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  • What if the Fed hikes, leaves rates on hold…or cuts?

    From olivierdesbarres.co.uk

    The US policy rate path remains a major source of uncertainty for global markets, with the rates market far more dovish than FOMC members. Someone will ultimately be proven wrong and this will impact asset prices, including the dollar. Previous hiking cycles suggest that macro and market conditions in the US and globally are not conducive to the US Federal Reserve hiking four times this year, as currently forecast by FOMC members. At the same time, resilient US and global core inflation and strong US non-farm payrolls currently argue against the Fed taking the unprecedented step of reversing its recent rate hike. At ... (full story)

It does not matter what the Fed do now, the market is already going to do what it was going to do based on years of past swings. One event does not change the market. It is the collective sumation of years of data that will dictate its path in the future. Consider your life, you are where you are now because of countless decisions you made up until this point in time. Your next decision will be based on all of your past decisions and their outcome. Your past is shaping your future wheather you like it or not and the same applies to the market.
That may well be the case, which is why I tried to summarize years of US and global macro data into more user-friendly tables (see Figure 3 for example). While the past is not always a good guide to the future, it is a helpful place to start.
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  • Posted: Jan 30, 2016 2:49pm
  • Submitted by:
     odesbarr
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 2  /  Views: 3,188