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Objective Thinking And Trading

  • #221
  • Oct 4, 2021 2:15am Oct 4, 2021 2:15am
You know something's not quite right when you start seeing the fins ..........


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And the eavesdroppers ......


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And see the attitudes shift ......


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And so the droppers try harder ......


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And so people trying to learn run in circles trying to reverse engineer what they see others doing.


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Hehehehehe. People can learn, but attitudes are another thing altogether.


People are funny and fickle.


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Can you deal with that ??!!


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Hehehehehehe.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #222
  • Oct 4, 2021 8:34pm Oct 4, 2021 8:34pm
Oh, will you look at that, Gold DID go up after all. Who'd have thought?!


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #223
  • Oct 4, 2021 11:36pm Oct 4, 2021 11:36pm
No matter how many people I meet, so many say the same kind of thing - "There's always something more to learn". I guess, in certain contexts, sure. But when does it just become an exercise in futility because either you're just "following someone" or you believe more information will improve things?

The same can be said on the OTHER end of the scale. When too little introductory, preparatory and researching thinking is present. Eg. - if someone is just handed a full layout (or template) or schematic of "how to trade" you still need to go and become familiar with and get to know all the different parts of what is there in front of you. So whether you create your own blueprint or use someone else's, there IS thinking going into the entire process...... otherwise you'd never learn ANYTHING AND retain it. So a person needs to acknowledge the two very different forms of thinking that are present in their trading activities - the 'background' stuff and the 'in the moment' stuff.

I think people misinterpret many things I say or speak about on this topic. If you are thinking too much in that moment right before you press buy or sell (etc) then you are sabotaging yourself. So THIS is NOT the type of thinking I am referring to when I talk about thinking. The type I am talking about is the 'behind the scenes' thinking that MOST people grossly take for granted ......

Take for granted

  1. 1.
    fail to properly appreciate (someone or something), especially as a result of overfamiliarity.
    "the comforts that people take for granted"
  2. 2.
    assume that something is true without questioning it.


So while I am between trades, I thought I'd share this with you. It's not new or unique but plays a role in understanding how the real world interacts with "your charts".

Please have a read off the link below ....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2012/12/15/the-most-powerful-pivot-level/?sh=6ebb72ee38ef

Some people might think of me as rude or disrespectful, but really, if you knew my background, you'd see that I just don't tolerate much BS from people who have forgotten what it means to be 'at school' or to BE schooled or to genuinely learn. While I was working the trading pit, many of you probably weren't even born. So I am not very impressed by what others call "impressive".

Real Life MUST translate onto your chart otherwise you're merely chasing someone's white rabbit. Period the end.


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #224
  • Oct 7, 2021 7:10pm Oct 7, 2021 7:10pm
Lots of people wanting to learn how to trade these days. And while many are trying to find their own niche, I see lots of wannabe's trying to give "advice" when they really should be just taking a backseat and shut their mouth and learn themselves.

Case in point .....

Someone on another thread was asking about head and shoulder pattern formation and trading.

Here's what they asked ...

"Would you consider this as a h&s pattern you might enter on, right at the top of todays highs based on a 5 m chart and price exceeding yesterdays high? Also based on the time being 3-4am est (before ny session), and price reaching the shoulder levels from Sept 17 and 20 from a much bigger h&s pattern?

Or do you look for more 'solid' patters which show up over a few days on the 15m chart or longer?"

And here's the charts this person offered ....


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The main problem with asking a question like this is NOT the question itself but who you direct it toward. For eg, a person who doesn't use (OR know HOW to use) the 5min chart is naturally going to respond with something that excuses or dismisses its usefulness. And the other person's response went along in that way...

"No, as I would never base my analysis on a 5 minute chart. Not to say I haven't in the past, but you don't need to look at anything below 15 Minute, your mind will not be able to process all the information on that small time frame."

Trading is not just about one thing or another it's about all things relevant. And the longer you do it the more you see how some things are MORE important at certain times than others.

The 5min chart is not what I would call a great structure view unless you are spread scalping. But seeing as most smaller traders don't do it this way we'll move on.

A 5min view (or equivalent in Renko or range bars or Tick Totality charts) is great for close up entry, clearer view of perceived risk vs actual risk (what you think will happen vs what does happen, in view of spikes etc and news events etc) and can, if one uses an RROI approach (Rate of return on investment - "how much + how quick") be a sound strategy for close quarters scalping or extended trade setups of say, 30pips or more.

The issue I have with these wannabe's is this - usually what they're talking about only appears "new" to a new trader. It's almost NEVER new or unique, they merely blend up the facts and basic characteristics and then rename them to sound 'interesting' or 'better'. Calling yesterday's London session internal low or high, a shoulder or some other thing. Now names aside, what contribution does that move make towards the overall situation? THIS is the real question.

The other smaller issue is wannabe's trying to "teach" what they clearly do NOT understand. For most traders, at some point, they realize that randomness is a factor of the order of time. So "the pattern" is not something to characterize based on the name you give it, but through the market activity and its order of time. "Time" here being .... 'which situation is going to occur next?'. When you start toying with time of day and then conjure up a connection between the "pattern" and timeliness then you are misconstruing what is happening. So that shoulder head shoulder that you're laser focused on, melts into something else and you've missed your opportunity for an easy trade.

