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  • #33,541
  • Jan 4, 2020 4:44pm Jan 4, 2020 4:44pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Now you have to ask yourself, "Is this observation tradeable?" My low hanging fruit strategy are swing failures at the 38-61 levels (on the new week) especially after a late week markup. See here for explanation: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12489736
I found it interesting (and subscribed to you). I'd say that's a confirmation that I should keep observing for a while to find a possible "edge"
  • #33,542
  • Jan 4, 2020 4:52pm Jan 4, 2020 4:52pm
Quoting finally-2020
{quote} I found it interesting (and subscribed to you). I'd say that's a confirmation that I should keep observing for a while to find a possible "edge"
They are interesting levels for sure for either price continuation or swing failures in the new week.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #33,543
  • Edited 5:46pm Jan 4, 2020 5:16pm | Edited 5:46pm
Hi guys this weeks FF calendar is horrendous missing key events and furthermore high impact events are colored yellow when they should be red.
Please look here for better view
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

Having said above I no longer will post my calendar I think it increases spoon feeding and people get lazy.I spent 3hrs on it so far and I am only half way.
Dont think I like to share my labor only because its everyone's responsibility to know what's coming and have some ideas how to respond.
If you dont know what I am referring please use search function on this thread type Calendar and you'll see plenty of examples and PDF examples on clipboard.

We got bunch of idiots going around forums saying nobody makes money in forex...link Well requires work and guys who do put work make money.Nothing in life is achieved that is worthy of achievement without effort.
This is professional thread where we take Forex as a job and make money.Its work and if you think you are going to succeed without effort and hard work I'll say quit now and save your money.
Having said this I am looking forward for next week!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,544
  • Edited Jan 5, 2020 4:42am Jan 4, 2020 6:53pm | Edited Jan 5, 2020 4:42am
My Calendar Analysis for the upcoming week:

This week I don't pay attention to USD data since US conflict with Iran is too big to ignore which means news headlines will probably overshadow other events.

Monday

GBP: Composite PMI (Dec)
Generally, UK's PMI shouldn't be a big market mover and, with likely limited political news for U.K.'s divorce on Jan. 31, focus will probably shift to BoE and whether it will cut. Since a weaker November GDP and a rate cut are widely expected, I personally like to see a weaker PMI to go short on GBP. So for me WPP and even R38 will be levels to watch:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EUR: Markit Composite PMI (Dec) + German: Services PMI (Dec)

Although some FX calendars have not ranked this event as High Impact, but this week they'll attract a lot of attentions. If last week's improvements continue, this should be interpreted as "the beginning of an end" meaning we can keep a positive sentiment that PMI's are moving towards 50 territory. If so, they'll be positive enough for EUR to stop getting further dragged by Brexit headwinds; at least in the short run...

Tuesday

EUR: CPI (YoY) (Dec)
After 11 months of disappointing PMIs, last week we finally saw signs of stabilisation for EUR zone and specifically German and France. This weeks CPI, if printed as expected and, even better, more positive than forecast, can provide grounds for some beautiful upward reactions. But what if not? Like I said, good PMIs and Business confidence improvement to its greatest level since June, suggests some signs of rising optimism which means I'll still wait to buy dips no matter what:

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Wednsday

CAD: Ivey PMI (Dec)
We all saw what happened between US and Iran; the dramatic reaction of oil price was anything but logical with regard to the market share of Iran's oil these days. But like they say: anything can happen. I personally prefer to get out of way when it comes to emotional trading where gossips take over!

NZD: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

I might be wrong, but I've noticed NZD often follows global macroeconomics and geo-political events rather than its own data; especially those related to China and its sister: Australia. Although in both cases we've seen some up-pushing events in recent weeks, but the problem is NZD has already come too far. However, this doesn't mean we must expect downward movements, but rather I'd say a ranging market seems more logical to my eyes. In this regard, honestly I wouldn't trade "both" ways since fundamentals are pointing more to up than down:

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Friday

AUD: Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

Last week, China lowered the amount of reserves that banks need to keep on hold. This will inject fresh liquidity into their banking system and is a good sign Beijing will boost economic growth in 2020 which is a + for AUD.

But downside is AUD has already come too far and I can't imagine any further upward movements until something real happens. In addition to this, Australia's bush fires have given rise to some serious concerns over it's near-term growth.

bottom line: I'm expecting a range market for AUD which, like Davit always says, is a blessing; in other words, I've fallen in love with range markets too but from the look of it, next station looks like a buy:

