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  • Big stop run in EURUSD down to 1.0925

What happened?
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
magic
Mm playing
trade safe
I sold all me eurusd longs

Mwahahaha
hope for the best and expect the worst.
what was that for?
hoza
I gave this freebie when it was 1.10xx asking traders to short it down to 1.07xx. LOl. Nice $$$.
Its the turn. If people fancy buying Eur at these levels its their risk
Woohoo! 18 minutes from in to out! What a ride! I love this!
that is why SL important
hoza
just FX market on Bank Holiday
Well that was nice and easy, got my sell order trigged at 1.096, and by the time I looked at my chart it +40 pips. rebounded before I could exit, so I scored 30 pips literally in all of about a minute. Crazy!
Woo im up 100 pips

I bet it was ze germans or maybe ze russians
hope for the best and expect the worst.
Aussie down too!
Grexit is coming.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
Hide your kids, hide your wife....lol
300 pips bull run on a 4 day weekend, what did you expect ?
market will resume trading at 1.0700 when London and Frankfurt get back to work tomorrow
Correct answer: We don't know. This big of a drop without a reason...if we don't get a news alert explaining it, then it's a stop run, which means that there's also a good chance we'll go up a lot for the eur/usd.
Market Makers have historically used stop runs to fill opposite orders from the ones they're having so they can get good liquidity.

Major financial institutions can't just launch heavy trades in the market, since the sheer quantity of their trades alone would move the market, and both retail traders & at worst governments might react. So they often drive prices to a certain point, let retails believe there's a new ongoing trend, and then just keep trading in the opposite direction and get their orders filled without shocking the market.
In this case, they're probably selling the eur/usd to prepare for a moment up. I don't trust this drop. Not unless we get some answers.

Edit: message compressed to save space.
Quoting PA is King
Hide your kids, hide your wife....lol
Im going to find your wife and celebrate
hope for the best and expect the worst.
Quoting hoza
what was that for?
stop hunt
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Quoting Dr.Zain
stop hunt
yes for sure - on every single USA par ??
LOL
High Impact BREAKING NEWS???
This report has nothing in it, but one word "breaking"

What's the reason behind of this volatility?
LOL
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
Quoting Vermillion
Correct answer: We don't know. This big of a drop without a reason...if we don't get a news alert explaining it, then it's a stop run, which means that there's also a good chance we'll go up a lot for the eur/usd.

Market Makers have historically used stop runs to fill opposite orders from the ones they're having so they can get good liquidity.

Major financial institutions can't just launch heavy trades in the market, since the sheer quantity of their trades alone would move the market, and both retail traders & at worst governments might react....
+1
what is this? why dollar go up?? (((
we need to be careful all the time.. if its positive for you today... think of the day it wont.. unplanned, unseen, unexpected events.. USDOLLARS!!!
We just have to keep watching to know whats gonna happen next....................
Quoting vann
what is this? why dollar go up?? (((
Read vermillion
Quoting vann
what is this? why dollar go up?? (((
Many major national banks are on holiday. this creates tighter ranges and higher volatility (i.e. a lot of moving back and forth in a tighter range).

If the Market Makers are doing a stop run, there's no national institution to prevent a price shock. That's why.

I still don't see any news justifying the fall of major currencies (gbp, eur, etc.) against the USD right now, so I'm leaning towards looking this as a stop run by financial institutions. If we do get a reason, then my analysis is null and void.
Quoting Vermillion
Many major national banks are on holiday. this creates tighter ranges and higher volatility (i.e. a lot of moving back and forth in a tighter range).

If the Market Makers are doing a stop run, there's no national institution to prevent a price shock. That's why.

I still don't see any news justifying the fall of major currencies (gbp, eur, etc.) against the USD right now, so I'm leaning towards looking this as a stop run by financial institutions. If we do get a reason, then my analysis is null and void.
and your advice is?
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
morning looking to break over the tl if not look back to 4868 Elbert3 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8187624#post8187624
GBP/USD exactly retraced to 4868
Someone bored to death and hit the Sell Euro button while sleeping.
Quoting cukong
Someone bored to death and hit the Sell Euro button while sleeping.
ngguyu ngakak aku....
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
Quoting senanata
and your advice is?
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.

Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio is just not worth it, and the hourly trend is uncertain.

