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Joined Jul 2010
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Status: Prince of All Profits
|35 Comments
Well that was nice and easy, got my sell order trigged at 1.096, and by the time I looked at my chart it +40 pips. rebounded before I could exit, so I scored 30 pips literally in all of about a minute. Crazy!
Correct answer: We don't know. This big of a drop without a reason...if we don't get a news alert explaining it, then it's a stop run, which means that there's also a good chance we'll go up a lot for the eur/usd.
Market Makers have historically used stop runs to fill opposite orders from the ones they're having so they can get good liquidity.
Major financial institutions can't just launch heavy trades in the market, since the sheer quantity of their trades alone would move the market, and both retail traders & at worst governments might react. So they often drive prices to a certain point, let retails believe there's a new ongoing trend, and then just keep trading in the opposite direction and get their orders filled without shocking the market.
In this case, they're probably selling the eur/usd to prepare for a moment up. I don't trust this drop. Not unless we get some answers.
Correct answer: We don't know. This big of a drop without a reason...if we don't get a news alert explaining it, then it's a stop run, which means that there's also a good chance we'll go up a lot for the eur/usd.
Market Makers have historically used stop runs to fill opposite orders from the ones they're having so they can get good liquidity.
Major financial institutions can't just launch heavy trades in the market, since the sheer quantity of their trades alone would move the market, and both retail traders & at worst governments might react....
Many major national banks are on holiday. this creates tighter ranges and higher volatility (i.e. a lot of moving back and forth in a tighter range).
If the Market Makers are doing a stop run, there's no national institution to prevent a price shock. That's why.
I still don't see any news justifying the fall of major currencies (gbp, eur, etc.) against the USD right now, so I'm leaning towards looking this as a stop run by financial institutions. If we do get a reason, then my analysis is null and void.
Many major national banks are on holiday. this creates tighter ranges and higher volatility (i.e. a lot of moving back and forth in a tighter range).
If the Market Makers are doing a stop run, there's no national institution to prevent a price shock. That's why.
I still don't see any news justifying the fall of major currencies (gbp, eur, etc.) against the USD right now, so I'm leaning towards looking this as a stop run by financial institutions. If we do get a reason, then my analysis is null and void.
morning looking to break over the tl if not look back to 4868 Elbert3 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8187624#post8187624
GBP/USD exactly retraced to 4868
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.
Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio is just not worth it, and the hourly trend is uncertain.
Going long eur/usd is a slightly better option, but again, not recommended for people who over leverage since we still don't know what caused the drop. Profitable, but risky. Your choice.
I personally am longing the gbp/usd after the drop, but I make sure I can withstand test of lower areas like 1.48400. And I'm currently watching the price action right now, so I may just leave the market early.
If you're relatively new, and aren't confident (i.e. you don't even have a good gut-feeling to make that specific trade), then do nothing.
Standing on the sidelines IS a position. Don't let anyone tell you have you HAVE to buy or sell right now. It's always your choice and risk management.
For eur/usd, watch 1.09500 +/- 10 pips. That's the key area for a potential trend confirmation
For gbp/usd, watch 1.4900 +/- 10 pips. Like the area for the eur/usd ,these are will be the main point of contention to confirm whether we'll resume upwards momentum or drop further at least for a while.
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.
Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
Ignored
THis trend is retesting the monthly low. So EU is falling more till 1.07xx
THis trend is retesting the monthly low. So EU is falling more till 1.07xx
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Not necessarily. Last few weeks are part of the expected heavy correction on the daily/weekly chart. Quite frankly, if the correction is still ongoing, hitting 1.1100+ isn't out of the question and is in fact expected for the upside.
If the downside has resumed, then we would indeed first test the monthly lows of 2015.
HOWEVER, we've been given no clear reason for this drop despite not having been facing a sharp rejection from any of the daily/weekly support/resistance, and there's also no news spike to justify such a massive movement when most European banks are on holiday.
I'm not saying you're wrong; for all I know we may even just fall down to the yearly low. However, what I am saying is that your statements currently do not have any substantial analysis behind it, other than that "this trend is retesting the monthly low".
