DislikedHey Cloggie what is your first impression on ECB conference.
You can clearly see the difference in mandates between the FED and the ECB. I still foresee an adjustment in the FED mandate more in line with the ECB to pure monetary.
Trichet's hands are tied due to the lack of fiscal tools. The change of risk in growth gave the first run, the confirmation of a rate hike as we were looking for based on the news last week gave us the second run.
The confirmation of inflation forecast is going to give us a confirmed rate hike and not just the one in April. Commodity inflation caused by the ME troubles and the QE policy in the US is weighing heavily on the EU. Trichet's first priority is always inflation and this focus is going to hurt the periphery.
Next week is going to be interesting keeping an eye on the spreads. A rate over 7%, as I have posted plenty of times back in December will trigger the next round of bailouts. The bond market is going to price in the risk of a rate hike pretty quickly forcing the debt crisis back to the foreground giving plenty of shorting opportunities as the risk carries through in the Euro.
Trichet would actually welcome another bailout as it gives confidence to the euro area overall. A well managed euro will give greater confidence and will only lead to a further fall of the Dollar.
We will see loads of trading opportunities in the weeks to come as the risk based whipsaws are back again. This is going to be another November/December with loads of 150-200 pip days both ways.
Right now I am scalping the shorts of this temp top here to see if we can get a decent run back down again as the next focus will be on NFP tomorrow.
Trading fundies have suited me very well over the last few weeks and have given plenty of fairly easy setups for decent runs.