Going long eur/usd is a slightly better option, but again, not recommended for people who over leverage since we still don't know what caused the drop. Profitable, but risky. Your choice.

I personally am longing the gbp/usd after the drop, but I make sure I can withstand test of lower areas like 1.48400. And I'm currently watching the price action right now, so I may just leave the market early.

If you're relatively new, and aren't confident (i.e. you don't even have a good gut-feeling to make that specific trade), then do nothing.

Standing on the sidelines IS a position. Don't let anyone tell you have you HAVE to buy or sell right now. It's always your choice and risk management.

For eur/usd, watch 1.09500 +/- 10 pips. That's the key area for a potential trend confirmation

For gbp/usd, watch 1.4900 +/- 10 pips. Like the area for the eur/usd ,these are will be the main point of contention to confirm whether we'll resume upwards momentum or drop further at least for a while.
Simple levels rejection. .. lol... are you traders at all ????
Quoting Vermillion
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.

Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
THis trend is retesting the monthly low. So EU is falling more till 1.07xx
Quoting palinco
THis trend is retesting the monthly low. So EU is falling more till 1.07xx
Not necessarily. Last few weeks are part of the expected heavy correction on the daily/weekly chart. Quite frankly, if the correction is still ongoing, hitting 1.1100+ isn't out of the question and is in fact expected for the upside.

If the downside has resumed, then we would indeed first test the monthly lows of 2015.

HOWEVER, we've been given no clear reason for this drop despite not having been facing a sharp rejection from any of the daily/weekly support/resistance, and there's also no news spike to justify such a massive movement when most European banks are on holiday.

I'm not saying you're wrong; for all I know we may even just fall down to the yearly low. However, what I am saying is that your statements currently do not have any substantial analysis behind it, other than that "this trend is retesting the monthly low".

The problem is, DO we have to test the monthly low? Why not just fall down to the next few fibonacci supports, and bounce back up without hitting 1.07xx? That possible scenario (as well as a dozen others) is why I'm hesitant to adopt your viewpoint.

Just watch the price action and be on the lookout for retracement S/R.

In longer terms as the months and year passes by, I DO expect eur/usd to make new lows. But right now? It may be a while before we retest 1.0700 and 1.05000
Quoting Vermillion
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.

Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
Thanks for your advices. One question. Why do you think this stop run should trigger a further up moving for eur/usd? Would you go long on eur/usd If it breaks up over 1.0960?
Hey guys... here is not any clear signals to long or short at the moment. Rejection of heavy level 1.102ish that's all it is what caused this drop. Simple. Later on we will see a signal. If talk now of possibilities of direction is useless. Wait a signal than talk. Stop confusing newbies who reading all this.
Here is a key reason: consensus is an expected correction.
The game taught me the game.
Quoting Lamira
Hey guys... here is not any clear signals to long or short at the moment. Rejection of heavy level 1.102ish that's all it is what caused this drop. Simple. Later on we will see a signal. If talk now of possibilities of direction is useless. Wait a signal than talk. Stop confusing newbies who reading all this.
Refer to my quote below; that should clarify my position. I've said it many times before: We don't know the trend right now, so we should just watch key support/resistance (S/R) and the price reaction from there.

Quoting Vermillion
Just watch the price action and be on the lookout for retracement S/R.
Quoting Vermillion
Refer to my quote below; that should clarify my position. I've said it many times before: We don't know the trend right now, so we should just watch key support/resistance (S/R) and the price reaction from there.
yes , Sir green pips to all of us
hahaha very good

Quoting cukong
Someone bored to death and hit the Sell Euro button while sleeping.
To trade the FX market you have to realize that the market is speculative more than reactionary. Most banks institutions etc are looking at the big picture and speculating where rates will go in the future. A countries currency strength reflects the strength of that countries economy. If an economy is perceived to be doing well it creates an environment where rates may go up there by increasing the chance for a higher yield and better return on your investments.

Currently investors are speculating that the US is on a path to raise interest rates. Speculators use that data to form fundamental trends, they then invest based on those trends. The major trend in the US dollar is still bullish, based on fundamentals.

Data on Friday may have changed that outlook short term but the overall trend has not changed that much. So in most cases larger players might have scalped some profit liquidated longs from a very thin market after a failed break of resistance in the Euro above 1.10.

You also cannot discount the large amount of retail traders that trade this market its larger then you think. When the herd gets nervous they stampede. A long would have been counter trend and emotions are never as solid counter trend as they are with the trend.

