Just a home-made COT chart
As we can see, the net position says that the sentiment is bearish
I am still bearish on AUD, in my opinion it will break 1.015 next week
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DislikedAttachment
Just a home-made COT chart
As we can see, the net position says that the sentiment is bearish
I am still bearish on AUD, in my opinion it will break 1.015 next weekIgnored
DislikedI think boj has commitment issues, they need to be bold and learn from the swissIgnored
DislikedThe BOJ is broke in comparison to the SNB. I don't think they could maintain a peg.
What they are doing is probably the smartest thing, "threaten" intervention so speculators don't try and take it down past a certain point. As can be seen on a chart it looks as though people are scared to take it down past the 78 level.Ignored
DislikedI think boj has commitment issues, they need to be bold and learn from the swissIgnored
DislikedBroke?! nah dude the japs are rich as fuckin their reserves... last time i talked to my uncle about why japs arent doing intervention is the fear of deflation and their demographics.... when majority of their population are old, they have a huge population under government welfare, the last thing they would do is government value to lose its shine...
i think the japs are simply stuck....Ignored
Dislikeduj is alot more liquid than ec... boj cant fuck with usd peg thats what they signed up for 25 yrs ago. Like i said they tried to be bold but were never beautiful. They been at it longer than snb. Chf will weaken on its own as well as jpy because
sm will realize they are shit going fwd
compared to usd.
So lets see chf jpy aud gbp all fundamentally should weaken long term. Eur is garbage in the first place. So whats left?Ignored
DislikedThe BOJ is broke in comparison to the SNB. I don't think they could maintain a peg.
What they are doing is probably the smartest thing, "threaten" intervention so speculators don't try and take it down past a certain point. As can be seen on a chart it looks as though people are scared to take it down past the 78 level.Ignored
Dislikedhow would intervention raise fear of deflation.. thats
counter intuitive.
They are looking to set an inflation target mechanism like bb. They are under half pct or something and looking to take it
to 2%. A nice grind would be useful that woukd be equivalent to maybe 5k pip intervention lol but they wont do it like that.Ignored
Dislikedyup that too but what happens to
gold when usd rises with equities. Who will gold bugs believe?Ignored
Dislikeduj is alot more liquid than ec... boj cant fuck with usd peg thats what they signed up for 25 yrs ago. Like i said they tried to be bold but were never beautiful. They been at it longer than snb. Chf will weaken on its own as well as jpy because
sm will realize they are shit going fwd
compared to usd.
So lets see chf jpy aud gbp all fundamentally should weaken long term. Eur is garbage in the first place. So whats left?Ignored
Dislikedhow would intervention raise fear of deflation.. thats
counter intuitive.
They are looking to set an inflation target mechanism like bb. They are under half pct or something and looking to take it
to 2%. A nice grind would be useful that woukd be equivalent to maybe 5k pip intervention lol but they wont do it like that.Ignored
DislikedI know it sounds counter intuitive,but if i remember correctly, the reason why japs wont intervene is because government already in debt, deflationary risk is also there and jap population are not keen in saving money in japan due to insolvent banks, they buy up US treasury soooo strong yen means they can buy up more us treasury bonds..... Interesting....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_JapanIgnored
DislikedThe end is getting near
We should see a '96 style devaluation very soon... possibly this yearIgnored
Dislikedyea i see that too but if we look at 2008 a top was set before the fall. So a bottom is not set yet? Alot of sls will be triggered down there like eurchf almost.Ignored
DislikedI traded the day the UJ broke the 79.75 handle for the first time since it was set since the Kobe earthquake in the mid nineties. 300 pip move in under an hour.
Frankly I think the BOJ is on the precipice of a massive devaluation such as they did in 96'. Lowering their currency 30-40% would not be out of the question. It will be done in a massive move possibly taking only a few days much like the SNB did. They cannot broadcast the move or else it will absolutely crush the JGB market and the entirety of the japanese equity markets in anticipatory...Ignored