Fundamentally-The Euro Rally is Dead: | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Fundamentally speaking 17 replies

Fundamentally Speaking... 14 replies

The EUR/USD Rally-Still Dead? 23 replies

The Euro Rally Is Still Dead-coreCPI/TIC Update 3 replies

My MT4 demo is dead!! Help!! 8 replies

Fundamentally-The Euro Rally is Dead:

  • #61
  • Edited 1:00pm Dec 14, 2006 12:49pm | Edited 1:00pm
Just a couple of things to be aware of when trading this:

The Euro is sitting at about 3145 now. If you wanted to get in now-I don't think it would be a great trade. Why? Because u have to put your stop at like 80 and it's likely to hit some strong support around 25. I've been in it for awhile, so even if it hits 80 I got like 60 pips so i'm not worried. Could it go back to 80? Sure. It could go above that too...so if u didn't get in at or above 3175...I would wait for the break below 25. It's a much safer trade.

I'll tell u what I find the most interesting thing in currency right now. Look at the UK data-inflation the highest in years...jobs strong...it's almost a sure bet the BoE is gonna raise rates in Jan...so where's the pound goin? Nowhere. Why? Don't know...but someone's buyin $'s somewhere...
  • #62
  • Dec 14, 2006 1:01pm Dec 14, 2006 1:01pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Just a couple of things to be aware of when trading this:

The Euro is sitting at about 3145 now. If you wanted to get in now-I don't think it would be a great trade. Why? Because u have to put your stop at like 80 and it's likely to hit some strong support around 25. I've been in it for awhile, so even if it hits 80 I got like 60 pips so i'm not worried. Could it go back to 80? Sure. It could go above that too...so if u didn't get in at or above 3175...I would wait for the break below 25. It's a much safer trade.

I'll tell u what I find the most interesting thing in currency right now. Look at the UK data-inflation the highest in years...jobs strong...it's almost a sure bet the BoE is gonna raise rates in Jan...so where's the pound goin? Nowhere. Why? Don't know...but someone's buyin $'s somewhere...
yep, 3125 is the low on the 10th - 11th.
  • #63
  • Dec 14, 2006 1:43pm Dec 14, 2006 1:43pm
Hearing that the NY Fed will release the Empire manufacturing index in the next 15 minutes since its was mistakely posted to the NY Fed's website earlier today. The reported level was 23.3 vs. the expected 17.7 and prior 26.7. Most of the street is now probably aware of this and that is why EUR is near its lows.
  • #64
  • Dec 14, 2006 1:52pm Dec 14, 2006 1:52pm
<TABLE id=NewsIndex style="FONT-SIZE: 7.5pt; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: groove; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: groove; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: groove; BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR style="COLOR: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e3e7"><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top noWrap width=60 halign="left">14:52</TD><TD>NY Fed Empire sub indices are mixed; futur index at 42.6 after 34.9; new orders index at 25.1 after 22.4; employment index fell to 14.1 from 24.5; prices paid fell to 28.1 from 34.9; so some good forward looking indicators, but weakness in employment and prices paid are likley to outweigh and limit dollar gains from the better than expected report. </TD></TR><TR style="COLOR: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top noWrap width=60 halign="left">14:49</TD><TD>NY Empire index at 23.1 vs. prior 26.7, but better than forecast 17.7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  • #65
  • Edited 6:28am Dec 15, 2006 5:22am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Just a couple of things to be aware of when trading this:

The Euro is sitting at about 3145 now. If you wanted to get in now-I don't think it would be a great trade. Why? Because u have to put your stop at like 80 and it's likely to hit some strong support around 25. I've been in it for awhile, so even if it hits 80 I got like 60 pips so i'm not worried. Could it go back to 80? Sure. It could go above that too...so if u didn't get in at or above 3175...I would wait for the break below 25. It's a much safer trade.

I'll tell u what I find the most interesting thing in currency right now. Look at the UK data-inflation the highest in years...jobs strong...it's almost a sure bet the BoE is gonna raise rates in Jan...so where's the pound goin? Nowhere. Why? Don't know...but someone's buyin $'s somewhere...
Wow NewstraderFX this is the moment we'r looking for the EURO breach the 1.3125 what is the initial target?
  • #66
  • Edited 10:46am Dec 15, 2006 10:12am | Edited 10:46am
Broke 25 after the report and hit the next area of resistance @ 3070-then held for a while @ 90.

Where to from here? Can't say for sure, but i'm HOPIN for a break below 70. Once it gets to the upper 60's u could be good to go-the thing is if it breaks a bit above 70 again-get out with a couple pips loss. Then, just look for it to get just below 70 again to get short.