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  • #33,545
  • Edited 9:18pm Jan 4, 2020 7:10pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting Davit
this weeks FF calendar is horrendous missing key events and furthermore high impact events are colored yellow when they should be red.
This one's worth seeing too:

https://au.investing.com/economic-calendar/
  • #33,546
  • Jan 4, 2020 7:54pm Jan 4, 2020 7:54pm
Quoting finally-2020
My Calendar Analysis for the upcoming week: Monday GBP: Composite PMI (Dec) Generally, UK's PMI shouldn't be a big market mover and, with likely limited political news for U.K.'s divorce on Jan. 31, focus will probably shift to BoE and whether it will cut. Since a weaker November GDP and a rate cut are widely expected, I personally like to see a weaker PMI to go short on GBP. So for me WPP and even R38 will be levels to watch: {image} Tuesday EUR: CPI (YoY) (Dec) After 11 months of disappointing PMIs, last week we finally saw signs of stabilisation...
You glossed over ton of key events.Look again and go over.Some examples below but there are more
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI you missed it and one of the key fundamentals market movers.Come on get a grip
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,547
  • Edited 9:10pm Jan 4, 2020 8:53pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Now you have to ask yourself, "Is this observation tradeable?" My low hanging fruit strategy are swing failures at the 38-61 levels (on the new week) especially after a late week markup. See here for explanation: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12489736
Because of my limited time on the charts which prevents me from managing my trades I have started to use your method looking at 'Late week mark-ups' and then waiting for price to start reversing on 38/61 mid weeks watch price behaviour and most times waiting fro it to break through the daily open.

TP = 10 ADR +10pips (1:1)

Furthermore i document the stats on each pair winners and losers.
  • #33,548
  • Jan 4, 2020 8:54pm Jan 4, 2020 8:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You glossed over ton of key events.Look again and go over.Some examples below but there are more ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI you missed it and one of the key fundamentals market movers.Come on get a grip {image} {image} {image} {image}
You're right Davit. It was because the calendars I use (including FF) haven't ranked those events as High Impact. But you're right; I'll correct my post...
  • #33,549
  • Jan 4, 2020 9:17pm Jan 4, 2020 9:17pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You glossed over ton of key events.Look again and go over.Some examples below but there are more ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI you missed it and one of the key fundamentals market movers.Come on get a grip {image} {image} {image} {image}
Actually I did update my calendar post knowing it's never complete; but I tried my best ...
  • #33,550
  • Jan 5, 2020 3:07am Jan 5, 2020 3:07am
Quoting finally-2020
Something I have observed for the couple of past weeks is, if you set your pivot point indicator to project next week's levels (instead of the current week) on Fridays, the reaction to R38.2 and S38.2 is almost inevitable. Unfortunately FF doesn't allow me to attache more than a certain number of attachments per post, otherwise I'd attach more screenshots for almost all the currency pairs I have in my Market Watch. To Davit: If you think this post shouldn't be here, let me know so I can delete it ASAP. To others: Don't take this for granted. Like...
There is a problem in your calculation. The pivots are calculated with high, low and close price of previous week. So it makes absolutely no sense to look at next week levels when the actual week is not finished. There will be always a "reaction " at R38 and S38, since open price can never be below S38 at opening of the week.... So better forget this theory.
  • #33,551
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:21am Jan 5, 2020 4:21am
Quoting finally-2020;12687759 suggests some signs of rising optimism which means [B
I'll still wait to buy dips no matter what[/b]:
Not picking on you my criticism is for others as well.I dont want you to have this mindset.Market can go very deep opposite to your position and thinking example Brexit looming by the end of the month and that's bigger event then anything Euro experienced since its existence.
Its important to have fluid mindset that is let the market and data create the trade bias not "no matter what"
please never write whatever you post its your best.I know its not not even close.Dont sell yourself short.Your calendar is ok for beginner pivoter but its not the best even for beginner.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,552
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:28am Jan 5, 2020 4:28am
There are some pointers for next week
Euro can gain after PMI's and best place is going long EC EA EN specially like EC at 45 has lots of room north.Oil is poised to drop after knee jerk reaction and with it the CAD so I am anticipating weakening CAD strengthening the Euro. AUD and NZD can get hit hard as well.

Below my overview from my calendar.

USD coming off strong sell off partly due to end of the year stock rally and also stream of red data coming out specially consumer confidence, manufacturing, red house sell numbers indicating slowing of economy.While this is true we should not overlook the fact no country is doing better economically
hence renewed USD bull sentiment can't be overlooked specially its interest rate is pretty attractive.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,553
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:37am Jan 5, 2020 4:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Not picking on you my criticism is for others as well.I dont want you to have this mindset.Market can go very deep opposite to your position and thinking example Brexit looming by the end of the month and that's bigger event then anything Euro experienced since its existence. Its important to have fluid mindset that is let the market and data create the trade bias not "no matter what" please never write whatever you post its your best.I know its not not even close.Dont sell yourself short.Your calendar is ok for beginner pivoter but its...
Thanks Davit. I think I just violated the "anything can happen" rule by saying "no matter what"; I shouldn't have thought like that
  • #33,554
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:49am Jan 5, 2020 4:49am
To get an idea what I am looking for look up Kathy Lien calendar on google or anything by her and read.She is in my opinion one of the best out there.Have not seen anyone better.Her insights can give you an idea what and how professionals think.
Goal is to approach the market from professional view instead of amateur retail who most part stuck on crayon indicators and oscilators.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,555
  • Jan 5, 2020 5:25am Jan 5, 2020 5:25am
Quoting Davit
To get an idea what I am looking for look up Kathy Lien calendar on google or anything by her and read.She is in my opinion one of the best out there.Have not seen anyone better.Her insights can give you an idea what and how professionals think. Goal is to approach the market from professional view instead of amateur retail who most part stuck on crayon indicators and oscilators.
Kathy Lien & Boris Schlossberg
http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/

Investing.com
https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2052513
  • #33,556
  • Jan 5, 2020 6:44am Jan 5, 2020 6:44am
AUDNZD
Picking away at AN over the past 4 weeks.
I learned from a Master, Bill Williams, in the early 2000's to look at Close Prices on H4, D1 and W1.
My trades although light, have been picking away at R38, S38 but closely looking at Daily Open (NY) and London Open. Refer to my earlier Posts on their importance.

