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  • #861
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:15am Mar 20, 2009 1:15am
Quoting strat
Dan - same as your USDCHF - what price bar do you see telling you to go long?

Have you ever been on a LONG train journey, Morris Minor?
I see NO BARS telling me to go long, but i do see price reacting with important levels. This isn't a furious click on NEW ORDER button, just a wait and see.

Bars are only part of the solution, what they do around these levels is the really fun stuff. (IMO)

  • #862
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:25am Mar 20, 2009 1:25am
Quoting strat
Morris Minor - you are the odd ball!

The 20 is ALWAYS RED

The 50 is ALWAYS BLUE

Any chance you can come in line with the rest of us?
What? And 'conform' to the general way of doing things?!

Ok, for the group, but i'm not happy about it!
  • #863
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:37am Mar 20, 2009 1:37am
Quoting strat
Are you telling us you have done all this and you don't know?

Just one thing to add from me. The 20 is horizontal (no slope) - this tells us that prices are approaching balance or equilibrium which means buyers and sellers are in agreement with where the price is at NOW.

Markets are "energy" and are always in a state of balance or out of balance so what do you think will happen from here?
Now that is very interesting. Though it is a new concept to me, it makes practical sense. Buyers and sellers eventually have to come in agreement somewhere, which makes the energy analogy a good metaphor.

My thought for G/J is to look long. Target the 140.00 psycho and then the 141.70. Entries go above all the hullaballoo, on top of the inside bar and 138.00 resistance by 10 pips, or 138.10.

I posed it as a question because I was attempting the no free lunch style to get lurkers more involved. My attempt at a positive contribution to our trader family.

Anyways, you guys can call me Amin. The AS just made my username long enough to be valid.
Bang.
  • #864
  • Edited 2:13am Mar 20, 2009 1:48am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting bjohn34
Strat - Thanks for the comments. Let me take a shot at entry and SL points for your perusal.

Entry -...
The more aggressive you are in trading means you accept MORE RISK - if you are comfortable with this then that's your decision.

Let's look at your trade entry "x" pips above the OPEN

The first thing to notice is that we are very near a psychological round number level (psycho 1.2500). Banks, funds, hedges, trading houses and large institutions automatically trigger orders at round number levels especially a "00" number. That being the case, there will be a lot of action around this area as there will be a mixture of buy and sell orders. There are some threads that suggest placing orders at these levels but being the rebel I am, I like to stay away from the crowd (noise) and either get in before or after but, it is a personal choice.

Now if you place your buy order above the open, that means it is within the high. If the market comes up to test the high before resuming it's prior trend (remember probability and there is a 50/50 chance that it can do this), you will be filled and in a drawdown situation. If your plan allows for this, then it is fine.

Your SL placing is that which worries me most. A price reversal bar does not care where the 50% fib is or any other levels. The CRITICAL levels which MUST be respected for the safest and lowest risk trade on price reversal bars are the high and the low.

Let's assume you got filled just above the open and price took off and then hit the sellers at 1.2500 who had more volume (orders) than the buyers. What do you think happens? Prices start to fall, triggering other sellers AND traders STILL holding shorts who missed the first opportunity to get out at the low. They will then drive the price back down to the "old" low to get their second chance to get out. This is your double bottom.

In this case, bj, you have been taken to the cleaners and wrung out to dry.

For me, my buy stop goes above the high and any round numbers (giving up pips doesn't bother me) and my SL goes below the low or below any round number or below support if there is an immediate support below the low of the bar.

This way, you don't get filled (Stop Running excepted) if prices don't reverse and you live to fight another day.

This is not just aimed at you but at the many guys here who are still thinking "PROFIT" first instead of "LOSS".

We must forget how much we are going to make, believe me, if you are trading PRICE ACTION, it will take care of itself. What we MUST control is HOW MUCH WE WILL LOSE.

PLAN your trade with whatever is your risk tolerance and then let it play itself out until the next bar. Review everything again and then, if necessary, revise your plan (maybe move SL) and let it play out again.

bj, you should know this as you are often on Jacko's thread and he is the best at planning a trade and letting it run

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #865
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:57am Mar 20, 2009 1:57am
Quoting geoffrod
Respectfully lance, i am not quite sure what exactely you are asking, are you asking how i decided where to draw the lines, ???

I am thinking you are trying to get me to see a light bulb come on, but i am a little confused, sorry
Yes, he is Geoff so don't be offended, he is only trying to help you. He is not trying to catch you out, only to get you to see what you are not yet seeing.

Stick with it, Geoff and work with him - you will be glad you did, I promise!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #866
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:02am Mar 20, 2009 2:02am
Quoting AstonDan
I see NO BARS telling me to go long, but i do see price reacting with important levels. This isn't a furious click on NEW ORDER button, just a wait and see.

