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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #78,801
  • Oct 31, 2018 2:05am Oct 31, 2018 2:05am
I could be wrong, but methinks the big drop is starting (or is about to), with TP at ~110.75.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #78,802
  • Oct 31, 2018 2:19am Oct 31, 2018 2:19am
Quoting doji
I could be wrong, but methinks the big drop is starting (or is about to), with TP at ~110.75.
yes there is a big drop happening but the question what time ? and what is the top ?

for me I think there will be no serious selling during London period. but on NY the selling will start
  • #78,803
  • Oct 31, 2018 4:10am Oct 31, 2018 4:10am
Quoting msniper
{quote} yes there is a big drop happening but the question what time ? and what is the top ? for me I think there will be no serious selling during London period. but on NY the selling will start
If I may ask, how do you know/guess which session the selling will start?

Really hoping for a good sell off.
I am still a NOOB!!! Damn, there goes another 10 pips!
  • #78,804
  • Oct 31, 2018 4:16am Oct 31, 2018 4:16am
Quoting Icebot53
{quote} If I may ask, how do you know/guess which session the selling will start? Really hoping for a good sell off.
I didn't study the time analysis yet. Its just from experience and following some harmonic pattern.

am watching GJ and it gave me a possible time of reversal after 5 hours so I assumed even UJ will sell off also
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  • #78,805
  • Oct 31, 2018 5:52am Oct 31, 2018 5:52am
Quoting Icebot53
{quote} If I may ask, how do you know/guess which session the selling will start? Really hoping for a good sell off.
its not good man trade with hope...
  • #78,806
  • Oct 31, 2018 6:29am Oct 31, 2018 6:29am
Acknowledging how strong yesterday's daily candle was, and that it broke through short term resistance, I think a sell off would have to be news related (which is yet to be known).

I can't see that such momentum can turn in a day, but I guess that's why money management is so important.

I think we see a revisit of 114.50 before we see 111.00 again.
  • #78,807
  • Edited 8:06am Oct 31, 2018 6:46am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting Luzbay
Acknowledging how strong yesterday's daily candle was, and that it broke through short term resistance, I think a sell off would have to be news related (which is yet to be known). I can't see that such momentum can turn in a day, but I guess that's why money management is so important. I think we see a revisit of 114.50 before we see 111.00 again.
That's what makes UJ and EURGBP such great pairs to trade, anything is possible, with tight highs and lows.

In other news: Before and After, and now we should see price retrace back to 112.5-112.2.

But price could keep pushing higher, this gain has been very vertical on the 4 hour. Normally we see a solid retracement with such gains but when will it end, or has it already, hmmm?
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #78,808
  • Edited 7:43am Oct 31, 2018 7:32am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} Our triangle did not hold. I think if it crawls back up to resistance again, there is a chance it will bounce back down. Just my best guess. {image}
Pretty good fakeout on the 5min, punched 7 pips through the 200MA and back up now. I'd say 12-15 pips through the 5min 200MA looks like a definitive break. UJ's been frighteningly technical to the dot in the last few weeks.
  • #78,809
  • Oct 31, 2018 7:53am Oct 31, 2018 7:53am
I shorted UJ just now at 113.25 based on my analysis that I posted earlier today
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  • #78,810
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:07am Oct 31, 2018 8:07am
Quoting msniper
I shorted UJ just now at 113.25 based on my analysis that I posted earlier today {image}
I like the double top so far. But if we triple top up to 113.33 again, may see a smaller pump up to 113.50-60 before bulls start profit taking after they've stopped out any remaining stubborn shorts from last week, or we begin moving back to 38.2 retrace and support at 112.60 without the pump. Adding more to my current short if we hit 113.50-60.
  • #78,811
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:08am Oct 31, 2018 8:08am
Quoting Arkv
{quote} I like the double top so far. The only scenarios is either a smaller pump up to 113.50-60 before bulls start profit taking after they've stopped out any remaining stubborn shorts from last week, or we begin moving back to 38.2 retrace and support at 112.60 without the pump.
yah its possible to hit 113.5x or 113.8x before going down. but I have to short now incase I don't miss the train hehe
  • #78,812
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:21am Oct 31, 2018 8:21am
To offer a contrarian, but uncomplicated, view --

The daily chart is making higher highs and higher lows.

For that reason solely, I'm staying long.
  • #78,813
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:32am Oct 31, 2018 8:32am
There's zero reason to be shorting now, gang.

We saw nothing but calm consolidation overnight. Now equities are looking to open strong, giving USDJPY a tailwind.

I tweeted about this two hours ago: https://twitter.com/CryptoCambist/st...98142378659840

Easy money!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #78,814
  • Oct 31, 2018 9:03am Oct 31, 2018 9:03am
Quoting msniper
{quote} yah its possible to hit 113.5x or 113.8x before going down. but I have to short now incase I don't miss the train hehe
I agree. Stawks are up but U/J is struggling here. Indicates to me large sell orders.

113.5 is major resistance.
  • #78,815
  • Oct 31, 2018 9:22am Oct 31, 2018 9:22am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} I agree. Stawks are up but U/J is struggling here. Indicates to me large sell orders. 113.5 is major resistance.

Give it time.

We had a great move yesterday and it needs time to consolidate, let the moving averages catch up, etc. That's healthy.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #78,816
  • Oct 31, 2018 9:47am Oct 31, 2018 9:47am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Give it time. We had a great move yesterday and it needs time to consolidate, let the moving averages catch up, etc. That's healthy.
higher tfs look promising. 114.5 is doable, we may see it next week perhaps. i am trying to buy on retracements.
As Above, So Below
  • #78,817
  • Oct 31, 2018 9:55am Oct 31, 2018 9:55am
Nice H&S painted on lower tfs. Awaiting break of neckline below 113.15 to add to shorts
  • #78,818
  • Oct 31, 2018 10:00am Oct 31, 2018 10:00am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
Nice H&S painted on lower tfs. Awaiting break of neckline below 113.15 to add to shorts
Same. Reduced positioning now at 5min 200ma support again, will add back to shorts on break of 113 or up at 113.5.

Impressive SPX breakout of the bearish trendline, but looks capped by 100MA hourly. UJ pretty mellow response to the breakout, but better to wait for definitive break of the 5min 200MA.
  • #78,819
  • Oct 31, 2018 10:56am Oct 31, 2018 10:56am
If anyone interested in price action..they can go through this link....
http://bit.ly/2F60liH
https://dailypriceaction.com/daily-s...setup_10_31_18
Both the links are same.


What a drop..... congratulations to all who have shorted this pair.
  • #78,820
  • Oct 31, 2018 11:00am Oct 31, 2018 11:00am
Glad I got out at 113.27.

I took a sell position before passing out last night (early a.m.) at 113.08, and woke up to this:

I hope everyone else is doing well on this pair...
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
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