This is where your gut instinct NEEDS to override these wannabe's. If your gut says "What's wrong with that entry or setup?" ... instead of looking at the clown in the wannabe hat, look at your own charts and look at that situation from as many perspectives as you can think up. THIS is what trading is about, when doing your research and testing. Not what some fool over "there" somewhere is saying.

I may not post on that thread anymore but that's no reason to stay quiet about idiots and wannabe's who have maybe 5 minutes of experience in the real world.

So you know what I'm going to say next here, right?

DO your own observations, research and testing and stop listening to fools and dickheads. They're not you and do not think like you nor see the world as you do, so it stands reasonable to conclude that their pain threshold will not be yours. It's not their trading account it's YOURS. So take FULL responsibility and leave the fools and wannabe's where they belong.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #225
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:17am Oct 10, 2021 12:17am
Occasionally, I am asked the same kind of questions. And sometimes people listen to what I am saying and other times they don't.

Here and now, I am going to talk about something that is ABSOLUTELY important .... no ifs buts or maybes. If you do not respect and understand this well enough, then I suggest you stop everything else and focus on examining it further. Why? What you are and how you operate on a daily basis, is based on this. What I'm about to talk about is not "wishful thinking" or "psych babble" or "scientific blah blah blah". No. It's something that affects you everyday and also impacts what you think, how you think and how you design your "preferences" and "priorities".

Here we go ....

Recently, an aspiring trader had reviewed some of my contributions and came upon the area where I spoke of concentric circles and how I use them in my everyday trading. Firstly, people need to understand that a price chart is designed to be viewed from a 360 degree perspective. People assume that just because it's on a digitized screen, that it's only 2 dimensional in space and function. This is a mistake. There's a real world out there that 'does stuff' that, at the very least, contributes to what ends up in front of you on that chart. So let's throw away that assumption and move on.

Now this new trader was curious and perplexed as to why and how someone could use concentric circles to trade. And after many hours of back and forth, here's what I explained .....

Concentric circles in simple form are just drawn circles that share a common relationship. Perhaps they're the same distance apart, or, they're the same size in diameter by division. But whatever the basic parameter used, it forms a bond between them all. In trading it's exactly the same.


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Trading any finance based environment offers the participant the choice of how they scale their perception; their view on what is in front of them and what they plan on doing with it. For me, I use them to provide a top down and then bottom up view style approach to my trading. By doing this I can seamlessly relate to markets, time frames and even useful price markers that are important (to someone important).

Most people I see around, both today and in the past, never truly appreciate that a market is many things and you need to become flexible in what you do and HOW you do it. Many simply give up their attempts at trading because they won't learn and bend. But even more disturbing, is that people seem to have forgotten they have a brain and need to use it and stretch it and fashion a new way to use it EVERY DAY, or, its abilities will leave you and you become dumb from the waist up. Not my opinion, a fact of life on Earth.

So most people chase other people and ideas and "ways" to do something where they cheat -> both themselves and their efforts and so when a big enough change occurs, their outcomes usually wither and die. Looooong time ago, in a decade faaaar far away from most these days, I realized that the ONLY way to perpetuate a way to trade any market and every market, was to BE that flexibility. Not just "have a way" but actually take on the life of that flexibility. What the hell are you talking about Peter?

I am talking about using an approach that resembles how a person thinks, feels, behaves, learns and makes choices. I'm sure by now you've noticed that "trading" is a bit clunky, a bit "odd" or a bit uncomfortable to do for a long time without a break. Some might say it 'feels unnatural'. Truth is you'd be right, from a certain point of view. Not talking about the 'looking at screens all day" stuff, surely by now we ALL know that's not great for our health. No. I'm referring to someone trying to wrap their head around time frames and multiple time frame analysis and Tick charts and multiple converging markets and transitional trading and sister markets and even something as simple as a simple moving average or a single price point. Pheww !! Yeah you see what I mean? It can and does get rather complicated VERY quickly. (And I REALLY do sympathize with people trying to use these phones now to do trading. All I will say is --- it's an expensive toy.) For me the use of these phones for trading is a basic argument of "Could vs Should". But that's for another time.

So for me, the missing link for most people is their basic ignorance of how they operate.

Here's another concept diagram to show a view of it ....


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So now I have shown 2 specific picture diagrams. No not my pics BUT they show a concept view of something important. Concepts will always be more centrally relevant because the details need somewhere to live and the concept offer that place for the information.

So now, stop. And think about the last time you were trying to see how "that person" was doing that thing they do. Why was that indicator there? What's its relevance? One of the problems I see is this - most people have not yet outgrown the "at school" phase. They're waiting for someone to tell them what to do, when to do it, where to do it and how to do it. Living and thinking in this state is not capable of helping you learn because you are not taking responsibility for yourself, you want someone else to do this for you.

