personally find this a little vague as a definition as per the text book description but useful to ID a sideways pattern that is a little rough around the edges

Finally if its just not obvious at all I look for a narrow band of trading activity which would usually represent about 30-40% of an average days...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:39am Aug 5, 2009 6:39am
  •  howard
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: howard | 1,681 Posts
Quoting bigjim1958
Disliked
Hi Phil:
Thanks for your great contributions, that's why I wanted to start this thread, I think this can be a very profitable method of trading and Phil gives some of the best information that can be found on the web.

Phil - This wouldn't be a breakout thread without a question about trade times, LOL. You mentioned on a different thread that you use from 10pm-7am UK times for your bracket. For once and only once in this thread I hope, LOL , what does this transfer to EDT, which the east coast of US is in now. Hopefully this will be the one answer...
Ignored
Without regards to other factors which Phil explains, 10pm to 7am UK time corresponds with 5pm to 2am NY time
Regards
 
 
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:09am Aug 5, 2009 7:09am
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Quoting howard
Disliked
Without regards to other factors which Phil explains, 10pm to 7am UK time corresponds with 5pm to 2am NY time
Ignored
Hi Howard, Thanks

Jim
 
 
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:31am Aug 5, 2009 11:31am
  •  BostonForex
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 209 Posts
Quoting bigjim1958
Disliked
Hi Folks:
I was wondering if there is any interest in a thread dedicated to Phil Newton's breakout strategy. He used to post here as Newtron Bomb but is gone. He has a pay for sight now, but I am interested in seeing if anyone has either tested his method out or is currently using it. It's a breakout, pullback, breakout method based on swing high, swing low of the Asian session. I'd like to have a discussion without having to pay his monthly fee. All feedback or suggestions that stick to his specifics are welcome.

Jim
Ignored
Phil is a great trader and genuinely cares about his followers' success.

Very rarely in this industry do you find a mentor who actually cares and isn't in it for the money (from their services).

He's honest and flexible -- If his stuff isn't for you, he's rational and understands.
 
 
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:48pm Oct 1, 2009 1:48pm
  •  smikester
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 8,618 Posts
Wondering what Phil Newton's take is, on this. I think it's going to break down, big.
Gone to a better place
 
 
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Jul 18, 2010 5:48pm Jul 18, 2010 5:48pm
  •  fxpilot
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Surf The Waves | 177 Posts
Anyone still using this strategy?
 
 
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:50pm Jul 19, 2010 7:50pm
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Hi FXPilot:
I was getting ready to demo this strategy and I found out that Phil no longer teaches this on his website, they have moved onto something else. The site says the strategy is still good, but they have found something better. I feel bad, I really enjoyed his videos, didn't feel like he was a slick salesman at all. Still haven't made up my mind, like to find someone more expierenced to talk to.

Jim
 
 
  • Post #35
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2010 9:55am Jul 20, 2010 9:55am
  •  fxpilot
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Surf The Waves | 177 Posts
Thanks for your response. I also discovered that Phil had moved on to another strategy. Like you, I am trying to find someone who has consistently applied this method with success. It has great potential and should continue to work well.

Why would Phil abandon this strategy after all the time and effort he placed into his videos, years of research and teachings. It would be great to find out why?
 
 
  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:17am Jul 20, 2010 10:17am
  •  Newtron Bomb
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Quoting fxpilot
Disliked
Thanks for your response. I also discovered that Phil had moved on to another strategy. Like you, I am trying to find someone who has consistently applied this method with success. It has great potential and should continue to work well.

Why would Phil abandon this strategy after all the time and effort he placed into his videos, years of research and teachings. It would be great to find out why?
Ignored

Hi There,

Why change? Why not?

Doesn't mean that a break out trade doesn't work any more, it just means that I'm trading a different way.

There are so many ways to skin the trading cat and when one method is compared to another, does strategy A make more money than strategy B? Its then a simple choice to move to a different strategy if the results are far better.

I don't hop around from strategy to strategy like many folks and I envisage being with my current method for many years to come.

Personally the change was a difficult one to make having had my strategy down for a long long time and moving away from it was like breaking up a long lasting and successful relationship.

When developing this strategy I wanted to move outside of my usual comfort zone and away from more standard interpretation of TA.

After 15 years of having bran flakes for breakfast... I thought I would try porridge.

Something better came along and it is as simple as that.

Do break outs still work. Yes.

Do other TA methods work. Of course.

Happy trading
Phil
 
 
  • Post #37
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:06pm Jul 20, 2010 7:06pm
  •  fxpilot
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Surf The Waves | 177 Posts
Hey Phil,

Great to see you are still around. Do you know anyone who has continued to use your breakout system successfully?
 
 
  • Post #38
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2010 8:06pm Jul 27, 2010 8:06pm
  •  fxpilot
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Surf The Waves | 177 Posts
Lets try again. Anyone still using this strategy?
 
 
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:15pm Jul 29, 2010 8:15pm
  •  bigjim1958
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 376 Posts
Hi there:
I guess it's hard to have people follow a system when the originator moves on. It's a shame, his teaching is excellent, I really enjoyed learning from him but hopefully someone is profitable with it and will post here.

Jim
 
 
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Aug 3, 2010 3:19am Aug 3, 2010 3:19am
  •  fxpilot
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Surf The Waves | 177 Posts
This strategy has produced some good trades over the last 2 weeks.
 
 
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