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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,921
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:05am Mar 17, 2017 7:05am
Quoting Lock
...So, here are the pit main references: Pit upper weekly bracket low at 23695 Pit yesterday close/unchange level at at 23603 Pit major bracket (downside action from 06.12.2016 to 11.01.2017) half back at 23675 Pit major bracket (upside action from 16.01.2017 to 01.02.2017) half back at 23583 ...
Note current price location...
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  • #3,922
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:09am Mar 17, 2017 7:09am
I forget to note the pit 2016 year close at 23435: an other very important reference to consider.
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  • #3,923
  • Mar 17, 2017 9:04am Mar 17, 2017 9:04am
Tagging yesterday pit poor high 2377 (now extremely weak) and testing upper weekly pit bracket low at 23695.
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  • #3,924
  • Mar 22, 2017 3:01am Mar 22, 2017 3:01am
17/03/22 WEDNESDAY 09:01+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance around the mid level of the monthly bracket.

On the weekly timeframe we saw an attempted breakdown from weekly bracket 23464-27057: 2 consecutive weeks closed below bracket low giving us acceptation of the breakdown but then we saw the last 2 weeks retracing upside back inside the weekly bracket range. Last week closed inside it while current one is almost at the mid level of it.
So we could consider the attempted breakdown failed if current week will close somewhere inside the bracket. Also, when an attempted breakout from balance failed in one direction, the natural direction will become the opposite side of the balance from where the first attempted break occurred: it is very common in such cases to see price retracing completely the balance and test the opposite side of it, in this case the weekly bracket upper level at 27057.
If instead current week will close below the bracket low at 24465 we could have some hope to continue lower in the direction of the previous attempted breakdown.

On the daily timeframe we are in trend upside with a onetimeframing action upside in the last 5 days. Price is around a very prominent major composite poc at 2464 so we could expect continuation upside if we will have volume in order to evade the attraction of this poc or, in if we will experience lack of participation and volume, we could expect rotation and balance around the poc.

Going deeper in the analysis yesterday we saw a considerable acceleration performed by GB participants that terminated in a balance then continued by following sessions. The GB action left downside 2 significant minus development at 2426-2439 and 23975-2416: in case of correction downside these zone could attract price. Currently price is balancing just below a previous GB gap downside 2474-25235 that included a double pass gap at 2498-25235: these zone could attract price in case of rotation around major composite poc 2464 or in case of continuation upside.
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  • #3,925
  • Mar 22, 2017 5:16am Mar 22, 2017 5:16am
Price glued at composite poc 2464 as expected in case of lack of participation. Poor low at 24355, weak high at yesterday close 24885, weak D high at half back and weak E high at open 24695: only trading money involved for now.
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  • #3,926
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:00am Mar 22, 2017 11:00am
24715 is yesterday pit session pull back low while 24773 is yesterday pit session unchanged level (the settle of the session): for any meaningfull continuation upside we need acceptation above both of them. If not, all the way back to composite poc 2464.

If instead we will have acceptation above them the yesterday pit poor high at 2494 is possible.
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  • #3,927
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:07am Mar 22, 2017 11:07am
Note that for now all what we saw was short covering of overnight inventories gone too short. If we will have acceptation above yes unch 24773 then we could see a morphing of current old business action into something more. Downside we left a weak period low at 2442 (previous half back) and an other weak period low at preUS open 2452 (just above round 2400). So if we will not see new money buying above yesterday pit unch these levels are at risk.

Right now we got 2 back to back poor highs: current one plus yesterday one.
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  • #3,928
  • Mar 23, 2017 7:30am Mar 23, 2017 7:30am
17/03/23 THURSDAY 13:30 +1GMT
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

Monthly balance, weekly balance (possible failed breakout downside if current week will close above weekly bracket low at 24465), daily trend upside with 6 consecutive days in one timeframing action.
This morning we saw the completion of the filling action announced yesterday performed by GB session: it filled the old previous GB gap downside 2474-25235 that included a double pass gap at 2498-25235 (see yesterday morning report)
Then GB tested above 2526 level that is the half back of the GB bracket from 02.02.2017 to 02.07.2017. After this test it liquidated in the direction of the major composite poc 2464: a level that was very important yesterday.

Now we are before Yellen speach and preUS session is ranging around yesterday pit poor high: as you remember yesterday we underlined the presence of two back to back pit poor highs at 2490 and 2494: it is expected the correction of both of them. If pit session will open below them we could see a correction of them and then a test of the upper pit level at 25243 (the pit half back of the same GB daily bracket). Then in case of failure above the 2 back to back poor highs or above the major half back we could experience a return to the major composite poc at 2464. In case of success instead we could continue higher in the direction of current trend upside: the natural target in this case is the top of the weekly bracket with a test at 2548 short term reference. Note the old pit poor high at 25645 that is on the path of this possible run upside.