Another part of all this is seeing the many subjects that are present in a situation....... ANY situation. By subjects I am referring to subjects of learning - language, biology, mathematics, several of the hard sciences etc. These are ever present. Why do these matter? Many people I have met who have tried / are trying to learn how to trade are trying to force a way to think exactly like the person before them - either the person 'trying to teach them' or the person who introduced them to it initially. This is a mistake. Why? Putting aside your "life story", you are not that person. At basic levels you're the same but the entire 'personal life' side of your life creates many different and individual "ways" you live everyday.

A good read ............
https://www.basicknowledge101.com/subjects/simultaneous.html

So attempting to "do as they do" will never work. "Where they draw their line on the chart" may have some meaning and carry a reason for its use, but people process meaning and "reasons" according to something else. Now we move into the area of the concentric circles.

Markets have many invested parties and if you want to work with them you need something that does most/all the work for you, where it works WITH that market. Speaking out of turn, saying a time frame or indication is useless without proper use of its context is just immature and ignorant. Trying to draw a straight line while ignoring that brick wall is foolish. So you must bend and be flexibility to gain a better understanding so you can problem solve ......

Visual Eg. 1 ......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfAL3wSM3HQ

Visual Eg. 2 .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceePPKao7is

The nature of concentric circles offers a way to grasp layering (AKA time framing) and levering (market correlation and relationships) as well as trade setup design and many other wonderful things.

For me, the concept of the circles and their use is the most important thing here. It means I can look at just one market or many and I can see their relationships without too much fuss.

If you truly want to learn how to trade, you must treasure that brain and use it well.

Study the concept of the concentric circles so your brain can learn to think in layers and phases.

For this I would sincerely recommend you put down your phone and grab pencil pen and paper and go 'old school'. Done consistently, you will learn faster and more creatively this way.


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #226
  • Edited 1:23am Oct 11, 2021 1:06am | Edited 1:23am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNhsze0jIcc

Mental Concept Modelling and Building .....

Most people don't take the time to consider what they're getting into. When it comes to trading even more so. I had someone ask me recently about training the mind to trade. Apart from time and effort, each person's mind works in the context of what is available. This is the reason why we get 'Beautiful Mind' people and why we also have the other end of the scale. In my experience unless you have literally, physically, been kicked in the head by a horse or have experienced some other type of brain injury/damage, then your brain and mind can deal with most things. And trading is no different.

I wanted to write this yesterday but ran out of time so here we go ...

If you're still trying to learn as "others" have done before you then maybe this will help. Your mind, works in layers, going from general to extremely specific. This has been known and understood for a very long time but it's really only in the last 100yrs or so that "science" has caught up.

The concept of trading is based on form and function, as is everything material or physical. But your mind has many ways it can learn. However, most people never seek them out.

In the previous post I spoke of using a learning process that resembles how a person operates. And I gave a specific example in the form of concentric circles.



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This is a language of concepts. Of space and form. Now just sit and think for a moment ..... if you are a private individual trader, isn't this what you are dealing with when you look at a chart? And if you mainly use a chart then you are fixed to using that view.

Time frames, price levels, other markets, opportunity perceived. All important to a trader.

Something I noticed years ago was how long it was taking me to learn certain basic lessons about trading. Why some things were "easy" and other things were not.

And at some point, I stopped and realized that I was trying to force learning instead of arranging the information in a way so my brain could process it effectively and efficiently.

An observation I have made about myself and other people - Many people assume that a trader just sits there and stares at a chart all day. This is such nonsense. The only thing you'll achieve in doing that is end up on the eye transplant list. No. People need to start appreciating how they operate, if they genuinely want to speed up their learning curve.

Circles are a natural part of Life. Forget fibonacci etc and go deeper and simpler. Basic shapes and curvatures are easier for the mind to process and value.

Since time and price are and can be used as 'layers' and circles are a basic natural form it is a great way to "help" your mind ease into the complexities of thinking about something beyond the usual - sleeping, eating and day to day activities.

There are layers in everything that we do. It's how we have built our cities, maintain and monitor our resources and live each day. (If you use you time to observe your day you will see layers everywhere).

For me, I sense that inside the world of trading, the "opportunity" is an overwhelming prospect and idea for people and they just want to rush in. But this honeymoon period ceases and then you are faced with the task of facing your fears/demons. For some it's about doing the work or risking something. But on the flip side, when you meet someone who has passed through the eye of the storm and come out the other side, you're quick to see that they had to work at their craft to get where they are.

So if you take a step back, you can witness many trying to fit a square peg through a round hole, without EVEN realizing what they're doing. Please understand that none of this is me 'lecturing you" here. I am using repetition so you bear witness to your own problems - short temper, impatience, selfish reasoning and others. It's the only way for you to break out of unhealthy thinking and appreciate your attributes - both natural and unnatural.

Concentric circles can be divided, multiplied, duplicated and can represent ONE situation on different levels or it can represent MANY situations in a single view.


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So now return to the idea of trading. I have met people who only trade one instrument and I have met people who trade MANY dozens of instruments. So putting aside forced circumstances, what is the difference between the two?

Could it be .... being organized?

I have traded for many years and I could not do it on the scale I do, without being organized.

Eventhough the following is not my personal picture, it's not far off what I use and so it shows you how this type of approach can help you build a trading base, not just a purely speculative activity.


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People have asked me if what I am talking about here is an indicator or something like that. The answer is no. It's a state of mind that gives you paths to get organized.

