RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

From rba.gov.au

At its meeting today, the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0 per cent, effective 5 December 2012. Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time. Risks to the outlook are still seen to be on the downside, largely as a result of the situation in Europe, though the uncertainty over the course of US fiscal policy is also weighing on sentiment at present. Recent data suggest that the US economy is recording moderate growth and that growth in China has stabilised. Around Asia generally, growth has been dampened by the more moderate Chinese expansion and the weakness in ... (full story)

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Dec 3, 2012 11:49pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

When your asking "why" something in a market happened, you really should be asking.. "why am I trading... I dont know what I am doing"

Ignored

I would disagree with that, as asking why is a natural part of learning, however the more relevant question is: "Why do I care or worry about it when I can't change it?" So just move on to the next good setup and trade.

Deano9999

Dec 3, 2012 11:53pm

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Quoting safdarhashmi

Disliked

can any body share his views about gold for today? should we buy dold at 1708

Ignored

My trading system has a signal to sell gold at 1712, target 1699. 1694 is the fib level so a break and daily close below this level means go short with a target around 1640, otherwise if not it should bounce and go long then around 1700, target resistance around 1732. Good trading

Deano9999

Dec 4, 2012 12:30am

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Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Looking at those areas too - clearly the decision area now.

But tell me about the truth in the allegations I hear which is that brokers can doctor the feed? Cause spikes at will and hunt stops? The truth of it not the rumor actual adverse experience of it.

Whatever it is you know about it. I would trust your take. Cheers

Ignored

No truth that they can "doctor" the feed, but as there is no central FX market as such they can "adjust" the prices by a few pips. For this reason I trade on MT4 alongside e-signal, which is an independent consolidated charting package, and the most variance between them I've seen is 4-5 pips on some pairs but mostly 1-2 pips only. I have one of the better brokers I think.

There is lots of truth in "stop hunts", both triggers and stop losses. The major banks have dedicated people in their broking operations whose sole purpose in life is to collect money from retail traders with poor / weak and obvious positions by trading against them - hence the short squeezes often seen. These guys get paid big bonuses based on success rates, but its not a talked about topic as you can imagine.

So my rules of engagement in the battle are:
1) Never place an order or stop loss in front of a support or resistance line, always the other side by at least 5-10 pips;
2) Never place an order or stop loss below a round number for shorts or above for longs - at least 10 pips either side
3) NEVER place an order or stop loss on a round number (e.g. 1.2, 1.35 etc).
4) Always make it a price to the 5th dec place. For example if your target stop loss is 1.3010 for a short, make your trading stop loss 1.30113. That 5th decimal place has saved me many a time! lol

The search algorthims the banks use probably look for round numbers and use a risk reward calc for how far they can move the price and take losses on their own account to collect profits from the retail traders with weak positions - no prizes for guessing who wins!

Gold - should be snapping back now it reached my target at 1699 according to my system but just drifting - this looks a little suspect but the London price action will tell.

Good trading

Deano9999

Dec 4, 2012 12:43am

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Quoting LarryM@x

Disliked

Hi All,
rates are now at 3%. Do you think really, RBA will go further ?
If not ... just buy.

Regards

Ignored

Barring a disaster, RBA won't cut rates again before Q2 2013. These are historically low rates for Australia.

safdarhashmi

Dec 3, 2012 10:32pm

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yes its sell for me and already shorted now wait and see what market do with us

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Can someone tell me how the price was already factored in? Does not make any fucking sense at all. It's forex and nothing gets factored in, the price is the price . A rate cut is bad news for AUD. Simple as that, and price should act accordingly. That's the 4th cut since Feb 2012 so fundamentally not good for AUD, and technically on daily is a downtrend. It should be a sell in everyone books.

Ignored

hoda

Dec 3, 2012 11:30pm

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Gold market seems to have many surprises in the last week.
When it seemed to be a confirmed uptrend, it suddenly dropped back to the south and now gold is testing its Main Uptrend Support.

pt49

Dec 3, 2012 9:46pm

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why the hell sell when there was no rate cut, a cut was expected, so you buy on the result.

I made a nice 30 pips ... 8.2% increase on balance . Thankyou.

pt49

Dec 3, 2012 9:50pm

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mdrive... you are correct, I guess I just proved that you don't need to know a dam thing to make money in Forex.

Stupid me!

Dec 3, 2012 9:50pm

Now I'm going short.

Dec 3, 2012 9:34pm

Its Positve for AUD,so its go up !

pippiphooray

Dec 3, 2012 9:57pm

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Everyone was expecting the 50bps, and did not get. The 50 was priced in. Now, the RBA has more room to manuver later on. I am a seller aganst this pop. I will check technicals first, but I am not a buyer of AUD/USD right here.

pippiphooray

Dec 3, 2012 10:11pm

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Quoting yohan777

Disliked

short start tommorow, not today

Ignored

Yohan, I have seen your posts prior, you are always astute in your comments. I agree that there might be optimal pricing to be had later on. I will be limping in soon though. Cheers!!!

erod84

Dec 3, 2012 10:06pm

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i don't trade aud/usd, however daily and weekly are bullish.

k3nshinz3139

Dec 3, 2012 9:33pm

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Hope gold keep up !! Aud affect Gold ?

k3nshinz3139

Dec 3, 2012 9:40pm

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Quoting Azzmirul

Disliked

one more chance hope today gold will go up...

