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Show your best EA

  • #161
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:31pm Apr 15, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The purpose of my submission is not to show the EA which would make anyone the most money. That's silly. The purpose of that EA is to show what could have happened. As Trk and I lightly discussed awhile back, optimization techniques can be used to try and predict the short term future. Tdion has done some work in that area already. I'm waiting to see what his success will be like there. I personally am working on eliminating the human aspect in my trading.

The other purpose is to show how easily a backtest can be manipulated. Look at any commercial...

First of all I want to say thank you for taking your time and writing stuff in order tomake some points clear.

As a newbie I have already found out that trading is not only making money...lol...losing money is always a part of the business too.

About backtests, I think youīre right they are meanless and can be sure manipulated to create the impression that someone just got the "right one".

I wish you luck in your journey trying to fully automated without human intervention, if you get lucky just let me now, if you like to sell some copys of it iīll be one of your customers.

What is your impression of FAP turbo?? they say it works and claim they show no backtests...just live account results...

Do you think that an EA can be developed so far that it can complete replace a Human?

Regards.
  • #162
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:23pm Apr 15, 2009 1:23pm
Don't under estimate RR's expertise or contributions to FF as he mentioned.
If you have not yet had success Rednose, dont give up..keep trying
  • #163
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:24pm Apr 15, 2009 1:24pm
Goldenpot,
I have tried to PM you but your PM is disabled...enable it and I will try again.
  • #164
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:32pm Apr 15, 2009 1:32pm
Thanks for your post with live results.
  • #165
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:37pm Apr 15, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting Trk
Don't under estimate RR's expertise or contributions to FF as he mentioned.
If you have not yet had success Rednose, dont give up..keep trying
Underestimating?? What do you mean?? Did you read my post?? What part of it did you missed?
  • #166
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:44pm Apr 15, 2009 1:44pm
Sorry I must have misunderstood the messages...I glanced at this from RR

: "You're more than welcome to try and shoot me down RedNose. But before making any accusations against me, I suggest you take a look around and see what I've contributed to this forum."

I was firstly pointing out that RR makes great contributions to this forum and also has a wealth of experience in coding...

I was not trying to be confrontational but rather was trying to encourage you to keep searching and trying.

sorry for misunderstanding.
  • #167
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:29pm Apr 15, 2009 3:29pm
Hello,

I actually code EA's based on my needs for that period of time. Experience shows that no EA fits actually for all time and all situations.

As for the time being, here are a few screenshots of my latest expert working with USDJPY - Just in case you might be interested to study those screenshots.

In real-life, i have managed to squeeze 2783.17 from a 10K account since January, 17 trades of which only 2 were losing trades.


Please post your feedback.


HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IN THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY COUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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  • #168
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:47pm Apr 15, 2009 3:47pm
All positions are squared within a day or 2 (if unlucky) unlike some EA that do not close losses that waits indefinitely for the magic tp to come..

win 68% loss 32%
tons of micro trades = 0.5~2.0% daily

PS. This is Live US$10K account
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  • #169
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:26pm Apr 15, 2009 5:26pm
can you share your ea?
  • #170
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:32pm Apr 15, 2009 6:32pm
Rednose,

FAPS shows some backtests. Also, if you subscribe to their newsletter, they always release a "new and improved version" every few months or so.

Faps just gets reoptimized every so often and the resold as a new product.


As for EAs completely replacing humans, it's possible. Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha fund is completely computer-run.
  • #171
  • Apr 16, 2009 12:09am Apr 16, 2009 12:09am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
As for EAs completely replacing humans, it's possible. Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha fund is completely computer-run.
And so is Renaissances medallion fund (the "no. 1" hedge fund) and many more. It's not impossible at all to come up with profitable algorithm.
  • #172
  • Apr 16, 2009 6:52am Apr 16, 2009 6:52am
Quoting mikkom
And so is Renaissances medallion fund (the "no. 1" hedge fund) and many more. It's not impossible at all to come up with profitable algorithm.
I knew Renaissance is a quantitative fund, but do they have a 100% automated robot managing at least some of the money?
  • #173
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:38am Apr 16, 2009 7:38am
Quoting Trk
Goldenpot,
I have tried to PM you but your PM is disabled...enable it and I will try again.
Hi, sorry for the problem..I've enabled the PM setting. Looking forward for your respond. Thanks a lots
  • #174
  • Apr 16, 2009 8:07am Apr 16, 2009 8:07am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
I knew Renaissance is a quantitative fund, but do they have a 100% automated robot managing at least some of the money?
They are quite secretive about their algos but as far as I know (and what I have read) they use lots of automated trading.