I have said many times that people need to "map" their market of choice. They need to build a blueprint of what they are observing, experiencing and learning. I use concentric circles as they offer a 1D, 2D or even 3D view of a market or even multiple markets at once.

It also teaches your mind to think in different ways. So a more creative person can learn how to be more 'logical/analytical" and vice versa.

I have been asked many times to share my own pics, or blueprint. Sorry, I don't do that and besides, it won't make a lot of sense to you as I have all sorts of things in there that only connect with what I do. So the next best thing is to do what I am doing here.... give you the concept and let your mind grow within your own activities.


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Price. Time. Chosen view (Eg time frame or price movement style). Overlapping markets (Eg. USD cash markets and Gold).

Money. Time. Day of Week.

Internal gaps and external gaps. Proposed highs and lows.

And the inverse of all of that above.

What I have shown here is not just to waste anyone's time. Nor is it to big note or 'showcase' my own trading. No.

People learn something faster when they understand the basic concept or idea and then build on that. But not when they try and cheat or 'fast track' that learning by imitating people or copying them. That's not learning that's mimicry and it ALWAYS makes a mess !!!!

You don't need ANYTHING with all of this except being willing and able to learn and the time and effort to put into it. And to do it for no other reason but to learn. THEN the "wants" will come. Unless you plan on winning the lottery, this is how learning has always been achieved.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #227
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:26pm Oct 11, 2021 8:26pm
Here's something I found interesting that maybe other people will find helpful too ....

Over the years there's been this myth that FX and certain other markets are "decentralized" or have no central 'place of residence". And since the inception of the Information Age, I STILL cannot believe that "teachers" "mentors" and a lot of the time, even the general public, cannot put 2 and 2 together.

LAYERS. YOU live in a world FULL of layers.

And one prime example of this, is in the fact that your trading is BASED on layers in every single avenue of attention.

Here's two links to show you that YOUR idea of centralized vs decentralized is a fantasy that you have been told SO MANY times that you actually believe it without question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Internet_exchange_points_by_size

https://www.internetexchangemap.com/

I find it remarkable how "mentors/teachers" of this industry still actually truly have no clue HOW the global financial markets went from the 80's model to the model we have now. "It didn't happen by itself people".

YOUR definition of "decentralized" needs updating.

While you're focused on your screen with a chart readout on it, the world ...... THE WORLD ...... has moved onto a different way to view centralized/decentralized.

For me, it's just silly ignorant people regurgitating the same BS without ANY fact checking and EVEN basic observation skills employed......... but you want to "teach someone". Hihihihihihi. Yeah OK.

So enough playing possum. There really should be a licence required for people to "teach/mentor". It reminds me of Chinese whispers.

With so many youtube trading freaks and all the other social media "people", how do people actually function?

Perception is everything with all this stuff.


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Does that really look random? Or disconnected? Or ....... decentralized in some unrelatable way?

For me, many times I have shown and talked about how the financial markets relate and how a single person can gain the inside track on ignorance.

But alas, even a simple concept such as global interconnectivity escapes people's "definition" of centralized vs decentralized.

Look familiar ? .......


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So enough with playing possum OK.

In the 21st century there's no excuse for chosen stupidity or ignorance.

Again, concept comes before information and knowledge. Concept will always outlive information.

The argument relating to FX being decentralized has always been a myth. If you understand ANYTHING about society, you will see this for yourself. However, the rising issue for people, is they choose convenience and laziness and end up with a rather undesirable effect = the death of their own human spirit ..... to ask questions, to investigate (to invest in your own gate = what does a gate DO and offer?) and to learn.

I don't care what anyone says, if you approach your trading as if "it's just a conveyor belt" then you are going to be ignorant of what goes on around you. And all you can do is react.

Anyway, learn or don't learn.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #228
  • Oct 12, 2021 12:07am Oct 12, 2021 12:07am
Everyday I find it more and more fascinating how people can make up more and more excuses why thinking is useless, pointless, unnecessary or a "bad idea".

Human history is cram packed to the brim with examples of stupidity and laziness masquerading as "I don't need to think". Thinking in many forms is a natural part of human existence and therefore cannot be avoided.

But the "child" keeps running from their responsibility - usually because they don't want to admit there's more to the situation.

So-called dumb/uneducated people only need to stop listening to their "peers". Being threatened by, or feeling insecure or vulnerable by what you don't know, is not going to help when someone you know needs your help.


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Food for thought. Hihihihihihihihii


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #229
  • Edited 3:16pm Oct 12, 2021 4:37am | Edited 3:16pm
Please accept my apologies.

Would someone please tell PeterCaleb that I removed the Seinfeld video about levels. Peter has me on ignore so I can't apologize to him directly.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #230
  • Oct 12, 2021 6:10pm Oct 12, 2021 6:10pm
Quoting TooSlow
Please accept my apologies. Would someone please tell PeterCaleb that I removed the Seinfeld video about levels. Peter has me on ignore so I can't apologize to him directly.


I want you to know that this thread is not about me. Nor another person but for placing in print what others do not already know or understand. Although I found the video you posted funny, in relation to the content here, I saw it more as a mocking of something that was shared. Thank you for deleting it.