The problem is, DO we have to test the monthly low? Why not just fall down to the next few fibonacci supports, and bounce back up without hitting 1.07xx? That possible scenario (as well as a dozen others) is why I'm hesitant to adopt your viewpoint.
Just watch the price action and be on the lookout for retracement S/R.
In longer terms as the months and year passes by, I DO expect eur/usd to make new lows. But right now? It may be a while before we retest 1.0700 and 1.05000
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.
Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
Ignored
Thanks for your advices. One question. Why do you think this stop run should trigger a further up moving for eur/usd? Would you go long on eur/usd If it breaks up over 1.0960?
Joined Jan 2014
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Status: candlesticks talks to me
|74 Comments
Hey guys... here is not any clear signals to long or short at the moment. Rejection of heavy level 1.102ish that's all it is what caused this drop. Simple. Later on we will see a signal. If talk now of possibilities of direction is useless. Wait a signal than talk. Stop confusing newbies who reading all this.
Hey guys... here is not any clear signals to long or short at the moment. Rejection of heavy level 1.102ish that's all it is what caused this drop. Simple. Later on we will see a signal. If talk now of possibilities of direction is useless. Wait a signal than talk. Stop confusing newbies who reading all this.
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Refer to my quote below; that should clarify my position. I've said it many times before: We don't know the trend right now, so we should just watch key support/resistance (S/R) and the price reaction from there.
Refer to my quote below; that should clarify my position. I've said it many times before: We don't know the trend right now, so we should just watch key support/resistance (S/R) and the price reaction from there.
To trade the FX market you have to realize that the market is speculative more than reactionary. Most banks institutions etc are looking at the big picture and speculating where rates will go in the future. A countries currency strength reflects the strength of that countries economy. If an economy is perceived to be doing well it creates an environment where rates may go up there by increasing the chance for a higher yield and better return on your investments.
Currently investors are speculating that the US is on a path to raise interest rates. Speculators use that data to form fundamental trends, they then invest based on those trends. The major trend in the US dollar is still bullish, based on fundamentals.
Data on Friday may have changed that outlook short term but the overall trend has not changed that much. So in most cases larger players might have scalped some profit liquidated longs from a very thin market after a failed break of resistance in the Euro above 1.10.
You also cannot discount the large amount of retail traders that trade this market its larger then you think. When the herd gets nervous they stampede. A long would have been counter trend and emotions are never as solid counter trend as they are with the trend.
So overall why it dropped is anybody's guess even my reasoning. Trade smart and logically and one might make a profit. Don't look for reasons for a loss move on to the next trade.
Reason is it hit the daily 50 ema. Buys were closed, shorts orders were initiated.
Look at the daily candle 18/03/15. It puts this tiny little drop into perspective, now go to bed! gawd!!
There is selling pressure at 1.1 a,d it'shaving a hard time staying above it. Every time Euro pops up a bit people seem to be forgetting ECB is doing QE and that there will be major up turn at any second...
"The dollar rebound against the currency pair towards the end of the New York trading session as thin trading volume. Investors revise its assessment of the signals of slowing US economy as a temporary phenomenon..." I read this from monexnews...LOL
given that 97% of traders fail at this game and your odds are better at a casino, why not play black jack all day? Who knows, you might even learn how to card count!
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.
Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
Ignored
Thanks for your info. Much appreciated.
Would be interesting to know if the pace of Greeks withdrawing their money from Greek banks has accelerated, showing a sign of a Greekexit. That could have caused a drop.
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Joined Jan 2015
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Status: Critical Source
|1018 Comments|
Online Now
What is wrong with you guys? Why so confused? Is it not normal that when MM move the market they definitely move it again in the opposite direction? Do you really think that EU hitting more than 100pips in an M5 chart, that it will continue to rise?
These guys sold last (on Good) Friday so what is wrong in them buying back (on Easter) Monday while some people are off the market?
Not necessarily. Last few weeks are part of the expected heavy correction on the daily/weekly chart. Quite frankly, if the correction is still ongoing, hitting 1.1100+ isn't out of the question and is in fact expected for the upside.
