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  • #2,641
  • May 5, 2009 11:05pm May 5, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting strat
What was the PASR that triggered you long?

Apart from 0.7300 level, I have different levels
The bullish candle, high lighted below triggered my long at 7435 which was above the high of the signal candle on my feed, and that same bullish candle closed above all previous higs at the 7300 level.
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  • #2,642
  • May 5, 2009 11:52pm May 5, 2009 11:52pm
Quoting rgrace
Even though I have a better looking shooting star on my data, I will not be taking this one. It is above the BOSS 50 which is also right around the S/R level I have at .7313. That along with the Psycho .7300 has me a little worried. I may be overly cautious, but this trade does not look as good as the last one to me.
Good strategy, PA and SR shouldn't contradict. Since 0.7300 is a very important SR level, we should watch PA to go long unless 0.7300 is broken decisively.
  • #2,643
  • Edited 2:45am May 6, 2009 2:33am | Edited 2:45am
Quoting strat
I am surprised no-one has mentioned USDCAD - Nicola, are you still knee deep in crude?

Opposite to AUDUSD, USDCAD broke through very important SUPPORT and has now thrown a Bond hammer out on my data which has closed above that support. I would like to think it has found support there but just above it is resistance at 1.1850. Also putting me off is my Momentum which is bearish and accelerating.

This is another to watch.
Hehe Crude is so bullish and finally broke out of a range.
I was short USDCAD and obviously closed it too early. I went short again and it keeps grinding its way down. Those of you that stayed all the way down, well done!
Today is crude inventories ... 10:30 US time. Crude shook off bad news last week, lets see if we do this week. A big move in crude will produce an opposite direction move in USDCAD but the way things look will probably only be a wobble.

Nicola
  • #2,644
  • May 6, 2009 3:41am May 6, 2009 3:41am
Hi team im back........hope you all had a nice holiday......only had 2 trades last month......nice though.....cadyen or swiss yen(cant remember) short at the begining of april and a little gbp/swiss short about 2 weeks ago....nice

didnt short any yen when Blackeagle did audyen long......(i wish id got a pin long there)...but hey ho.

Other than that just waiting.

Been demoing a new platform to accomodate......NEW CLIENTS!!!!should be all done by next week fingers crossed.... ups my account 400%,which is 400% up already from Oct 08 because of new investment....so thats 800% growth in my managed funds since Oct last year.....shizzer

Other than mentioning it cause im sssssssssssooooooo exicted.......... I wanted to point out that this is why we train our minds.Im so glad i really waited and did it properly.So im walking on air here looking for loot 4 years in the making....sweet as a nut....g
  • #2,645
  • May 6, 2009 3:42am May 6, 2009 3:42am
Just to clarify, neither James16 nor mbqb11 (the other senior trader of the J16 method on the forum) ever enter a bar on a retrace. Never. In fact James16 said in one of his webinars that he flat out doesn't see the point of it.

There are plenty of 'customisations' of the method on the thread, some better than others. As James has said, his is a method not a system and can be adapted and incorporated into your existing sytems.

Some seniors on there, if they wish to be aggressive with their entries, still play the breach of the bar but with a tighter stop than the nose....perhaps the second eye. Which can work. Lower win rate, higher risk to reward. Personally, from backtesting over 250 pin bars I have found entering on a 50% retrace, even with lower time frame price action, more often than lot loses money.
  • #2,646
  • May 6, 2009 3:57am May 6, 2009 3:57am
Hey Tiaforex....you have made a valid observation......but such entries like the ones you mention have a higher win rate if you only take them in harmony with the boss or big boss bars or a strong trending market........so by adding this harmony as a system feature and reducing your risk%........it becomes nice.

A nice thing to do in back testing is once you have a result like you have go back and overlay the higher time frames on the daily action your looking at....

If you can read price action it makes for good reading...

where are you in the cycle?...demo,live ect......good to see you on here.....g
  • #2,647
  • May 6, 2009 6:00am May 6, 2009 6:00am
Quoting elitejets
Hehe Crude is so bullish and finally broke out of a range.

Nicola
Not sure which month you are watching, but 55-47 range on crude is still valid on June contract. And even if it breaks out that range, there is an important SR area at 57-58, so unless 57-58 is broken, crude is sideways, IMO.
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  • #2,648
  • May 6, 2009 6:29am May 6, 2009 6:29am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting strat
I am surprised no-one has mentioned USDCAD

USDCAD broke through very important SUPPORT and has now thrown a Bond hammer out on my data which has closed above that support. I would like to think it has found support there but just above it is resistance at 1.1850. Also putting me off is my Momentum which is bearish and accelerating.

This is another to watch.
I'm watching, you lot are just throwing me of with the correlation to Oil

My charts look way better without all the momentum talk also.