I hope you continue to learn.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #231
  • Edited 11:04pm Oct 13, 2021 10:31pm | Edited 11:04pm
https://vimeo.com/337832673

OR

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eZehOiwwHmp85-QyC7QsJa7_3oixgJDQ/view?usp=sharing


"Learning how to trade" is less about how to "be a trader" and MORE about learning to activate your ability to see everything in front of you. I know many people these days don't know how to do this because firstly, they'd see no reason or point in arguing over such a simple idea. Secondly, they wouldn't be so quick to wave an opinion around as if THAT is going to change anything OR help OR improve the strength of their argument.

Here I want to show you some things that will go against what many will tell you. I love the game of Bullshit. Have you ever played it before? I love it because it's so ....... simple and honest.


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WOW !! That's a lot of results. And a lot of bullshit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6spBu2XAk4A

And now go read this and try that on ..... Read the "Abstract" part down the page.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340584729_How_do_Normal_Traders_and_Sharp_Traders_Make_Profits_in_the_Chinese_Security_Market

And now give this link a try ...

https://www.google.com/search?q=learn+how+to+trade+forex&ei=fZhnYcWmE-aO9u8PtIK4qAg&oq=learn+how+to+trade+forex&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYADIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQsAMQQzIQCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQzIQCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQzIQCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQzIQCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQ0oFCDgSATFKBAhBGABQAFgAYJsdaAFwAngAgAEAiAEAkgEAmAEAyAENwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz

WOW !!

And this one ..... And scroll down to witness the "exorbitant" amount of bullshit seeping off the page.

https://www.sharptrader.com/


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One of THE MAIN REASONS I have witnessed over the years in trading, as to why people get caught out is .....

Their consumer mentality and mindset. YES it is a real thing (For the love of God!!!). Where have people been living .... on Pluto?!!


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If you don't think this is relevant, you're a fool. The same marketing techniques and knowledge that is used by every industry these days is ALSO used by the financial industry.

"Oh they're my friend they would never do me any harm." .......... WHAT !!!!!

I find it disturbing that people do not understand what a lever is. Go look it up and learn. Google search for the word lever.

Since the time of Julius Caesar marketing has been everywhere. Probably even before that.

Here's something you SHOULD know (if you don't already) ....


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This is not a joke or some made up crap. FACT : YOU, as a consumer within society have been profiled.

So why, with millions and millions on the table, would the finance industry be ANY different?

IF you REALLY want to learn you need to practice how to distance yourself from the personalized side of "who" or "what" is in front of you. Not as a sociopath or psychopath or someone with an emotional disorder. No. Being objective, taking in everything to fill the entire picture with every piece where and when possible.

So you don't want to lose all your money trading hah? So how you going to do that when you cannot observe the true landscape.

As you know I NEVER advocate for brokers or traders and with that said, I continue that tradition by showing this video. So forget about the broker and just listen and learn about the industry and what you're involved in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNH_9Iaq6oY

At some point you're going to have to roll this beast onto its back and see and feel and smell its raw underbelly.

People STILL ask me to teach them but the problem is not on the chart ..... it's in your head.

Being a silly consumerite makes you weak, vulnerable and ultimately ignorant and VERY VERY open to manipulation and abuse.

I do not say to people "I'm a trader" as if that's my occupation. I am a person who looks for value. That's all. I don't look for "optimized trade entry" and the "profiterole breakout" or "Order popsickle Blocks" or bank panty line levels or "trend trades". No. VALUE. Always and only ever, value.

I don't generally use mechanical events or trading approaches but I do like to educate myself on topics that help me understand how to hunt.

Think about it.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #232
  • Oct 20, 2021 6:38am Oct 20, 2021 6:38am
I've said it before and I'll say it again for any who were not paying attention last time ....

Indicators are NOT suitable for trading. They are suitable for research, testing and attribution. It is a VERY real, very big problem when someone uses indications as 'signals' or 'real life'. They are insight and nothing more.

Your opinion doesn't count here because everyday the real world chews up and spits out people's opinions about topics like this. The 'insight' part of all this comes when the person internalizes what they have learned and then, they no longer "need" the actual indicator.

If you have not evolved and moved on from using a lot of indicators' indications, then you are showing proof that you have not learned and have NOT grown as a trader. It also shows you have not grown as a person.


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #233
  • Oct 25, 2021 12:03am Oct 25, 2021 12:03am
Over the weekend, a friend of mine was looking at this site and found it concerning how much people either didn't learn at school, or, have forgotten from their schooling days. One area specifically ..... maths.

Here's a good example .....

Everyone, at some point in their trading activity, comes across the "albatross" of trading - Strategy Win Strike Rate. This baby has made and lost fortunes over the decades and even today, people still believe it to be at the head of the table..... to be the most important thing.

But here's something most people never ever think about ..... a strike rate must have a corresponding strike price if it is to be considered real and serious.

Eg - a strategy with say, a 50% win strike rate, can go either way if you only look at wins vs losses. However the principle of a Win SR is to measure the price inline with its outcomes AND its possibilities. Sure you can "tweak" your money management this way or that way, but, at the end of the day, if you do not understand how strike of a price applies to your Win SR then you have little chance for the strategy to be malleable, to be adaptable and flexible. AND NO I'm not talking about round numbers or 50's and 100's.

