Trend- what is it?

Hi all

We all talk about this trend, that trend the supercycle etc. The trading books are full of it but to my mind, they never quite explain how to measure a trend or how to know where you are in the trend you are trading.

Is the trend defined by price? time, or both? Personally, I prefer to use price to me any attempt to convert the price to time etc is alchemy. Yes, I know of Gann but that is my view.
So if enough people are interested then I shall share my approach and perhaps people might share theirs.

Please note anybody being disruptive will be blocked.

Cheers
Nut.

Sure am interested, pls share...thanks

Market is trending when price doesn't retrace enough.

OK so a little bit of interest, perhaps there will be more as the thread gets going. I shall make a start at the weekend. I will only be able to update at weekends as I intend to return to trading during the week.

The main purpose of the thread is to try and help those just starting out avoid loss where possible.

Cheers
Nut

Hi, I am interested to learn about this important subject. How do we measure trend ? How do we benefit from the measurement ? What are the beginning and end of a trend? Is a mathematical treatment possible? I always wish to know.

Many people have no idea what and how to define a trend.
Many individual has different ways to determining why the market is trending and what is a trend.
I personally try to figure out every detail about forex myself , while not accepting anything wisdom share online.
My logic behind a trend which I have no idea if it's correct or not.
I would like to think that 95% of the time , there are even number of buyers and seller in the market but due to 90% of traders using high R:R trade( more than 1/1 )
Losers close there trade faster than winners , and every buy become a sell when close vice versa.
Therefore creating an imbalance causing the market to trend , until price trend so much it consider low / high and there's no longer an even amount of buyers or sellers in the market or Until Price trend so much that enough TP are hit to force a reversal.

Trend can be subjective and different depending on TF and view of people....

https://optimusmarkets.com/files/Tra...e_DiNapoli.pdf

Just had a quick scroll through the book it looks like a very interesting read. Thanks for the link.

Regards
Nut

Trend( tendencies adopted by the majority). Something you are best advice to stay away from.

If you trade with the trend then you should trade only when there is a trend present.

Whatever concept you used to define a trend should prove to be robust and statistically significant.

I base trend off

central bank policy and current sentiment driven by news

Waves are Two types only: zigzag or flat.

Zigzag waves correct more than .236 and less than .618 -- these are trending waves and will be followed by 3 highs in uptrend or lows in down trend.
See screen Shot.
These are found in every time frame, waves on lower time frames will repeat until fulfilling waves in higher frames.



Flat waves correct more than .618 -- these are non trending waves.

I like to use consolidation as my bench mark the Wyckoff theory it makes things easy for me to tell the direction of the market,I trade daily chart but also check the price direction with weekly timeframe

To me a trend is present when on different timeframes the actual price movement consistently exceeds the movement that would be expected by purely a random walk

I am in with bells on. Thanks Nut.

I wish to chip in on how I conceptualise trend in PA process.
I use 2 methods in my understanding and the first is visual and it is predicated on hh hl and lh ll as envisaged on the 30min tf. The downside of this method is a bit laggy and it is less precise especially in a intraday range consolidation mode whereby both hh and ll are breached causing added confusion.
My next favorite method is based on price level which I find to be very precise in all market conditions. The only downside is different pairs have a different set of price level which is extremely challenging to define.
In my knowledge and experience learning to understand market conditions like intraday/st/mt/lt PA topping and basing, pullbacks, retracements, reversal and consolidation is more significant than just knowing the trend which is a very basic skillset to further understand the complete PA process.
Just sharing my trading thoughts.

Cheers

OK many thanks to those people who have already posted their interpretation of a trend. My interpretation is a series of Higher Highs/Higher Lows for an uptrend Lower Lows/Lower Highs for a downtrend. On the attached chart UHB = Upside Breakout, PB = Pullback.
Important

If you look closely you will notice that every UHB is followed fairly quickly by a BP into or close to the previous move. These are you long entry areas not the UHB. If you enter on the UHB you will be buying at an expensive price and you will be exposed to stop hunters. This is obvious stuff to the experienced trader but I hope it will help those just starting out.

Now for a downtrend which is just the opposite of an uptrend and once again you need to be selling the pullbacks into the previous trend.

Important

Note how at Down trend low 1(DBL=Downtrend low) the CLOSE is a new closing low in the uptrend and after every new low a pullback will take place. However, this initial new low is an important and early indication of future weakness to come. also on this occasion, no pullback occurred at until the first PB. A pullback to these higher levels may still happen but is not a certainty.

With regard to the price action of individual bars, you need to pay attention for inside/outside bars, pin bars, hammers etc. I do not intend to describe all of these as plenty of information exists online.
The main point is not to chase the market and get sucked in on the break out wait for a pullback. If no pullback you have lost nothing just missed a trade there will be plenty more. No trade can be a good trade.
Stopping for coffee be back soon.

Ok so lets say we are trading the 60 min chart and wish to know where we are with respect to the weekly trend at any given time. I use a swing indicator on the 60 m chart set up so as to measure the weekly trend
The weekly swing indicator is set to 1 week and the 60 min is set to 10080min/60min = 168bars.