Ignored

Hope so.. Long position 1718..

Dec 3, 2012 9:45pm

USD dropping is it ?

Dec 3, 2012 9:58pm

The statement is pretty dovish, they even mentioned concerns over exchange rates, so the tone is generally bearish. Wait and then short when the smoke clears.

k3nshinz3139

Dec 3, 2012 11:58pm

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Wow.. So good.. What news cause the gold drop so much ?

anilamil

Dec 4, 2012 12:02am

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Quoting safdarhashmi

Disliked

can any body share his views about gold for today? should we buy dold at 1708

Ignored

buy at 1700 , that is one of buy area... the second buy area is 168x

Dec 3, 2012 9:45pm

My SL was hit.

Dec 4, 2012 5:14am

its time to sell the aud/usd pair

TraderUSA

Dec 3, 2012 9:40pm

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Patience! Now get in and short AUD. I explain the jump later.

Dec 3, 2012 9:31pm

aaahhhh

Dec 3, 2012 9:33pm

general talk was a .5 cut RBA cut to expected .25 aud rallies off a smaller cut.

scfx

Dec 3, 2012 9:41pm

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news traders when will u learn... stops are just for fishing in these events.

ilcgs

Dec 3, 2012 9:35pm

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Market expect more than 25 bsp?

Dec 3, 2012 9:33pm

sell aud

Dec 3, 2012 9:36pm

me to sold at 1.422 and 1.435

Quoting Azzmirul

Disliked

agreed...why...sigh..short 1.0408

Ignored

mdrive

Dec 3, 2012 9:48pm

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.25 rate cut, you are not paying attention

safdarhashmi

Dec 3, 2012 10:43pm

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can any body share his views about gold for today? should we buy dold at 1708

cppolybd

Dec 3, 2012 10:10pm

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Ha ha it reminds me the last month's BOJ monetary policy. At first jpycross dropped almost 100 pips then it increased. Maybe in London session audusd will fall below 1.04 mark...

cppolybd

Dec 4, 2012 12:02am

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Wow last two weeks gold just doing ultra stop loss haunt....

cppolybd

Dec 4, 2012 12:04am

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Usd down jpy down. gold down but euro up aud up this strange market. Luckily This December I just stay out from market and watching the fun...

Dec 3, 2012 9:40pm

WTF!!!!!!!!

Dec 3, 2012 9:44pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

A rate cut is a rate cut, it influences the inflation big, no matter what was priced in or not...AUD will go down big this week, but might be manipulated on the way, like now.

Ignored

i agreed with you

Qiryani

Dec 3, 2012 11:40pm

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Quoting Guest

Disliked

what do you mean there was no rate cut, it was cut by .25%

Ignored

.25 expected. unless it is .50. do u get it

Dec 3, 2012 9:43pm

go up like crazy xD

Dec 3, 2012 9:51pm

Quoting pt49

Disliked

why the hell sell when there was no rate cut, a cut was expected, so you buy on the result.

I made a nice 30 pips ... 8.2% increase on balance . Thankyou.

Ignored

No rate cut? 20 min ago the official rate was 3.25.....now is 3.00....how do u call this? They increased the rate?

arenoosh

Dec 3, 2012 10:00pm

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Quoting pippiphooray

Disliked

Everyone was expecting the 50bps, and did not get. The 50 was priced in. Now, the RBA has more room to manuver later on. I am a seller aganst this pop. I will check technicals first, but I am not a buyer of AUD/USD right here.

Ignored

everyone was expecting 50 bps but not for today: 25 bps today and 25 bps in february...

yohan777

Dec 3, 2012 10:07pm

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short start tommorow, not today

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 12:04am

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Quoting Deano9999

Disliked

My trading system has a signal to sell gold at 1712, target 1699. 1694 is the fib level so a break and daily close below this level means go short with a target around 1640, otherwise if not it should bounce and go long then around 1700, target resistance around 1732. Good trading

Ignored

Looking at those areas too - clearly the decision area now.

But tell me about the truth in the allegations I hear which is that brokers can doctor the feed? Cause spikes at will and hunt stops? The truth of it not the rumor actual adverse experience of it.

Whatever it is you know about it. I would trust your take. Cheers

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 12:09am

Permalink

Quoting cppolybd

Disliked

Usd down jpy down. gold down but euro up aud up this strange market. Luckily This December I just stay out from market and watching the fun...

Ignored

Scary is it not - like being lost in a jungle of moving bars and each bar a mind of its own.

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 12:45am

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Quoting Deano9999

Disliked

Gold - should be snapping back now it reached my target at 1699 according to my system but just drifting - this looks a little suspect but the London price action will tell.

Good trading

Ignored

Yea thanks for reminding me - that is where we know what the play really is. You are a very smart trader watching out for known periods of volatility. Sure man good trading.