To put this in basic language = IF you can have a strategy that generates an outcome of 50% Wins, then you can ALSO, equally, have a strategy that creates a 100% and 0% outcome of wins.

For many people I come across, they don't believe that any strategy can generate a 100% Win SR consistently, except for a 1 hit wonder trade, where the person places one trade and wins big and now has a 1 trade: 1x profit ratio. But you must understand the exponential nature of percentages and probabilities if you are to get out of the mud and into freshwater to swim with your trading.

Many I see want "answers" but there's little to no knowledge or wisdom in this approach. It doesn't teach you how to think or evaluate or to pursue what first is always possible, then feasible, then doable and then achievable through preparation and practice.

Every percentage between 0 to 100 (including 0 and 100) has to have a strike applied to it. What does this mean? It is a way in which you setup your approach to view and track what you want to do.

(At this point in explaining this, I need to stress that I'm NOT talking about backtesting or reverse engineering a strategy. I am talking about something more/very different to that.)

"Confluence" is almost one such example, although, this can be a bit ambiguous at times. Another is time. when you apply time to your %'s it changes the response. Another way is to follow a specific player for eg. DBS or Barclays. Percentages are malleable just as price charts can be altered, amended and "played with". When you begin to understand this, you can then realize just how much 'other people' REALLY do not know and appreciate about their own trading.

If you can get a result from say, 50%, as a strike of a percentage, then you definitely can get 0% or 100%. Why? When you use a strike instead of the usual "cross your fingers and hope n pray" approach, you are measuring your control NOT trying to predict anything and certainly not trying to merely 'improve your strategy'.

A strike is always based on what you know and understand, but NEVER based on sporadic circumstances. Why? Using a strike is like being a sniper instead of someone using a blanketing approach such as napalming an entire country just to kill one person.

Here's an example of a strike on chart .....


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This is a price chart strike. Your control is based on your real world knowledge and not just seeing the X-Y axis relationship of the chart itself.

See the small black line on each half of the chart?

This is an observable moment in time but more importantly, it is the price to percentage relationship. I'm not talking about fibs etc. I'm talking about real world input. On the top half, the line is between the 50% and 100%. Why? Because inside that 50-100 is another 50-100 and the main view that you see on that chart is NOT time frame bound, it is price operated. The %'s tool I drew has begun at high on top of NOT the high price but the weighted congestion area. Why? Price is only one variant in trading, it is NOT the be-all-to-end-all. Markets move as a result of something moving. Call it smart money or an algo or just some trust fund baby with very very deep pockets, Call it whatever you want.

A strike like this is never about the chart, it's about the why. This is the same way I would trade if I ONLY used Open High Low Close prices and a ruler and pen and pencil and paper.

To gain a 90%+ consistency, it is necessary to understand something that a speculator will never see. A Strike is your control over what you're doing where you see more than other people see. Precision in trading is not about being a perfectionist, it is about you, your tools and the way you CHOOSE to move around a situation instead of being glued to something and therefore being fixated.

Now look at the top chart again and do you see the little white rectangle ?

This is another strike. Now some people may think I'm just using different words to name or describe all this. But you are missing the fact that this is not about me, it's about learning about more than what your dear peers say "is" and "important".

The word Strike is also used in other markets ....

=====================================
Strike price

Description
In finance, the strike price of an option is a fixed price at which the owner of the option can buy, or sell, the underlying security or commodity. The strike price may be set by reference to the spot price, which is the market price of the underlying security or commodity on the day an option is taken out.
=====================================

Momentum, for eg, is the ripple effect of small in time or in price. "Trend" is the same but on a much larger scale and has several intervals and gaps of time that "the market" then needs to justify and equalize or balance.

But a Strike in its most basic form, has always been about that sliver of Life where real life meets the data price chart. Something you just cannot get from "data" or a price chart alone. Even combined they offer little more than time arbitrage and price gouging using weighted areas of congestion of "value" in different forms of liquidity or other forms of opportunity.

For me, a Strike is a sum total of everything I know, understand and can deem useful so I risk the least and gain the most. Sometimes using RROI (Rate of Return On Investment = How much how quickly) but also using my naturally gifted common sense.

A great example I can offer is - I see people who bitch about the spread and "low volatility" and "low liquidity" during the "Asian session" of FX. So silly.

Firstly, the "Asian session" is actually just "the usual business day" for SOME people. Hehehehe. Why sit there during this time of day and bitch about it? Maybe your broker is useless, offering wide spreads and buffering your orders. Maybe you need to look at the Nikkei and stop bitching. YEEEEAH !! The Nikkei !!! It's Huge. It's a price weighted index and a constituent index as well. If you still remember which way is up and down then you can learn about it.

In one context, a 100% percentage of something MUST exist because the basic nature of everything before it exists. And while most people argue about all this, they forget the basics.....

* What IS a 100% Win Strike Rate?
* What characteristics does it OFFER ....not NEED ?
* For a 100% SR to exist as an "accident" or "coincidence" there must also exist the intentional aspect.
* What is the motivation to pursue a 100% SR?