So overall why it dropped is anybody's guess even my reasoning. Trade smart and logically and one might make a profit. Don't look for reasons for a loss move on to the next trade.
Reason is it hit the daily 50 ema. Buys were closed, shorts orders were initiated.
Look at the daily candle 18/03/15. It puts this tiny little drop into perspective, now go to bed! gawd!!
"Breaking News"??? Hell, the news is already "broken" before the headline was posted!!!

More background noise as we chop around through this USD consolidation.
Quoting Lamira
Simple levels rejection. .. lol... are you traders at all ????
Its FF..... are you surprised?
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Breaking news this.

Profit taking on automated trades over the break, now back into office and heading for parity.
Quoting Grimace
Its FF..... are you surprised?
lol.... you just woke me up , thanks
There is selling pressure at 1.1 a,d it'shaving a hard time staying above it. Every time Euro pops up a bit people seem to be forgetting ECB is doing QE and that there will be major up turn at any second...
Fuck
what the????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

i didn't expect this situation.. -.-
very difficult to trade anything thesedays...
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
"The dollar rebound against the currency pair towards the end of the New York trading session as thin trading volume. Investors revise its assessment of the signals of slowing US economy as a temporary phenomenon..." I read this from monexnews...LOL

"investors"...haha
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
given that 97% of traders fail at this game and your odds are better at a casino, why not play black jack all day? Who knows, you might even learn how to card count!
this is normal...
Quoting Vermillion
My advice for newcomers is to just do nothing. The thing about massive movements in markets is that when the dust settles off, there's always little bits and pieces it leaves behind via chart movement, so you might be able to predict the next coming ongoing intraday trend for the next few hours.

Going short eur/usd is ludicrous since much of the drop is priced in. We MAY have another drop, but given the lack of reason given for the drop, and that the eur/usd scraped around 1.09000 (a key fib support), we may never get that. Risk to Reward ratio...
Thanks for your info. Much appreciated.
Would be interesting to know if the pace of Greeks withdrawing their money from Greek banks has accelerated, showing a sign of a Greekexit. That could have caused a drop.
Yah that was very big stop fag forexlive
FF marked it as high impact category
You cannot learn better without losing
Quoting mrbandwidth
Grexit is coming.
US-EZ still using that rotten weapon.
You cannot learn better without losing
What is wrong with you guys? Why so confused? Is it not normal that when MM move the market they definitely move it again in the opposite direction? Do you really think that EU hitting more than 100pips in an M5 chart, that it will continue to rise?

These guys sold last (on Good) Friday so what is wrong in them buying back (on Easter) Monday while some people are off the market?

Get real people!!
i wonder what's the commotion...

It's a third top on 10-min chart...and after more than 2 hours of trying to break 1.1050 unsuccessfully, buyers turn sellers...
Quoting Vermillion
Not necessarily. Last few weeks are part of the expected heavy correction on the daily/weekly chart. Quite frankly, if the correction is still ongoing, hitting 1.1100+ isn't out of the question and is in fact expected for the upside.

If the downside has resumed, then we would indeed first test the monthly lows of 2015.

HOWEVER, we've been given no clear reason for this drop despite not having been facing a sharp rejection from any of the daily/weekly support/resistance, and there's also no news spike to justify such a massive movement when...
Ok, I hope you have seen the substantial evidence you were asking for now. Maybe you should wait till your account is wiped because you dont want to follow the candid word of wisdom.
Quoting palinco
Ok, I hope you have seen the substantial evidence you were asking for now. Maybe you should wait till your account is wiped because you dont want to follow the candid word of wisdom.
I didn't even bother trading the eur/usd; what are you talking about? I longed the gbp/usd on 1.48780 and profited at 1.49070.

I made a profit, not a loss. In fact, I specifically stated in my posts that I was longing the gbp/usd, and did not feel comfortable trading eur/usd.

Quoting Vermillion
Going long eur/usd is a slightly better option, but again, not recommended for people who over leverage since we still don't know what caused the drop. Profitable, but risky. Your choice.

I personally am longing the gbp/usd after the drop, but I make sure I can withstand test of lower areas like 1.48400. And I'm currently watching the price action right now, so I may just leave the market early.
You didn't even bother to properly read my posts before replying to them, did you?