Spreadbetter

Dec 4, 2012 2:25am

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The major banks and institutional traders don't give a thought to taking money of folk picking up pennies in front of their steam rollers. Your statement is wrong. You're confusing where IBs and hedge funds hunt-Resistance, Support, 200 ma, psyche numbers etc with where retail 'just happens to be'.

Quoting Deano9999

Disliked

There is lots of truth in "stop hunts", both triggers and stop losses. The major banks have dedicated people in their broking operations whose sole purpose in life is to collect money from retail traders with poor / weak and obvious positions by trading against them - hence the short squeezes often seen. These guys get paid big bonuses based on success rates, but its not a talked about topic as you can imagine.

The search algorthims the banks use probably look for round numbers and use a risk reward calc for how far they can move the price...

Ignored

ognen

Dec 4, 2012 2:41am

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Here why AUD is trending positive:

"The Bank's assessment remains that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years..."

and the data that US indicators offer is mostly negative.

pippiphooray

Dec 3, 2012 10:10pm

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Quoting arenoosh

Disliked

everyone was expecting 50 bps but not for today: 25 bps today and 25 bps in february...

Ignored

yes sir...

Dec 3, 2012 9:31pm

why aud is up..

Dec 3, 2012 9:34pm

Quoting andriyog

Disliked

why?????????
so weird
thats something wrong

Ignored

agreed...why...sigh..short 1.0408

Azzmirul

Dec 3, 2012 9:39pm

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one more chance hope today gold will go up...

Azzmirul

Dec 3, 2012 9:45pm

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Quoting k3nshinz3139

Disliked

Hope so.. Long position 1718..

Ignored

Long 1751 and 1725

Dec 3, 2012 9:36pm

SL got hit! damn!

Dec 3, 2012 9:56pm

Sell at 1.0450-55 tp 1.039060

profit taker

Dec 3, 2012 10:03pm

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prepare to wait price fall around 1.0435/41, then Long aus/usd. tp 1.0450 to 1.0455

profit taker

Dec 3, 2012 10:44pm

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as mentioned earlier, i just Long aus/usd at 1.04367. tp at 1.0449 to 1.0457.

andriyog

Dec 3, 2012 9:31pm

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time to wake up my usd ....lol

andriyog

Dec 3, 2012 9:33pm

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Quoting Azzmirul

Disliked

why aud is up..

Ignored

why?????????
so weird
thats something wrong

staffpro1

Dec 3, 2012 9:31pm

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nice canada is next in line

meysamkh

Dec 3, 2012 9:35pm

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selllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll aud

keerath

Dec 3, 2012 9:41pm

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sell audusd sl 1.0468 tp 1.0265

Xman2013

Dec 3, 2012 9:47pm

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What do you guys about gold? I believe gold will up as RBA cut interest rates means people now will put their money in USD and Metals. Correct?

Trader#56C9

Dec 3, 2012 9:48pm

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Can someone tell me how the price was already factored in? Does not make any fucking sense at all. It's forex and nothing gets factored in, the price is the price . A rate cut is bad news for AUD. Simple as that, and price should act accordingly. That's the 4th cut since Feb 2012 so fundamentally not good for AUD, and technically on daily is a downtrend. It should be a sell in everyone books.

Trader#92F5

Dec 3, 2012 9:54pm

Permalink

Quoting pt49

Disliked

why the hell sell when there was no rate cut, a cut was expected, so you buy on the result.

I made a nice 30 pips ... 8.2% increase on balance . Thankyou.

Ignored

Leveraging 1:30 against the trend? Good luck, you will need it in the future...

Trader#92F5

Dec 3, 2012 9:59pm

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Quoting pippiphooray

Disliked

Everyone was expecting the 50bps, and did not get. The 50 was priced in. Now, the RBA has more room to manuver later on. I am a seller aganst this pop. I will check technicals first, but I am not a buyer of AUD/USD right here.

Ignored

How was it priced in if AUD was flat or long against most majors in the past week?

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 12:13am

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BTW I think where gold is at is a good place for a bounce so are we seeing a bounce?

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 12:15am

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The Euro is not moving much but it is phasing nicely for a further rally up intraday.

Subestian

Dec 4, 2012 12:17am

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to what level will it bounce back?

LarryM@x

Dec 4, 2012 12:41am

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Hi All,
rates are now at 3%. Do you think really, RBA will go further ?
If not ... just buy.

Regards

Loadedgun

Dec 4, 2012 1:44am

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Things are starting to heat up - positions are now clear.

Trader#92F5

Dec 3, 2012 9:33pm

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Quoting Azzmirul

Disliked

why aud is up..

Ignored

stop loss hunting first...

Trader#35B2

Dec 3, 2012 9:36pm

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Quoting Azzmirul

Disliked

why aud is up..

Ignored

When your asking "why" something in a market happened, you really should be asking.. "why am I trading... I dont know what I am doing"

Trader#92F5

Dec 3, 2012 9:37pm

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A rate cut is a rate cut, it influences the inflation big, no matter what was priced in or not...AUD will go down big this week, but might be manipulated on the way, like now.