Image 1 AUDNZD H4 Candle Chart

Image 2 AUDNZD H4 Line Chart - Close Price
Have we got a significant Descending Triangle? Will there be a thrust down after AUD News this week??

Image 3 AUDNZD Trade Summary over 4 weeks
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Attached Image
  • #33,557
  • Jan 5, 2020 8:57am Jan 5, 2020 8:57am
My Calendar Events week two January

Looking at events there are 4 key Currencies in sharp focus this week USD CAD EUR AUD

Sun
CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks

Mon
EUR German Retail Sales m/m Projection positive of 1% from -1.9%, usually this isn't a market mover, but could provide some direction to EUR on early week.
CAD RMPI m/m Change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. Recent data has been red, if print red, could help CAD bears.
NZD NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) Previous of -35. If come red should do wonders to NZD bears. AN on watchlist for longs. Look also on EN where price is.

Tues
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y Projection positive 1.3% from 1.0%. If data come as expected, EC and EN should fly north.
NZD GDT Price Index Previous -5.1%. If reder, could provide some boost north to AN, EN.
CAD Ivey PMI Projection 60.2 from 60. UC and AC on watchlist for longs.
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Projection to edge up 54.5 from 53.9.
AUD Building Approvals m/m Projection of 2.1% from -8.1%.

Weds
EUR German Factory Orders m/m Projection positive 0.2% from -0.4%.
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Projection to edge up 160K from 67K. This may have a muted impact, markets will be looking at Friday numbers
AUD Trade Balance
CNY CPI y/y Projection of 4.7% from 4.5%. Green here should help AUD and NZD.

Thurs
EUR German Industrial Production m/m Projection to edge up 0.9% from -1.7%.
CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks Poloz had previously viewed interest rates as appropriate to support the economy. Since then, data have been far from impresisive, any shift in sentiment towards monetary policy should be good for CAD bears. On the other side, he may hold fire until labour market data be released on Fri to take any action. UC and AC on watchlist for longs.
AUD Retail Sales m/m Projection positive 0.4%. AC and AN on watchlist for longs.

Fri
CAD Employment Change Projection to edge up 31.8K from -71.2K. If red this will do wonders for CAD shorts. UC and AC are my prime candidates.
CAD Unemployment Rate Projection to improve to 5.8% from 5.9%.
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m Projection of 0.3% from 0.2%. If data come green could help USD bulls. UC on watchlist for longs.
USD Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast of 150K from 266K previously.
USD Unemployment Rate To be steady at 3.5%.

I am looking for longs on UC, AC, AN maybe EC, EN (both I need to be surgical on entries due to swap fees).
For shorts, none in mind ATM.

JPY crosses are tempting to go long like AJ and NJ, but UJ has a lot of room south (check Daily TF) and AU, NU it's at swing top.
This situation with US-Iran may continue to put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD. JPY is perceived as a safe-haven. Not touching this for now.

Let's pile the pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #33,558
  • Jan 5, 2020 2:55pm Jan 5, 2020 2:55pm
Quoting finally-2020
{quote} Thank you PPXDF. Anyways, the point here is not indicators etc; but, like I said, the interesting reaction to 38.2%
i'm very worried about adding another variable to my trading edge, investigate this some more and see how it can work for you.
Capital preservation, live to trade another day
  • #33,559
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:47pm Jan 5, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting Davit
Hi guys this weeks FF calendar is horrendous missing key events and furthermore high impact events are colored yellow when they should be red. Please look here for better view https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar Having said above I no longer will post my calendar I think it increases spoon feeding and people get lazy.I spent 3hrs on it so far and I am only half way. Dont think I like to share my labor only because its everyone's responsibility to know what's coming and have some ideas how to respond. If you dont know what I am...
It's interesting between different websites where the news events are featuring different levels of importance, different estimated numbers, and even different numbers when they come out. An interesting example was last week was on Wednesday FF had US ISM manufacturing marked as a RED flag event consensus 48.1 and a RED miss @47.2. myfxbook had Markit Manufacturing PMI coming out 15 minutes earlier and marked as an AMBER event consensus 52.5 and a miss @ 52.4. The question is which data are we supposed to believe. One thing I like about myfxbook is it counts down and starts flashing in the last minute then dings on the screen with the news right on schedule FF is lagging way behind these days and you have to refresh the screen if and when the data comes up. I've found lags of 10 and 15 plus minutes not uncommon on FF.
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #33,560
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:51pm Jan 5, 2020 4:51pm
Happy and profitable week from Amsterdam.
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