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The Fed and markets have been engaged in a bruising duel for the past six months. Round 6 should have been an easy one for the Fed given reasonably well behaved equity and FX markets, surging energy prices and signs that global GDP growth was ...
The Federal Reserve has 23 more days worth of data and market developments to analyse before its policy meeting. China’s official and (unofficial) Caixin manufacturing data for May will be released tomorrow and Friday before the usual deluge of ...
• 75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in the 23 June referendum, in a survey ...
Markets, which tend to focus on US non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, may be relying on an incomplete picture of the US labour market which fails to fully take into account a still sizeable pool of available workers. Job creation has been ...
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December ...
The US policy rate path remains a major source of uncertainty for global markets, with the rates market far more dovish than FOMC members. Someone will ultimately be proven wrong and this will impact asset prices, including the dollar. Previous ...
The causes behind the current meltdown in global equities, commodity prices and EM currencies are complex, inter-connected and at times self-reinforcing. But at the heart of the problem lies the inability of policy-makers from Washington to Beijing ...