If instead pit session will open above the 2 back to back poor highs then the game will be the same but these two references could be considered immediately corrected at open and also we will have to take into consideration the new pit gap upside, working as support if not retraced quickly.

The third scenario is instead a liquidation caused by current lack of buyers upside (2 back to back poor highs is an information that could be read into 2 different ways: lack of buyers or auction upside not completed yet). In this particular case the liquidation could try to refill the yesterday weak action upside made during pit session (note the numerous anomalies left by it) and eventually the filling of the gap between pit sessions 03.20-21 down to 2396.

In any case it will be difficult and a lot of attention and involvement in the market action will be required.
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  • #3,929
  • Edited 8:55am Mar 23, 2017 8:44am | Edited 8:55am
23122 25122 (sorry for the imprecision) is the first short term in this price zone: acceptation above it needed for continuation upside. New pit gap supporting this action for now (if not retraced quickly) and the 2 back to back pit poor highs already corrected just at open. We are in scenario 2: open gapping higher.
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  • #3,930
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:50am Mar 23, 2017 8:50am
Remember that in case of failure above the 2 pit session balance high (2494) the natural target is the opposite side of the balance, meaning 24233. And surely, in case of failure upside we will reach the composite poc at 2464. So monitor for acceptation above 25122 and above 2494
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  • #3,931
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:52am Mar 23, 2017 8:52am
Overnight inventories at open were almost 100% long: so evaluate the situation carefully. If it will skip the correction of overnight inventories it will mean that current market is pretty strong.
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  • #3,932
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:59am Mar 23, 2017 8:59am
Remember that 25243 is the major half back of the bracket from 02.02.2017 to 02.07.2017. An other major short term reference. As written in the report we clearly need acceptation above it for serious continuation upside.
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  • #3,933
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:06am Mar 23, 2017 9:06am
Quoting Lock
17/03/23 THURSDAY 13:30 +1GMT EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT ... as you remember yesterday we underlined the presence of two back to back pit poor highs at 2490 and 2494: it is expected the correction of both of them. If pit session will open below them we could see a correction of them and then a test of the upper pit level at 25243 (the pit half back of the same GB daily bracket).
Quoting Lock
.... If instead pit session will open above the 2 back to back poor highs then the game will be the same but these two references could be considered immediately corrected at open and also we will have to take into consideration the new pit gap upside, working as support if not retraced quickly. ....
Note current poor high 1 single pip shy of our major reference 25243
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  • #3,934
  • Mar 24, 2017 4:51am Mar 24, 2017 4:51am
17/03/24 FRIDAY 10:51+1GMT
MORNING REPORT

As you saw yesterday pit session was not able to get acceptation above our major half back level at 25243. At the same time the session was supported by the new pit gap upside: it could not go higher because of the lack of participation but it could also not go lower for the gap working as support. Consequently it remained in balance. Then overnight liquidated everything down to the poc.

About the major composite poc note that it switched from 2464 to 2481.

Current situation is that GB opened inside yesterday GB range, so in balance. And it also opened close to the composite poc. As a consequence of this environment the first part of current GB session has been rotational. From here it could break above or below in order to make tests above or below yesterday GB range limits (24625-25265).

Now, speaking about odds, note that above we have 2 pit poor high at 2531 and 25645 plus the new Sydney cluster poor high at 2521. Below we have tonight Tokyo poor low at 24735, tagged by current GB low.

As yetserday the main GB reference upside is the major half back at 2526 and yesterday GB close at 25265. Around current level we have the composite poc 2481, yesterday GB unchanged level at 24955. Acceptation above yes unch is needed for any meaningful action upside. As it is needed below it for any action downside. For now we got acceptation below it while we are tagging it from below.
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  • #3,935
  • Mar 24, 2017 7:08am Mar 24, 2017 7:08am
GB close inside yesterday range (inside session). Currently preUS opened inside yesterday US sessions range (preUS+pit US) right above the stops cluster of 2488: it is a zone to test. Yetsterday preUS went 1 single pip below the previous pit session high, so we got stops there below.

Note also that we opened inside yesterday pit session gap higher (2490-2503): it could be a zone to fill for upcoming pit session or it could become a double pass gap zone if pit session will open below it. In this last case yesterday pit session will become, at least initially, an island reversal. This will change if this possible gap zone will be filled quickly after open.
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  • #3,936
  • Mar 24, 2017 8:22am Mar 24, 2017 8:22am
Overnight inventories 100% short from yesterday pit session unch at 25195 (all overnight action occurred below this level). PreUS period high is exactly at yesterday preUS low 24885 (meaning exactly at the low of yesterday US sessions range), consequently is weak.
At the same time we are far below yesterday pit session range low at 2503 and consequently we are building a new gap downside for upcoming pit session.
Also current Tokyo/GB cluster low cannot resist and it will with any probability tested.

