DislikedWay of the turtle is a good book btw, let's see if this link works
http://books.google.com/books?id=C3O...um=3&ct=resultIgnored
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DislikedWay of the turtle is a good book btw, let's see if this link works
http://books.google.com/books?id=C3O...um=3&ct=resultIgnored
DislikedThe million dollar question. IF I had that figured out I would not be futzing around here .Ignored
DislikedJust reminded me —ScamI saw a nice 4-part video series about exit strategies, here's part 1, you can get to all 3 remaining parts from there... Just in case you're interested.
In fact I _do_ believe in discretionary trading (I guess this is what we're talking about), the only thing that bothers me is that you have to spend countless hours in front of your computer to "backtest" that system that's called "my own brain & guts"Ignored
Dislikedmakes sense if he's selling or promoting something..........so is he ?Ignored
DislikedI don't believe a mechanical system is the way to achieve success. If it were that easy no one could make money in the markets because no one would lose.
This week, on the First Strike trades that are well into profit now, it seems ludicrous to me to stay mechanical in the approach to the system, even when it becomes clear that the trend may be changing and is heading back and taking profit away. Why not take profit? Why sit and watch price go back and stop you out and say "shoot, well I followed the system"?
It also seems ridiculous to enter...Ignored
DislikedThanks for the link, seems like I have this e-book somewhere on my hard-drive, and will study the position sizing part...Ignored
Dislikedi did not read the replies bellow this post but i will take some popcorn.Ignored
DislikedNice one, thanks... May I ask — what's the hope than? If something that performs good on a backtest doesn't guarantee future performance (and it actually doesn't), why not just take FSP and make some money while it seems to work? Why backtest at all?
No sarcasm, just would be grateful to hear you expand your point...Ignored
DislikedI don't believe a mechanical system is the way to achieve success. If it were that easy no one could make money in the markets because no one would lose.Ignored
QuoteDislikedThis week, on the First Strike trades that are well into profit now, it seems ludicrous to me to stay mechanical in the approach to the system, even when it becomes clear that the trend may be changing and is heading back and taking profit away. Why not take profit? Why sit and watch price go back and stop you out and say "shoot, well I followed the system"?
It also seems ridiculous to enter a trade when a 1hr system trigger has happened (IE first strike closing over the trip line). Why not take the signal as an opportunity and look for a higher...
QuoteDislikedDiscipline to me is the ability to recognize you mistimed an entry or formed the wrong hypothesis, and force yourself to cut the loss short before it hits the stop loss. Discipline to me is not the ability to strictly adhere to a mechanical system even when all the signs are telling you a very nice profit is about to turn into a loss. That seems more like ignorance than discipline (no offense intended to anyone here, it is possible to be extremely intelligent yet be ignorant about something specific).
QuoteDislikedIf only it were that easy to code up some ea's, perform back test on 90% model quality data, and then hit buy or sell when the system said so.
Dislikedmakes sense if he's selling or promoting something..........so is he ?Ignored
DislikedThe million dollar question. IF I had that figured out I would not be futzing around here .
Price behavior around pivots, support and resistance (both horizontal and diagonal), big impact fundamental changes, gut feeling, I don't know. I do know it's a lot harder to go broke by taking profit.Ignored
QuoteDislikedBut, I do not trade for a living yet, so take what I say with a grain of salt. And also remember, if the majority lose, perhaps it makes sense to not do what the majority are saying to do.
DislikedI think what tdion means is, we've already proven the long term results from FSP are fudged. They've only been working for a very short time. This does not mean that the strategy works. This means it could very well be luck(it also doesn't mean it MUST be due to luck, just that we don't have enough data to discount that possibility)
When something performs well in a backtest, there's no guarantee that they will continue working. Think of it as driving a car( a cliche i know). You've been driving for 10 years without crashing. That doesn't mean...Ignored
DislikedHe charges $$ for his seminars.
Also, you apparently can't replicate his results(this is from his blog) unless you have his money management system(hint, hint).
He allegedly sold it to a company for 10k.
So yes, he does sell stuff.Ignored
DislikedI wasn't aware of that.
Where are the links to the Seminars and his MM algo?Ignored
QuoteDislikedyou need to be on his mailing list to get info for his meetups
QuoteDislikedalso, i seem to have misquoted his price for his algo
http://infiniteyieldforex.blogspot.c...y%20Management
QuoteDislikedMy position size is based directly proportional to the probabilities of the specific trade I am taking. As I am aware of the precise edge of my systems, I can be much more precise than someone who has the rules for the trade, but not the exact figures for its edge(s).
DislikedBased on this quote
his MM method sounds a lot like kelly (which is basically optimal if you know the possibilities).
One thing that is unclear for me is how can he know the probabilities for each trade. He can have historical probabilities but they mean nothing. Or he can have probabilities based on volatility which is much more likely. Probably it has something to do with calculating optimal position size through kelly like algorithm with probabilities weighted by volatility but that's just my guess based on the above quote.
btw, I have experimented...Ignored
DislikedNote that I tested the method with simple percentage risk method and the results were still positive so it's not just about his MM algo.Ignored
DislikedHe can't be using kelly. Because he (claims to) follow his system perfectly, every one of his trades have a pre-defined EV. The kelly system being fed this EV(which is a constant) will return a constant trading size. Thus, if he's using kelly as his MM, his equity curve would look the same as anyone who's trading a fixed size per trade strategy.
As hanover pointed out before, MMs don't help you increase your profits. They can't...it's not what they're meant to do. MMs simply aim to reduce your risk of ruin. Since reduced risk means reduced returns(diversification...Ignored