ECB Monetary Policy Decisions | Forex Factory

  • ECB Monetary Policy Decisions

    From ecb.int

    At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions: The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 25 basis points to 1.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 14 December 2011. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 25 basis points to 1.75%, with effect from 14 December 2011. The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 25 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 14 December 2011. The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions ... (full story)

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turanius
Dec 8, 2011 9:06am
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Who is behind this?

Banks, who else..only they have the amount of capital to move the markets as much as they want in to any direction..and this was a classical trap as I said before it even happened, warning those who has longs

Quoting DragonFire
today's EUR/USD trap is to huge, moved almost 100 pips before falling 150 pips and continues going down...who is behind this? we may see it stabilizes at 1.3345...meaning tomorrow's 250 pips upwards is in cards..but after announcement it may dip 75 pips before the rally...
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DragonFire
Dec 8, 2011 9:13am
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Quoting turanius
Who is behind this?

Banks, who else..only they have the amount of capital to move the markets as much as they want in to any direction..and this was a classical trap as I said before it even happened, warning those who has longs
turanius,

You nailed this one....i really fall into this trap...but I having expecting global stocks to fall to send a message to EU leaders to forge ahead with some sort of agreement.how the stocks and EUR/USD will react tomorrow is in the open...they may made announcement after NY session...if that happens then it is a bad news but they have 48 hours to spin-off some issues before Asian session on Sunday...anyway we shall see what happens tomorrow...THE MOTHER OF ALL EU MEETINGS TO SOLVE DEBT CRISIS IS HAPPENING....
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PipTrapper
Dec 8, 2011 8:43am
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Quoting ssshhhh
someone said that the euro would rise???

really?
It did, until Draghi poured cold water over the SMP and possible loans to IMF
Now we'll have to wait and see what Miss Piggy has to say.
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PipTrapper
Dec 8, 2011 11:35am
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Quoting kibescorp
Looks the idiots crying bull didn't learn anything from November 3, the LAST rate cut.

The euro ALWAYS GOES DOWN IN THE END.

God.
It not that simple. A rate cut in this kind of market is actually a good thing because it gives the market confidence that the ECB is doing something to help. What made the Euro go down was not the rate cut but rather the ECB's denial that they would keep buying sovereign bonds.
Therefore, before you start calling other traders idiots, perhaps you had better brush up on your fundamental analysis skills. I know it's not easy to understand why certain things happen, but hopefully with enough studying, you will eventually get it.
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PipTrapper
Dec 8, 2011 11:36am
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Quoting kibescorp
You'd think people would have learned from LAST time that setting stop orders right before a major news event is incredibly stupid and will only put you in the WRONG trade.
I didn't see any posts on this story claiming that anyone had any buy stops in place before the news. Perhaps I missed it.
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DragonFire
Dec 8, 2011 7:21am
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the game is rigged...EUR/USD has its own logic....when Aussie reduced rate it dropped 50 pips before stabilizing ...when EUR cuts rate it goes up 50 pips or even may be more to the upside of 150 pips....EUR is super currency...that moves with exotic logic..
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DragonFire
Dec 8, 2011 7:52am
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Quoting Guest
I think it is a trap as well. Generally when the rate cut, currency will depreciate. when US market open. Euro will drop
Guest,
EUR moves with a different set of logic....if EUR/USD stays below 1.3500 before European meeting finishes then it has 250 pips to the upside...but if it closes above 1.3565 then tomorrow is going to be very bloody for EUR..
I will SHORT if EUR/USD closes above 1.3565 today and go LONG if it starts below 1.3465 after a close...
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Sanguis
Dec 8, 2011 9:43am — Edited
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Quoting turanius
a way...I által említeni a napilapot ábra volt mikor mondtam megható a 21MA. és, ez nem fog visszamenni fent holnap, és a tartózkodás 1.3220-1.3260 kiegyenlítődhet holnap, és az emelkedés vasárnap az ázsiai ülés után történni fog miközben egy kevés reklámfogással hétfőn következik, jó hírek az EU csúcsról, melyik egy történet csak akkor természetesen hogy tartsa fenn a befektetőket, a bizalom az EU-Zone iránt pénzügyi és kincstári politika.
Friday onto closing 1, 6 will be. Not behead, if I am out.Excuse me. There was not sarcasm, but clerical error. 1,36 are my correct mouths.
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Sanguis
Dec 8, 2011 12:10pm
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Quoting kibescorp
You'd think people would have learned from LAST time that setting stop orders right before a major news event is incredibly stupid and will only put you in the WRONG trade.
Double bottom with two sprints opportunity yes. 1, 325 and 1,321 are his neighbourhoods. There worthy to risk onto long one with a limit around 1, 36.
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turanius
Dec 8, 2011 7:54am
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It only looks like it is...but you may know that the USD is affected with yout 80% by the EUR and GBP alone, and this is the only reason why it looks weak now, but wait about 1-1.5 hours and it will gain against any other currency...since EUR and (with it) GBP will weaken then.


Quoting DragonFire
USD is falling against any known currency on the block; may be only going up against Zimbabwe dollar…what a currency, USD?
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turanius
Dec 8, 2011 9:31am
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Yea, I can imagine, but this is the biggest mistake that most of us make, which is "Thinking".

Put the 10/21 MA in to your daily and 4H chart before such an event and see what they show...most probably (95%) the price will touch first the 21SMA first before it goes down, if the fundamental is bearish, and the 10SMA is below the 21...and vice versa.

Tomorrow you may see 1.3220 before it climbs up again to 1.34 level.