 

  1. If we will not see continuation below this cluster, upcoming pit session could retrace both yesterday pit gap higher and today gap lower (overlapping), trying to revisit yesterday very prominent poc at 2521 (that btw coincides with the Sydney cluster poor high) and eventually trying to remove also the 2 poor highs at 2531 and 25645.
  2. If instead we will see continuation below overnight low and the new gap downside will be preserved we could experience a substantial liquidation downside.
  3. The third scenario regards the possibility to remain around current zone in balance attracted by the major composite poc at 2481 or the other lowercomposite poc at 2464

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  • #3,937
  • Mar 27, 2017 6:04am Mar 27, 2017 6:04am
Quoting Lock
Overnight inventories 100% short from yesterday pit session unch at 25195 (all overnight action occurred below this level). PreUS period high is exactly at yesterday preUS low 24885 (meaning exactly at the low of yesterday US sessions range), consequently is weak.
Quoting Lock
At the same time we are far below yesterday pit session range low at 2503 and consequently we are building a new gap downside for upcoming pit session. Also current Tokyo/GB cluster low cannot resist and it will with any probability tested.
Quoting Lock
If we will not see continuation below this cluster, upcoming pit session could retrace both yesterday pit gap higher and today gap lower (overlapping), trying to revisit yesterday very prominent poc at 2521 (that btw coincides with the Sydney cluster poor high) ...
A brief commentary on Friday pit session: it tested the Tokyo/GB cluster low, it was not able to continue lower then it retraced as expected the new gap downside and the overlapping double pass gap. Then it tried to revist the porminent poc at 2521 and failed liquidating everifthing to the down. Note that the action occurred in order to fill the new gap downside started from a poor low at 2468 (early morning low). And this factor probably forced the market to liquidate in the last periods pefore close. In fact it went down just a couple of pips below 2468 and closed there.
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  • #3,938
  • Mar 27, 2017 6:15am Mar 27, 2017 6:15am
2017/03/27 MONDAY 13:15 +1GMT
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

GB session continued the short covering started at Sydney open and followed by Tokyo session. GB opened gapping higher and gained a price level above all the 3 pit session poor highs at 2507 (Friday pit high), 2531 and 25645. It also managed to test above the daily GB cluster high of 09.022017 at 25815 that untill GB close at 18:00 will probably remain one of the most important reference for market action.

GB currently made two separate distributions: for any meaningfull continuation during current GB session upside, some of the clean space above 2580 and below 2586 has to be preserved. If price will menage to refill this zone we will lost the current double distribution.

For upcoming pit session the game will be played around the 3 poor highs I was speaking about previously: if pit will open below them, the probability to test them from below will be very high. If instead pit session will open above them then we will consider all of them already corrected at open. In this case the next natural target will be the filling of the double pit pass gap at 25955-2613 and eventually the filling of the entire gap downside 25645-2613.

Note that the ultimate target (not necessarly for today) is the top of the weekly bracket at 27057. This is due to the fact that current action derived from a failure below the weekly bracket low (meaning below 23464 07.02.2017 low). When a market attempted a break above or below a balance and fails, the natural target is generally the opposite side of that balance: because in this case it failed attempting below the balance (weekly bracket low) then the natural direction is the top of the weekly bracket.
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  • #3,939
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:12am Mar 27, 2017 7:12am
Quoting Lock
2017/03/27 MONDAY 13:15 +1GMT EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT .... Note that the ultimate target (not necessarly for today) is the top of the weekly bracket at 27057. This is due to the fact that current action derived from a failure below the weekly bracket low (meaning below 23464 07.02.2017 low). When a market attempted a break above or below a balance and fails, the natural target is generally the opposite side of that balance: because in this case it failed attempting below the balance (weekly bracket low) then the...
27057 is the top of the weekly bracket for GB (and also it is the absolute high for this weekly bracket). Note anyhow that the top for pit session is at 26793 (01.02.2017 pit session high). Naote also that this pit high is the highest pit high for current year as 27057 is the highest GB high for current year.. Remember this in case of continuation higher for upcoming pit session.
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  • #3,940
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:16am Mar 27, 2017 7:16am
Other important references in the case of continuation upside are 26345 (november 2016 pit breakeven), the current year highest GB close at 26425, the current year highest pit close at 26573 and 2673 (november 2016 GB breakeven): these are all short/mid term references.
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