Monthly - 20 crossed 50 long - good sign, but no PA
weekly - 50% retracement, will the hammer hold, bonus would be a close above 1.1850
Daily - hammer of support and swing low - weak candle size compaired to previous, wait for weekly confirmation first

thats what I have, hope it's close to yours


MPP
  • #2,649
  • May 6, 2009 6:43am May 6, 2009 6:43am
Quoting Blackeagle
Not sure which month you are watching, but 55-47 range on crude is still valid on June contract. And even if it breaks out that range, there is an important SR area at 57-58, so unless 57-58 is broken, crude is sideways, IMO.
Hi Blackeagle
Im in the June contract US crude too ...
I said yesterday if we break up through 54.50 then we break out of a range we have been in for months.
The range I meant in the the post you referred to was the one we have been stuck on for April (high of 53.25) which broke when the weekly hammer triggered.
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  • #2,650
  • May 6, 2009 6:47am May 6, 2009 6:47am
The only Central Bank that could still surprise us with rate cuts is the ECB.
The announcement is tomorrow (Thursday) at 13:30 UK time and 08:30 US Eastern time. Mr Trichet has made comments that he does not favour rate cuts and prefers alternate solutions (maybe printing money) so we will see what he has to say but it could have a big effect on Euro.

Early warning ... Friday is NFP
So far other unemployment figures have not been as bad as before, we will see.
  • #2,651
  • May 6, 2009 7:03am May 6, 2009 7:03am
Quoting CrudeCraig
The bullish candle, high lighted below triggered my long at 7435 which was above the high of the signal candle on my feed, and that same bullish candle closed above all previous higs at the 7300 level.
Craig, a bullish candle is NOT PASR - it is only as good as any other non PASR candle which limits your chances of success to that of a coin toss.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,652
  • May 6, 2009 7:30am May 6, 2009 7:30am
Hi all,

I’ve been meaning to post this for a week or so but couldn’t quite figure out how I was going to word it (or even write it) for fear of jinxing myself!

It was something I touched on in a roundabout way last week with a reply to Steve (cowboying), and the long and the short of it is (pun intended), since moving to higher timeframes, joining this thread, keeping a journal and generally treating this with the respect it deserves, I am profitable for the first time!

I hesitate to say consistently profitable as my journal only goes back six weeks and that’s a drop in the ocean, but I have not had a losing week since starting it.

Initially, I was taking a lot of ‘freestyle’ trades in addition to PASR trades, simply because I was trigger happy and felt I had to be trading. But since that first week (journal), I’ve been able to scale back, exercise patience and try to only pick the set ups which jump out at me.

If I have to look too hard for a trade, then I don’t take it. There have to be clear reasons in my mind as to why I’m taking it; S/R, PA, clear profit targets and BE zones.

Once in a position, I manage it quite aggressively on DAILY bars. I will always set a realistic TP1 area which might not offer good R/R, but allows me to release capital back into my account and move my stop to BE, protecting my balance.

Then if it continues in my chosen direction, great! I’ll manage my stop to lock in additional profit.

I know this has the disadvantage of not allowing the market to naturally retrace, but I am very very reluctant at this stage to ‘give up’ profit back to the market, even if it is a simple retrace before continuing – I’ve taken almost maximum potential from that move and if it is going to pause before continuing on its way, then PA should give me an opportunity to board the train again.

Another thing which has naturally developed and which I didn’t think possible for me when Baba G mentioned early on was that I don’t even think about number of pips anymore, but instead think in terms of % account growth, % account risk etc etc.

For example, I took two trades last week (plus one ticket on AUDUSD which wasn’t filled), which gave me 6% account growth - I couldn’t tell you the number of pips involved. When I remember trying to trade the 15M and thinking I had to make so many pips a day/week etc I don’t know whether to laugh or cry!

My account now stands, in 6 weeks, at 13% profit, with fewer trades yielding more profit.

I’m well aware these are early days for me and I’m not naive enough to think I’ve cracked it, but as quite a few people have joined the Path of Learning recently, I thought I should share the positive difference which this thread plus Strat’s, Gianni’s, Blackeagle’s etc advice, have made to my trading.

I don't even feel like I’m being 'patient' anymore; I’m not 'waiting' for trades, I’m just taking the right opportunities when they present themselves. No pressure, no stress. I understand for some who are used to trading lower timeframes, it can seem like PASR is never going to show its head on the daily, but it does, and when it does...happy days!

Anyway, enough from me and I apologise if this seems like a ramble, but just thought I’d share my experience so far and extend my thanks to Strat and his team for their patience and support, and of course to Lance for the Index and all the work he has put in for the benefit of others.