By all means, please tell me where in any of my posts did I encourage people to trade the eur/usd.

I believe my exact words of advice was something on the lines of "staying on the sidelines is a position".
Ok, then. Best of luck guy.
Quoting palinco
Ok, then. Best of luck guy.
It's curious what a stark contrast this reply is from your initial vocal and eagerness to criticize me. It still nonetheless reveals that you're just another one of those common Forexfactory traders who only post about the direction they're trading in and refuse to accept any alternatives, and bash anyone who dares to defy your magnanimous words of wisdom.

I'd very much prefer to not have pointless arguments like these again with you.

Welcome to my ignore list.
Thank you Vermillion. I read -and appreciated the clarity of- your posts: informative and good advice for everyone. I actually *read* them, and there is no doubt about your statements.
Eur gonna rally sideway 1.0840 might hit new MH but its trending downwards,any ideas?
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
Quoting rafat habeb
Eur gonna rally sideway 1.0840 might hit new MH but its trending downwards,any ideas?
Here's my two bits:

The rejection of 1.09500 (the key eur/usd area I mentioned before) area yesterday meant that we're going to see further downtrend, which we did. Given that we rejected 1.10xxx area twice, we've now opened the possibility of testing monthly and yearly lows (2015) for the eur/usd in the near term. After that, it'll depend on the price reaction to previous support/resistances and fibonacci points.

We may see further drop down for the eur/usd before FOMC minutes comes out tomorrow(1.07900, 1.07500 +/- 20 pips, 1.06800 are the three primary supports that are next in line if the eur/usd continues to fall). Upside should be largely limited to around 1.08700~1.0900 before the FOMC minutes, but I can't be certain since current trend still seems to be heading lower.

Once the news is out, there's a good chance we'll have another immediate spike (usually upwards for the eur/usd). The question, however, is whether this is a temporary spike that will resume retesting previous supports, or the prelude to another bounce back up.

Once the news is out, it'll come down to what the FOMC says, and the market reaction to key areas in the eur/usd.
Mention the word stop run and you get everyone coming out of the wood work to call manipulation.

The move has now continued 100 pips lower than 1.0925... can anyone tell me when the stop run will be over?
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Fundamentals do matter folks !!

1. Strong USD
2. Greek Issue
3. EU Quantitative Easing

At this rate, why should I be buying Euros?
This Rally was a good shorting opportunity.
Quoting verv
Mention the word stop run and you get everyone coming out of the wood work to call manipulation.

The move has now continued 100 pips lower than 1.0925... can anyone tell me when the stop run will be over?
ty mate i apricate your view good luck for us both then lets make som wining pips
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
Quoting Vermillion
Here's my two bits:


Once the news is out, there's a good chance we'll have another immediate spike (usually upwards for the eur/usd). The question, however, is whether this is a temporary spike that will resume retesting previous supports, or the prelude to another bounce back up.

Once the news is out, it'll come down to what the FOMC says, and the market reaction to key areas in the eur/usd.
Your two bits are easily worth four
Quoting pippiphooray
Your two bits are easily worth four
Thanks. I try to make my posts informative. Still trying to get the hang of trading major fundamental news, but I still can't hold a candle to people people like Sisse.

Still, my analysis is in line with the more veteran posters on FF, so it should be worth something.

Of course, everything will boil down to exactly what the FOMC minutes states, which no one knows for sure (unless you work there)
Quoting Vermillion
It's curious what a stark contrast this reply is from your initial vocal and eagerness to criticize me. It still nonetheless reveals that you're just another one of those common Forexfactory traders who only post about the direction they're trading in and refuse to accept any alternatives, and bash anyone who dares to defy your magnanimous words of wisdom.

I'd very much prefer to not have pointless arguments like these again with you.

Welcome to my ignore list.
By now you wont have a doubt of my statement that we were heading to 1.07 which has by far surpass that level with 1.05 reached. So what do you have to brag about?
Quoting Guest
Fundamentals do matter folks !!

1. Strong USD
2. Greek Issue
3. EU Quantitative Easing

At this rate, why should I be buying Euros?
This Rally was a good shorting opportunity.
we need many traders to buy euro actually. so that they loss their money and we will gain the money from there. let them buy and bye bye
#shortcoveringrally
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Apr 6, 2015 3:09pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: High Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 74  /  Views: 21,716