Here is one interview http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5vQ&refer=home
Quote
When not in Manhattan, Simons runs his empire from a 15- foot (4.6-meter) by 20-foot office in Renaissance's gated and guarded campus off Route 25A in East Setauket on New York's Long Island, some 50 miles (80 kilometers) east of the Empire State Building. With most of the trading automated, there's little of the hurly-burly of a typical hedge fund firm.
  • #175
  • Edited 9:21am Apr 16, 2009 8:41am | Edited 9:21am
Problem of optimization is that you're using future data to predict the past while you should actually do the opposite.
The future data is the profit and DD I would have had with these or that parameters. Then you could find other nice words to say this like curve fitting, overfitting, noise fitting... but it's always the same problem.

I could optimize a system to gazilion dollars, and show a straight equity here, but the problem is that it's exactly hindsight trading on a past graph, exactly the same.

So I simplify stuff like this, my system backtest performances is exactly the pip variations of all pairs of 2008 minus spread, slippage and commissions. Then add an start capital and you get the performances. I cannot post the graph now, but imagine a straght line with equation like y = ax + b ...
b is my initial capital.
a is my ability to hindsight trade.

Value of all this work 0.

Instead of losing time with such over-optimized EAs, only consider the ones which have a criteria to auto-adapt themself to market changes.

Quote
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IN THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY COUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
  • #176
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:31am Apr 16, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Marzullo
Problem of optimization is that you're using future data to predict the past while you should actually do the opposite.

How are you getting your future data?
  • #177
  • Apr 16, 2009 9:35am Apr 16, 2009 9:35am
Quoting mikkom
They are quite secretive about their algos but as far as I know (and what I have read) they use lots of automated trading.

Here is one interview http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5vQ&refer=home
I think by "automated" they mean something similar to what I do. My EAs take care of 70-80% of all my trade entries. They enter into trades, and all can exit, but I usually override my EAs when the market changes.

Anyone know how I can get an internship in the Renaissance fund?
  • #178
  • Apr 16, 2009 11:28pm Apr 16, 2009 11:28pm
FAP turbo doesn't use a stop loss. If one trade goes against it, the entire account is blown.

Quoting Rednose

What is your impression of FAP turbo?? they say it works and claim they show no backtests...just live account results...
  • #179
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:31am Apr 17, 2009 12:31am
Quoting tdion
FAP turbo doesn't use a stop loss. If one trade goes against it, the entire account is blown.
Who says? It has stop loss but huge compared to TP (10 to 15 times TP)

Anyone heard of FXPP Auto Trader? Costs $4997!
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #180
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:20pm Apr 17, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Rednose,

FAPS shows some backtests. Also, if you subscribe to their newsletter, they always release a "new and improved version" every few months or so.

Faps just gets reoptimized every so often and the resold as a new product.


As for EAs completely replacing humans, it's possible. Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha fund is completely computer-run.
Hello Ronald,

I got to tell you that your answer to my first question make me change my view on trading, it will take some time to explain it, I will not waste your time. Thank you.

I can tell you that Iīve tested FAP Turbo and I think I was lucky...I got a few trades with profit but when I look at the settings I see a very "known" mistake...tp= 140 pips sl=500 !!! so thatīs a pretty good chance to have an account blowed in the wind I think. I tried to change the settings and it doesnīt worked so well...


Iīm reading your favorite book right now, man thatīs amazing!!


Well, the idea of a fully automated trader, like making money without doing a thing is ok....i think everybody would like to have a money making machine at home..but I think the best thing in trading is the feeling of doing things right. Thatīs what I think.

I appreciate that you took your time to answer me and read my posts.

Regards.

ps - do you trade with EAīs on live account?? How high is your winnig rate??
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