EUR/USD Signal

Euro bulls took a breather Monday and EUR/USD recorded a small setback, sending the single currency below 1.21. The decline was however short-lived and the pair was able to hold above 1.21 (for now). We now expect the euro to trade between 1.2150 and 1.2060-40.

EUR/USD: We are long at 1.2125.

Short @ 1.2080

Today all eyes will turn to the European Central Bank policy decision and the euro’s reaction to it. The ECB will publish its decision at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time and President Christine Lagarde will hold a virtual press conference 45 minutes later.
Policy makers are expected to add 500 billion euros to their emergency bond-buying program and extend it until at least the end of 2021. The deposit rate is expected to remain at -0.5%.

One risk is the current exchange rate of the euro which is making exports from the currency bloc less competitive and putting downward pressure on inflation by making imports cheaper. The ECB frequently stresses that it does not target the exchange rate but its commentary may try to restrain the euro.
The bottom line is that even if more easing is on the way which would normally weaken the currency, chances are in favor of a continuation of the euro’s rally.

Recently, traders in the EUR/USD have taken a more cautious approach which can be seen in the euro’s consolidation phase following its peak at 1.2177 (see short-term downtrend channel in our analysis from Wednesday). However, the pause in the euro rally doesn’t necessarily mean that the bullish outlook has been negated.
Technically, the short-term downtrend channel (or bull flag if rally continues) now ranges from 1.2130 to 1.2040 and we will focus on breakouts above or below these levels.

Our entries today:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.2110
Short @ 1.2070

Finally, a profitable trading day:
1. Long +18/-10
2. Long +20/+40

The EUR/USD gained some momentum today.

We are long @ 1.2180. Trade is in profit and the stop was pulled to BE.

The euro’s trend is clear and a clear target for bulls is the 1.25 level last reached in February 2018. There might be no fundamental reason why that target should not be challenged even if the European central bank tries hard to subdue the currency to lift the Eurozone’s inflation rate.

With the uptrend continuing, a direct intervention in the foreign exchange rate from the ECB is unlikely since the correlation between monetary policy and the level of the currency seems to have broken down recently. Even if the ECB eases its monetary policy further in the first few months of 2021 to counter the impact on the economy of the coronavirus pandemic, the euro might not weaken as much as it would have done in the past.

In short-term time frames we anticipate corrective movements towards 1.2150 and 1.2050 but if the euro is able to climb above 1.2310, we will shift our focus to 1.24.

Right now we are long @1.2270...

Technically, we saw the euro surging to a high of 1.2326 amid broad-based dollar weakness but with the election results still to be announced, the pair rebounded from its highs. Traders now might pay attention to a price breaks either above 1.2350 or below 1.2250 but higher volatility should nevertheless be taken into account.

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EUR/USD
Long @ 1.2235
Short @ 1.2270

The pair bounced off the 1.2350-barrier and could now be heading towards a designated support zone around 1.2080-60, from where buyers could swoop in. A break below 1.2050, however, would shift the focus toward a crucial support at 1.20. On the upside, we will keep an eye on a break above 1.2275 which could prompt bulls for a test of 1.24.

Our signals today:
We are short @1.2165...


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Daily Forex Signals:
If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.2190
Short @ 1.2135

The euro gave up on its high price levels and the reason for the pullback was not only a stronger dollar, but also weaker GDP growth in Germany, another political crisis in Italy as well as a slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout in the EU.
Technically, the pair seems to be on its way towards a test of 1.20, or at least 1.2050 from where euro bulls could possibly try to lift the euro out of its current oversold territory. On the upside there is a lower resistance now at around 1.2160 that could limit near-term upward movements. A break above 1.2180, however, could reinvigorate bullish momentum towards 1.2270.

Our trading ideas for today:
Long @ 1.2120
Short @ 1.2060

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While chances are still in favor of the bulls – provided that bulls are able to stabilize the euro above 1.2170 - we expect potential gains to be limited until 1.2250-70. However, it all depends on the market’s risk appetite. Bears on the downside will focus on the crucial 1.20-support. |

Long @ 1.2215
Short @ 1.2140

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Long @ 1.2180
Short @ 1.2140

The EUR/USD remained trading within a relatively narrow price range between 1.2176 and 1.2107. We will now focus on price breakouts either above 1.2220 or below 1.2115 that could reinvigorate fresh momentum.

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Long @ 1.2140
Short @ 1.2120 trade is in profit...

Long @ 1.2065
Short @ 1.2030

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As anticipated, bearish action gained traction after the price fell below 1.2050 but now the focus turns to 1.2000, a crucial price level which could serve as a firm support. If the euro bounces off that level while bearish momentum fades, we could see a bullish reversal towards 1.21 in a first run. If 1.20 gives way to the bears, a next bearish target should be at 1.1950 and 1.1930. We bear in mind that the pair enters oversold territory increasing the chances for a bullish reversal in the near-term.

Long @ 1.2060
Short @ 1.2010


The euro depreciated against the U.S. dollar since the Eurozone is lagging far behind on vaccinations, deteriorating the prospects of a strong economic recovery in comparison to the U.S. and U.K., countries that will likely be first to recover economically from the slump caused by the pandemic.
Looking however on the technical picture in short-term time frames, we saw that the 1.1950-support was able to withstand bearish pressure (at least for now) and we now expect a rebound towards 1.21 and possibly even 1.2170.
Nonetheless, with no market-moving data on the calendar trading ranges might be small.

Long @1.2175, Short @1.2085


The EUR/USD was able to stabilize above 1.21 after Friday’s decline below 1.21 has proved short-lived as bearish momentum faded. As long as the currency pair trades above 1.2080, we will focus on a test of 1.2170-80.

Long @1.2130
Short @1.2070 Trade is in profit...

Long @ 1.2065
Short @ 1.2035

Long @ 1.2160
Short @ 1.2085


The euro steadied above 1.21 and as long as the pair remains above 1.2050, we anticipate further gains until 1.2170 and possibly a test of 1.22-1.2215.

Long @1.2115
Short @1.2070 Trade has hit TP

The euro corrected its gains after a test of 1.2243 and it will be interesting whether sentiment could change in favor of the bears after a break below 1.2050. Lower targets are seen at 1.1960 and 1.19. Bulls in this pair should again wait for a break above 1.2185 but more importantly above 1.2230 in order to buy euros towards 1.23.
Our short position at 1.2070 has already hit the profit target at 1.2030.