Bars are only part of the solution, what they do around these levels is the really fun stuff. (IMO)
The bullish bar would be the final piece in your jig saw
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #867
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:03am Mar 20, 2009 2:03am
Quoting AstonDan
What? And 'conform' to the general way of doing things?!

Ok, for the group, but i'm not happy about it!
Well don't start throwing your toys out of the pram like someone else I can think of!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #868
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:11am Mar 20, 2009 2:11am
Quoting AminAS
Now that is very interesting. Though it is a new concept to me, it makes practical sense. Buyers and sellers eventually have to come in agreement somewhere, which makes the energy analogy a good metaphor.

My thought for G/J is to look long. Target the 140.00 psycho and then the 141.70. Entries go above all the hullaballoo, on top of the inside bar and 138.00 resistance by 10 pips, or 138.10.

I posed it as a question because I was attempting the no free lunch style to get lurkers more involved. My attempt at a positive contribution to our trader...
Amin, "energy" is not a metaphor. The market IS energy and IS governed by The Laws of Nature.

You haven't tuned into my weird sense of humour yet, Amin. I was joking with you about direction.

Just a word about the BOSS - she doesn't like being messed with until she is finished at the end of the week after 5pm NY time!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #869
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:12am Mar 20, 2009 2:12am
Quoting strat
Yes, he is Geoff so don't be offended, he is only trying to help you. He is not trying to catch you out, only to get you to see what you are not yet seeing.

Stick with it, Geoff and work with him - you will be glad you did, I promise!
Hey strat,lance, absolutely no offence taken, i stuck to this thread and its contents like glue,
so lance are you asking if i understand why price is consolidated at these levels specifically ?
  • #870
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:32am Mar 20, 2009 2:32am
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy march20 09.gif Size: 32 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #871
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:44am Mar 20, 2009 2:44am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
Hi Strat, on that particular chart i think i can simplify it even more. Lose the two lines and look at how price reacted with the BOSS twice before give us an opportunity to trade on the third touch.
  • #872
  • Edited 3:31am Mar 20, 2009 2:51am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting strat
The more aggressive you are in trading means you accept MORE RISK - if you are comfortable with this then that's your decision.

Let's look at your trade entry "x" pips above the OPEN

The first thing to notice is that we are very near a psychological round number level (psycho 1.2500). Banks, funds, hedges, trading houses and large institutions automatically trigger orders at round number levels especially a "00" number. That being the case, there will be a lot of action around this area as there will be a mixture of buy and sell orders. There...
Strat - It helps a lot. On the entry, I would not take the more aggressive approach as I am by nature a fiscal conservative.

Just so I am clear, in placing the S/L, Your conservative preference is to place the S/L below the reversal bar and ignore any intermediate S/R. If that S/L is too far away for your risk tolerance, you would either adjust position size or pass on the trade. I understand that but in this particular case, with the very long tail on the reversal bar, it would seem to me that if it headed that way very far, you would realize that you had guessed wrong and would want to get out of the trade after some point before 300 pips.

Then again I am just learning so may have my head up my A**. If so, it is not the first time adn I am sure not the last.

thanks again. Is nice in SH today. 20 deg and sunny
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #873
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:05am Mar 20, 2009 4:05am
Quoting strat
So, you're the other guy with the balls that Baba G keeps looking for!

I wouldn't be bragging on here OR ANYWHERE that I had gone long from a H1 hammer - I would be PETRIFIED!

By the way - didn't you just send me a post saying NO MORE SHORT TFs for you?
I know Strat and it will be my last H1 Hammer - period - Nic and I made a pact last night that we will not trade anything below 4hr ever again (until we are uber profitable) So, if you see anything related to below 4hr from me ever again please feel free to ban me from your thread!!! (and everyone else)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #874
  • Edited 4:31am Mar 20, 2009 4:25am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting strat
I still don't understand why a good looking blonde with brains wants to be messing in the dark with black, slimey, smelling stuff!

But, she is good!
LOL - But trading CAD I suggest you take a peek now and then.
I like the USDCAD long, it is a good looking candle ... but crude going up will hold back the climb of USDCAD.

Nic
  • #875
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:40am Mar 20, 2009 4:40am
Haven't posted for a while, been very busy at the day job.

I have been studying the thread and charts though, but couldn't see anything more than a forest in the distance for a while. The more I studied the closer I get to the forest and now see that it is made up of individual trees. The light goes on .

Now I'm a bit gutted. I realise I was doing this stuff when I first started trading about 6 years ago. NAKED I mean. And boy was I naked! I traded daily candlestick patterns with nothing more than a stocastic to give me over bought/sold indication. No ma's. No S/R. Nakeeeeeeed.

I'm now trying to figure out why I went to lower tf? I was pretty close to where we are today, just needed a nudge in the S/R direction. I thank Strat for that, cheers. I've now added my own S/R levels to my daily chart.