I know it may seem that I have jumped all over the place here. But that IS the point.

Linear thinking will get you nowhere. You must do more if you genuinely want to learn.

For those who just "stick with their routine" .... If/And/Or/When things change in the world and the markets change (again), then I guess you'll be pretty screwed, won't you.

Life is all about change and stretching. But neurotics always want things static.


Oh me Oh my.


Anyway I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #234
  • Oct 27, 2021 12:03am Oct 27, 2021 12:03am
How To Fill An Order That Doesn't Exist ...... Yet .............

Marketeers, Brokers and their kin, Liquidity provers .....Oh I'm sorry, Providers, Intro Brokers and affiliates and good ol' Mr institutional.

Ever banked somewhere AND traded through your bank?

I would imagine for some, looking at the spreads the banks offer to trade or invest in 'the markets' would make your tummy hurt. Mine too.

And while many brokers love playing games, people seem to think that brokers 'have only been this way' since (pick a date). No. Brokers, like banks, are always there to make money.

And obviously I'm talking more about the non-institutional brokers, since there are SOO many of these now.

So how DOES one go about sending an order to market where at that price you are after, technically, one doesn't exist re: someone or something else having a pre-existing order to reciprocate?

DIY it of course.

On this site it's truly fascinating and disturbing, of all these 'experts', how so many have never really looked at the ins and outs of what happens to their order when placed and filled.

Of course it matters. Otherwise slippage and re-quoting would appear "normal" to you even if there's no need for it.

Below is a quick snippet of what you can do.....


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Please do not take this literally until you thoroughly understand the concept. People always just assume that EVERY single sub-price on the chart has at least one order siting there. AND, on top of this, because they've watched too many youtube videos on trading, they assume that that is all they really need to know. Big mistake.

For me, I don't like to 'hope and pray' that my well placed order "might" get filled.

Here's the thing ....

EITHER, your broker is trading against you which means that they have a vested interest in giving you bad fills on orders you send to market, or, you ask for bad fills.

Not everything is the broker's fault.

On that chart pic, the green and the pink averages represent time, meanwhile, the blue levels for volatility mixed with price valuing. and the black one is a MA that you can use for registering intrinsic value. But please understand I'm not trying to dress this up to appear better or different etc. It's something traders have done for decades. But it always makes me laugh when I read or hear people say "You cannot do that. The markets don't work that way". Hehehe so funny.

I'll say something here that people need to come to terms with right here and now .....

Liquidity is made NOT born into existence. I've seen people steal and run away with things I have explained. And even worse, have taken it and twisted it and reinterpreted it to suit their lopsided view on things. And yet, still, they have not grasped the basic concept that one order must be filled by SOMETHING. Either internalized with your broker, or with a higher level broker, or through a Liquidity provider. PEOPLE are used as liquidity every day. For me, growing up in Australia, when you move into a new place to live, you ask the electricity company to "turn on the lights" so you have power. So what happens? You have it switched on, you use it and THEN you get billed. It's called forward crediting. It's exactly the same in fact, WITH credit cards.

........... Liquidity. MAYBE not yours but DEFINITELY someone's.

So study that chart pic and REALLY try and understand that SOMEONE has to offer that price before the market can do something "with it". So either you offer it or someone or something else does.

With this, it's the same stylized argument re: hedging. A fool will argue about it because they cannot think but can make a lot of "noise" without first considering what options for use exist.

Participants deposit and withdraw re: these markets all day and night. And some, for reasons far beyond just mere speculation. So it's a good idea for you to reach for the closest piece of 4 x 2 wood and clunk yourself over the head until your brain starts working on appreciating that you don't have to be a consumer of any "trading product".


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #235
  • Oct 27, 2021 1:43am Oct 27, 2021 1:43am
Momentum.


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Put the blueprint together with its glue ....... >


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #236
  • Oct 28, 2021 2:59am Oct 28, 2021 2:59am
My wife showed me this video after her friend showed her. I laughed so hard I literally fell off my chair in tears. Apart from it being VERY funny, it reminds me of when I started learning to trade. If I remember right I jumped the curb on more than one occasion and lost bunches of money just like he runs over everyone !! Hehehehehe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS-n-HhmMZo


Trading IS a lot like driving....... in SO many ways.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #237
  • Edited 9:11pm Oct 30, 2021 8:56pm | Edited 9:11pm
Because I don't subscribe to how most people think, and see things, I like to mix things up and churn the butter. When people say "support and resistance" I just think of ..... potential resistance. When they say "supply and demand" ..... I just think of ........... yep you guessed it ..... potential resistance.

(Whenever I read someone on these sites alluding to being a "master of trading" or even if they joke about it, they never pay attention to the 'audience' and consider how suggestible or impressionable someone is in real life. Just a side note.)

Anyway, Below is a great little tool that I have used many times. Admittedly not "new" or fancy, but it is highly qualified to help you "see" the market and to put it in different contexts when you are testing, researching and ultimately, learning. It's an mt4 indicator.


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As far I can tell, it does not "repaint" etc, but maybe I missed something. So please double check this for yourself before using it in any serious way.