No garuntee it will get to 70 so don't short while it's in the 90's. IF 70 can break-the next area of strong support is prob around 2940-50

BTW-i'm totally amazed at how the $ is reacting. Really, it should have continued to weaken off the core CPI data, but it looks like the TIC data has helped. Obviously, someone somewhere is buyin $'s...big time.
  • #67
  • Dec 15, 2006 10:20am Dec 15, 2006 10:20am
Can't have the dollar tanking whilst the big guns are in China......
  • #68
  • Dec 15, 2006 10:54am Dec 15, 2006 10:54am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Broke 25 after the report and hit the next area of resistance @ 3070-then held for a while @ 90.

Where to from here? Can't say for sure, but i'm HOPIN for a break below 70. Once it gets to the upper 60's u could be good to go-the thing is if it breaks a bit above 70 again-get out with a couple pips loss. Then, just look for it to get just below 70 again to get short.

No garuntee it will get to 70 so don't short while it's in the 90's. IF 70 can break-the next area of strong support is prob around 2940-50

BTW-i'm totally amazed at how the $ is reacting. Really, it should have continued to weaken off the core CPI data, but it looks like the TIC data has helped. Obviously, someone somewhere is buyin $'s...big time.
Industrial Production has also helped (came out 0.2% vs fc of 0.0%). Still, with the consumer still healthy the FED will not be considering easing at present coz inflation risk are now less of an obstacle......
  • #69
  • Dec 15, 2006 11:06am Dec 15, 2006 11:06am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...vxc&refer=home

Here's the report from BB-it's a bit confusing, but I think this the important thing to look at:

So far this year, consumer prices are rising at a 2.2 percent rate, compared with a 3.8 percent rate in same period last year. Core prices are increasing at a 2.6 percent rate, after a 2.2 percent pace during the first 11 months of 2005.

So it looks like core CPI is rising higher this year then for the same period last year and that's it's still way above the Fed's preferred target of 1-2%.

The November increase in core consumer prices during the 12 months ended in November was the smallest year-over-year gain since June, today's figures showed. September's 2.9 percent rise was the biggest 12-month jump since 1996.

So core CPI may be trending down, but the bottom line is that it's .4 higher then the same period last year. Certainly no indication yet that a rate cut is imminent. Definately not for March I would think. After that, maybe.

And yeah-the TIC data indicates huge foreign investment in equities and government paper...definately indicating where all the recent $ buying is coming from...
  • #70
  • Dec 15, 2006 1:14pm Dec 15, 2006 1:14pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...vxc&refer=home

Here's the report from BB-it's a bit confusing, but I think this the important thing to look at:

So far this year, consumer prices are rising at a 2.2 percent rate, compared with a 3.8 percent rate in same period last year. Core prices are increasing at a 2.6 percent rate, after a 2.2 percent pace during the first 11 months of 2005.

So it looks like core CPI is rising higher this year then for the same period last year and that's it's still way above the Fed's preferred target of 1-2%.

The November increase in core consumer prices during the 12 months ended in November was the smallest year-over-year gain since June, today's figures showed. September's 2.9 percent rise was the biggest 12-month jump since 1996.

So core CPI may be trending down, but the bottom line is that it's .4 higher then the same period last year. Certainly no indication yet that a rate cut is imminent. Definately not for March I would think. After that, maybe.

And yeah-the TIC data indicates huge foreign investment in equities and government paper...definately indicating where all the recent $ buying is coming from...

trade deficit and TIC data is related especially looking at U.S. and China imports/exports. China is not going to convert the dollars into yuan, but rather invest it in U.S. market, today's TIC data was huge, but not enough to cover the trade deficit to have a sizable move.

There was an article by financial times where Russia and other OPEC nations are diversifying from the dollar for the euro, and greenspan approved of this gesture by commenting such diversification.

btw, next fib daily retracement/support level is 1.3030 (38.2%)

at this point, I do not believe the fed will cut rates early next year, maybe mid year in june. today's CPI may be slow growth but slashing of price for retail sales and low oil prices maybe be accountable.
  • #71
  • Dec 19, 2006 1:35pm Dec 19, 2006 1:35pm
quote: WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Total spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan during fiscal 2007 will be at least $110 billion...:surprised

lets say that 1 barell of oil is 55 usd, that means, they need to import 2 bilion crude oil from iraq,....and that needs to be something like,...o yee right free of charge ...to cover the loss....

eur/usd at the end of year 2007 will be then something like 1.500-1.700 , and the cable something like 2.4-2.7...

not to mention they will cut interests rates, and the euro will raise them....agree?
its just money
  • #72
  • Dec 19, 2006 3:40pm Dec 19, 2006 3:40pm
the market, just like the road, is constantly changing. As a driver, one must constantly adapt, follow, and take action in correspondence with the changes.
  • #73
  • Last Post: Dec 20, 2006 4:03am Dec 20, 2006 4:03am
Lets wait for friday PCE no.
0 traders viewing now