Dan
  • #2,653
  • May 6, 2009 9:38am May 6, 2009 9:38am
Quoting elitejets
The only Central Bank that could still surprise us with rate cuts is the ECB.
The announcement is tomorrow (Thursday) at 13:30 UK time and 08:30 US Eastern time. (CUT)

Early warning ... Friday is NFP
So far other unemployment figures have not been as bad as before, we will see.

ECB is 1245 Thursday UK time according to fxstreet.com economic calendar, and this is the normal time too. But NFP is 1330 UK time on Friday.
  • #2,654
  • May 6, 2009 9:53am May 6, 2009 9:53am
Quoting paulb
ECB is 1245 Thursday UK time according to fxstreet.com economic calendar, and this is the normal time too. But NFP is 1330 UK time on Friday.
Thank you Paul! My mistake.
I should add that is is Bank Of England tomorrow as well.
  • #2,655
  • May 6, 2009 11:20am May 6, 2009 11:20am
Hi Team Strat

My laptop arrived this morning and I've nearly finished installing my s/ware etc. Hurray just got to configure the laptop to the router at home tonight.

Missed all of you and your posts, will catch up later tonight..Nicole
  • #2,656
  • May 6, 2009 11:47am May 6, 2009 11:47am
Quoting paulb
ECB is 1245 Thursday UK time according to fxstreet.com economic calendar, and this is the normal time too. But NFP is 1330 UK time on Friday.
Trichet starts waffling at 1330 UK time. Which is sometimes as important as the announcement.
  • #2,657
  • May 6, 2009 1:54pm May 6, 2009 1:54pm
Hi Blackeagle

Many thanks for your time in replying re SR lines and your sound advice in how to draw them starting off on the monthly & working to daily. I shall practice more now....

Sorry for the delay in replying..my laptop died and my new one arrived today. I'm so glad to be back
Thanks again, Nicole
  • #2,658
  • May 6, 2009 2:19pm May 6, 2009 2:19pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Hi Strat

Thanks for your suggestions and for wanting to find out more.

I think that I am grasping the basics of the theory, but I haven’t progressed to the point where that knowledge consistently informs my actions. As you perfectly described it – knowledge ain’t matter if the psychology gets in the way.

I really like what AstonDan is saying about his development. Thanks for posting your thoughts! It’s really valuable stuff! You touch on a few key points that I need to take on board – from theory to practice. I regularly have quite a few really good trades but what happens after I get out of them is that I want to continue and that’s where I lose the bulk of my money. It’s about becoming more picky and trading only great setups.

“I don't even feel like I’m being 'patient' anymore; I’m not 'waiting' for trades, I’m just taking the right opportunities when they present themselves. No pressure, no stress.”

I believe that’s HUGE, because it sounds like a fundamental psychological shift, rather than “forcing” yourself against your inner drive. Congratulations man!

Strat you wrote:
“It seems to me like you are suffering from trading psychology, specifically NO PATIENCE and ABSOLUTELY NO DISCIPLINE without even considering your technical analysis skills.”

Thanks for the feedback! You are spot on of course. When it comes to trading I lose my mental composure at certain points. It’s like you know you shouldn’t but.... the Queen is enticing like Odysseus' Sirens.

There seems to be a specific pattern for me: Initially I tend to be focused, chilled out just waiting for my setups, enter my trade at the right time, ride it with a trailing stop (which I should manage less tightly though), eventually I get stopped out with a nice profit but then I think “What’s next?” And THAT tends to be my downfall. I jump on the next best trade, lose, jump on another one, lose and WHAM my daily profit evaporates into a loss. Repeat ad lib.

And yes, I will continue to read through this thread. No question. I am getting tons out of it – I am very grateful for the wisdom and fun you guys are putting into this!

Sid
  • #2,659
  • May 6, 2009 2:54pm May 6, 2009 2:54pm
Nice post AstonDan!!
Really pleased to see you on the path and learning well - 13% is a mad profit all things considered - most retail funds would have killed for that return over a year, let alone 6 weeks.

Well done mate.

My only word of caution ('casue I've been there) is STICK to the rules no matter what your account size. The temptation when flush is to commit all manner of sins based on an inflated account size matched with winners' ego! No matter what account size mate - stick to your rules - so important, even more so when profitable!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,660
  • May 6, 2009 3:15pm May 6, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting Grimweasel
The temptation when flush is to commit all manner of sins based on an inflated account size matched with winners' ego! No matter what account size mate - stick to your rules - so important, even more so when profitable!!
Cheers Grim! You're right of course, much sterner tests are to come.

I'm a bit 'zen' at the moment, 'what will be will be' sort of thing, but that's sooooo easy to say after a good run. If in six weeks time i'm back at zero %, would i still be as cool?!

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