I followed Steve Bigalow for a while, on the candlesticks. His SL philosophy is to close on any trading below/above the signal candle. This is very much in line with what Strat is teaching i.e SL below/above the low/high, not part way.

One thing that I keep seeing is that all of the successful traders I have/am reading do very similar things. Thats no fluke.

Now, who sang that?

TonyH
  • #876
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:49am Mar 20, 2009 4:49am
I like usdcad long too. The support at 1.222 is strong because it intersects the rising TL from the weekly chart AND the boss so you get 3 for 1 super duper deal support tastic support!!

Combine that triple bounce with a hammer and we could see another attempt long at breaking that key 1.3000 level.

For safety I would put a buy-stop in at 1.2515 (above hammer high and SR level) with a stop-sell at 1.2222 (lower SR level and base of hammer nose).

As Nic alludes too, AUD and CAD are/were commodity driven currencies so they used to follow the upticks in Oil and Gold. Not sure if that correlation is supported any more or if we should even think about that - should we just trade what we see on the chart? - if the you believe in the 'efficient market hypothesis' then all information available at a given time should be reflected in the charts!! :-)

If PA does break the boss then we could see a drop to the 50 ma currently in the 1.5000 level. eek!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #877
  • Mar 20, 2009 5:43am Mar 20, 2009 5:43am
Quoting geoffrod
Hey strat,lance, absolutely no offense taken, i stuck to this thread and its contents like glue,
so lance are you asking if i understand why price is consolidated at these levels specifically ?
I am starting with the basic questions I had to gnaw on when I really began "thinking" about the market. I think there are a million reasons WHY price consolidated on those levels, more reasons than I could ever figure out; what I was curious about is how it came to you to drag a horizontal line to those exact points on your chart and release the mouse button.

What criteria did you use?

I started asking myself "why" a lot, and the ideas started falling like dominos... I just thought I would give your first domino a push...

Lance
  • #878
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:05am Mar 20, 2009 6:05am
UJ above 95 did anyone see the space there?
Gj inverted H&S 4hr....ahem...
EG space to retrace.
Scout deployed on orders from the boss to enter no mans land between 137.40 and 90.
Although recovery biult on rice paper seems to be an appetite for it.
If now free scout dies will be looking anywhere between 134.15 and 132.90 for another scout possibly main force.

Hey G nice to see you enthusiastic and explaining something fairly unlike you, a counter trend low yield play. Excellent to see the three headed approah rolling out. B&B ontrend rollers, counter trend low risk/yield and the soon to be back to consolidation munching no doubt.

Those trendies on gj slowing train but not quite turning...yet.

raag marvels
SS
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #879
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:14am Mar 20, 2009 6:14am
Quoting rogueforex
I am starting with the basic questions I had to gnaw on when I really began "thinking" about the market. I think there are a million reasons WHY price consolidated on those levels, more reasons than I could ever figure out; what I was curious about is how it came to you to drag a horizontal line to those exact points on your chart and release the mouse button.

What criteria did you use?

I started asking myself "why" a lot, and the ideas started falling like dominos... I just thought I would give your first domino a push...

Lance
Hi Lance,
firstly thanks heaps for asking me questions that make me think about stuff i need to think about but dont do often enough.

i have been doing some thinking, and i think a little light just came on, not sure till i get a response but here goes, the reason I picked those exact points to click my mouse and drop a line is that, that is where the action is, that is where price is going to move from, whether it be up or down, "that is where its at".
thats all i got
the fact that these line more often than not are at round numbers, is just the way it turns out, if price started ranging not at round numbers that wouldn't matter, we would still know sooner or later it had to breakout.
cheers
Geoff
  • #880
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:55am Mar 20, 2009 6:55am
Quoting geoffrod
Hi Lance,
firstly thanks heaps for asking me questions that make me think about stuff i need to think about but don't do often enough.

i have been doing some thinking, and i think a little light just came on, not sure till i get a response but here goes, the reason I picked those exact points to click my mouse and drop a line is that, that is where the action is, that is where price is going to move from, whether it be up or down, "that is where its at".
thats all i got
the fact that these line more often than not are at round numbers, is just...
I know the charts you posted are 30,000 feet views but as you get closer in start to think about what the goal is. It is to identify what price levels are going to hold up in the future and indicate where PA will have even more significance. Confluence is the goal. As Strat and others have said, one piece by itself has far less importance than when it lines up with others. So identifying CORRECT SR levels from a monthly, weekly and daily level will really take your trading to the next level, and put you into only the A trades.
The trick is to find those levels, and to do that you really have to think why am I putting this line on the chart? What told me to do it? What made it significant? I am not trying to be a pain and cryptic, but it will mean everything when you get there via your own route. Plus, by not getting all the answers served up, you may come upon things none of us ever thought of and that helps us all. Just read thru the index for ideas and look at some of the charts Strat has posted, you'll start to see it.
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