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Have Fun and happy learning.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #238
  • Nov 1, 2021 10:22pm Nov 1, 2021 10:22pm
This one's about custom indicators.

Recently we had friends stay with us. My friend is a Commodities trader of several years and when he visits it's eventual that we talk about trading and the financial world. When he saw my browser clipped to the side of my computer screen, he saw part of a FF page I had been reading. He stepped up to the PC and brought it to full view and asked what it's about. What I had been reading was about a new development for an indicator that someone is working on.

Jim immediately became fascinated and started reading. After about 12 mins, he stopped and just giggled and sat down to drink his coffee. He took one sip and looked at me and said plainly, "When will they ever learn?"

For you, the reader of this, may not be aware of Jim. Like me, he doesn't enjoy the spotlight. But this should not be interpreted as being stupid or ignorant or inexperienced when it comes to trading the financial markets. Jim has worked with many great people in this field. And like me, he understands the threshold limits placed on each category of traders. However most people never hear of these things because it's not openly talked about by brokers or Liquidity providers or upper echelon traders. Why not? A sport is one thing to its fans and another to the people BEHIND the sport itself. These would be the business people and everyone who arranges what is addictive to its nature, presence and activity. Thus keeping a captive audience of that sport.

So now, if you understand that and can transfer that idea and understanding over to trading, then you are now literally MILES ahead of most 'consumer based traders'.

Why?

Most people remain consumers when they enter the arena of trading. Therefore they also retain the behaviors and characteristics of said mindset...... consumer.

So now back to what I had up on my PC that Jim read.

It is about an indicator that someone had developed for their own trading approaches that is now seeking to place it out in the mainstream for public use.

Being 'old school' doesn't mean you're "old" or " scared of technology" etc. No. In the case of Jim and myself, we learned a very long time ago that indicators have their limits. Just as tennis players call for a rotation of balls because the current ones being used are wearing out and fresh ones would be helpful. But the tennis balls don't call for any change, the players do. How? Because they are playing the game and they see what is going on. The players are aware, not the balls.

Jim knows as I do, that another indicator is not the solution and never has been. A full forward leading indicator is uncovered not "discovered". An awareness for this to happen must come from the trader. Artificial confluence may come from an assortment of readouts but in the end, it's still down to the operator. A real trader would know this because a real trader deliberately puts themself in a situation where they have NO indicators and must test their skills. Something most people these days would be too scared to do in a real life trading situation. Why is that?

If you said - people are addicted to indicators rather than the usefulness of the indications presented, you'd be 100% correct. The fact that people are excited and enthusiastic about a new indicator is evidence that people have not learned the appropriate lessons, yet.

It's exactly the same as sharing a strategy with a new trader, where that strategy has a (eg.) 95% Win SR yet the trader cannot make it perform inline with the detailed outcomes initially stated and provided. Why not?

Is it the strategy's fault?

Being a commodities trader, Jim, has seen many "trends" and "fads" come and go. And I say "go", because once they fail to meet desired expectations, people etc lose interest. Why is that I wonder? I have some idea, do you?

As a real trader your job and responsibility is to gauge the real from the fantasy.

I'm not saying this new indicator could not be helpful, it may. But to me and Jim, if the trader is not up to the challenge, then it'll be more like this ........


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.... And less productive than people desire or try and dictate into existence.

Technology nor data can EVER make the trader. It is a full blown, fully decked out skill set that requires real life to manifest results.

And since custom indicators are just that, customized, it is mandatory for its creator to continuously update that indicator to stay ahead of the tech advancement curve. So what happens if something happens to that person and they cannot or will not, continue to generate updates? It happens all the time and for metatrader platform users (and the other ones too), the stability of any indication is only ever as good as the foundation its built from and on. Welcome to that point where 'techiness' meets the real life road.

Jim being Jim, said to me later that day, that people have lost sight of reality. And correlated it with the big push happening for the full introduction and distribution of virtual reality activities into daily life. "Unfortunately, people have missed the signs of this and now spend more time staring at screens than they do actually trading the markets they follow."

The layperson may dismiss this but then the question still remains - what will it take for the person to stop and really look around and be honest and truthful in what they see?

Who's trading who?


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #239
  • Nov 5, 2021 1:59am Nov 5, 2021 1:59am
An old friend told me recently that it's really no longer about indicators as much as it's about money management. And in a world like we have today, 'management' can refer to many things.

So here is my suggestion to people for 2021-22 ........

This is how you are expected to think and see things .........


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And ....


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And so......


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If you actually last long enough in this arena, it's inevitable that you will find out certain things. The question is - are you mature enough to learn instead of opinionating?


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #240
  • Nov 5, 2021 3:55am Nov 5, 2021 3:55am
Quoting PeterCaleb
An old friend told me recently that it's really no longer about indicators as much as it's about money management. And in a world like we have today, 'management' can refer to many things. So here is my suggestion to people for 2021-22 ........ This is how you are expected to think and see things ......... {image} And .... {image}{image} And so...... {image} {image} If you actually last long enough in this arena, it's inevitable that you will find out certain things. The question is - are you mature enough to learn instead of opinionating? {image}{image}...
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