Quoting DragonFire
turanius,

You nailed this one....i really fall into this trap...but I having expecting global stocks to fall to send a message to EU leaders to forge ahead with some sort of agreement.how the stocks and EUR/USD will react tomorrow is in the open...they may made announcement after NY session...if that happens then it is a bad news but they have 48 hours to spin-off some issues before Asian session on Sunday...anyway we shall see what happens tomorrow...THE MOTHER OF ALL EU MEETINGS TO SOLVE DEBT CRISIS IS HAPPENING....
Reply
turanius
Dec 8, 2011 9:35am
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by the way...I was referring to the daily charts when I said touching the 21MA.

and, it will not go back up tomorrow, and may stay at 1.3220-1.3260 level tomorrow, and the rising will occur after the asian session on sunday, following monday with some "hype" good news from the EU summit, which of course is then only a story to maintain the investors confidence in the EU-Zone's monetary and fiscal policy.
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PipTrapper
Dec 8, 2011 7:19am
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Bullish as expected. Press conference will probably be bullish also.
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DragonFire
Dec 8, 2011 7:47am
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USD is falling against any known currency on the block; may be only going up against Zimbabwe dollar…what a currency, USD?
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Pleiadian
Dec 8, 2011 9:14am
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It was a Fake Break above market structure and a bull flag.
Quoting PipTrapper
Bullish as expected. Press conference will probably be bullish also.
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Pbh
Dec 8, 2011 7:25am
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Quoting PipTrapper
Bullish as expected. Press conference will probably be bullish also.
Yeap
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kibescorp
Dec 8, 2011 11:25am
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Looks the idiots crying bull didn't learn anything from November 3, the LAST rate cut.

The euro ALWAYS GOES DOWN IN THE END.

God.
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kibescorp
Dec 8, 2011 11:26am
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You'd think people would have learned from LAST time that setting stop orders right before a major news event is incredibly stupid and will only put you in the WRONG trade.
Reply
Sanguis
Dec 8, 2011 7:03am
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The louse and the nest maul each other. The fleabag is left over, who manages to do nothing.
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Sanguis
Dec 8, 2011 8:46am
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Was unambiguous, that down the direction will be. I say this already some days of his. Onto a weekend a short will be covering possibly with closing around 1, 36.
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Sanguis
Dec 8, 2011 8:55am
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Quoting PipTrapper
Bullish as expected. Press conference will probably be bullish also.
Falls because of this well.
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turanius
Dec 8, 2011 7:30am
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Don't be so sure about the EUR's logic...there are physical laws in forex as well, and it is only a trap!!! if you are long...I would close it if I were you!
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turanius
Dec 8, 2011 7:54am
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sorry for the typo:
yout = about
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jonahky7
Dec 8, 2011 7:55am
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I agree with draonfire. they always pre-amp calculated the bear or bull and add that a day before. so it's as dragonfire says - look at the events with bernard of fed everytime, i meant the day before.
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ssshhhh
Dec 8, 2011 8:01am
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someone said that the euro would rise???

really?
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Trader#CF90
Dec 8, 2011 8:19am
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a bit confused because of first reaction of EU.
why did it spike up....and now slumped...
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DragonFire
Dec 8, 2011 8:30am
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Quoting g_26b4377c
a bit confused because of first reaction of EU.
why did it spike up....and now slumped...

today's EUR/USD trap is to huge, moved almost 100 pips before falling 150 pips and continues going down...who is behind this? we may see it stabilizes at 1.3345...meaning tomorrow's 250 pips upwards is in cards..but after announcement it may dip 75 pips before the rally...
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Trader#3B56
Dec 8, 2011 11:59am
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when the rate cut, the bank lending option much cheaper, the gov will buy the the bond at cheap price and this will help to protect the euro..when the time comes, the euro will go up..maybe next year..look at the chart pattern..will be a double bottom on daily chart?we'll see..
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Trader#312F
Dec 8, 2011 7:06pm
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Come on, traders! Before conference it went up just to bounce off the 4H Bollinger (these bands usually work this way) and the target was ~1.3290 (+/-5 points), because it landed exactly on the downward channel lower border (which I expected to touch already one day before). Cannot you see it? All info is in the charts. Tomorrow, I expect it to spike up to H4 EMA(200) and bounce down again. By the way, daily upper Bollinger band is also a nice target. But trend is down, down, down :-( until it touches weekly lower Bollinger band or even monthly BB. And also remember that US fundamentals are even more screwed than that of EU's.
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Trader#BC78
Dec 8, 2011 7:00am
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what the...... is this?
y euro is going up??????????
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Trader#1299
Dec 8, 2011 7:07am
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Euro will drop
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Trader#4EEC
Dec 8, 2011 7:09am
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all game plan every week they try to provide autetry for euro zone. These are shy movements. i think it may touch 1.3when conferance start. lot of volatility will be there in next 1 hour.
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Trader#BEE4
Dec 8, 2011 7:11am
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why is the spike up always at this hour?
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Trader#8203
Dec 8, 2011 7:13am
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EUR would go down if IR would be decreased more than expected. Now there were not any news to weaken euro.
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Trader#437B
Dec 8, 2011 7:22am
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a little movement but have to waiting friday horrible might be cut such a 1% of this rate like a rumor today...wait and see, innit?
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Trader#1299
Dec 8, 2011 7:44am
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I think it is a trap as well. Generally when the rate cut, currency will depreciate. when US market open. Euro will drop
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Trader#1299
Dec 8, 2011 7:47am
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RSI show overbought. no sooner Euro will drop. long position should be close if you already gain
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Trader#EC6C
Dec 8, 2011 8:43am
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It's a rigged game. Upspike was to clear the stops of the shorts who anticipated the lowering of the base interest rate in Euro. The secret is in the moves BEFORE the announcements.
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