If the downside has resumed, then we would indeed first test the monthly lows of 2015.
HOWEVER, we've been given no clear reason for this drop despite not having been facing a sharp rejection from any of the daily/weekly support/resistance, and there's also no news spike to justify such a massive movement when...
Ignored
Ok, I hope you have seen the substantial evidence you were asking for now. Maybe you should wait till your account is wiped because you dont want to follow the candid word of wisdom.
Ok, I hope you have seen the substantial evidence you were asking for now. Maybe you should wait till your account is wiped because you dont want to follow the candid word of wisdom.
Ignored
I didn't even bother trading the eur/usd; what are you talking about? I longed the gbp/usd on 1.48780 and profited at 1.49070.
I made a profit, not a loss. In fact, I specifically stated in my posts that I was longing the gbp/usd, and did not feel comfortable trading eur/usd.
Going long eur/usd is a slightly better option, but again, not recommended for people who over leverage since we still don't know what caused the drop. Profitable, but risky. Your choice.
I personally am longing the gbp/usd after the drop, but I make sure I can withstand test of lower areas like 1.48400. And I'm currently watching the price action right now, so I may just leave the market early.
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You didn't even bother to properly read my posts before replying to them, did you?
By all means, please tell me where in any of my posts did I encourage people to trade the eur/usd.
I believe my exact words of advice was something on the lines of "staying on the sidelines is a position".
It's curious what a stark contrast this reply is from your initial vocal and eagerness to criticize me. It still nonetheless reveals that you're just another one of those common Forexfactory traders who only post about the direction they're trading in and refuse to accept any alternatives, and bash anyone who dares to defy your magnanimous words of wisdom.
I'd very much prefer to not have pointless arguments like these again with you.
Thank you Vermillion. I read -and appreciated the clarity of- your posts: informative and good advice for everyone. I actually *read* them, and there is no doubt about your statements.
Eur gonna rally sideway 1.0840 might hit new MH but its trending downwards,any ideas?
Ignored
Here's my two bits:
The rejection of 1.09500 (the key eur/usd area I mentioned before) area yesterday meant that we're going to see further downtrend, which we did. Given that we rejected 1.10xxx area twice, we've now opened the possibility of testing monthly and yearly lows (2015) for the eur/usd in the near term. After that, it'll depend on the price reaction to previous support/resistances and fibonacci points.
We may see further drop down for the eur/usd before FOMC minutes comes out tomorrow(1.07900, 1.07500 +/- 20 pips, 1.06800 are the three primary supports that are next in line if the eur/usd continues to fall). Upside should be largely limited to around 1.08700~1.0900 before the FOMC minutes, but I can't be certain since current trend still seems to be heading lower.
Once the news is out, there's a good chance we'll have another immediate spike (usually upwards for the eur/usd). The question, however, is whether this is a temporary spike that will resume retesting previous supports, or the prelude to another bounce back up.
Once the news is out, it'll come down to what the FOMC says, and the market reaction to key areas in the eur/usd.
Once the news is out, there's a good chance we'll have another immediate spike (usually upwards for the eur/usd). The question, however, is whether this is a temporary spike that will resume retesting previous supports, or the prelude to another bounce back up.
Once the news is out, it'll come down to what the FOMC says, and the market reaction to key areas in the eur/usd.
Thanks. I try to make my posts informative. Still trying to get the hang of trading major fundamental news, but I still can't hold a candle to people people like Sisse.
Still, my analysis is in line with the more veteran posters on FF, so it should be worth something.
Of course, everything will boil down to exactly what the FOMC minutes states, which no one knows for sure (unless you work there)
It's curious what a stark contrast this reply is from your initial vocal and eagerness to criticize me. It still nonetheless reveals that you're just another one of those common Forexfactory traders who only post about the direction they're trading in and refuse to accept any alternatives, and bash anyone who dares to defy your magnanimous words of wisdom.
I'd very much prefer to not have pointless arguments like these again with you.
Welcome to my ignore list.
Ignored
By now you wont have a doubt of my statement that we were heading to 1.07 which has by far surpass that level with 1.05 reached. So what do you have to brag about?