Legend
- High Impact Expected
- Med Impact Expected
- Low Impact Expected
- Non-Economic
Revision
- Green NumberBetter than forecast -or- revised better
- Red NumberWorse than forecast -or- revised worse
- m/mMonth Over Month
- q/qQuarter Over Quarter
- y/yYear Over Year
- K Thousand
- M Million
- B Billion
- T Trillion
EZ ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;
The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference, held 45 minutes later. Source changed release frequency from monthly to eight times per year as of Jan 2015;
- EZ Main Refinancing Rate Graph
- History
| Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.15% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
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- EZ Main Refinancing Rate News
From media.rabobank.com|36 hr agoThe ECB saw no reason to raise rates today, but policymakers hinted at a September rate hike. This remains our base case. We still believe that 2.50% marks the end of this hiking cycle, but developments in the Middle East increase the likelihood that the ECB is forced to implement additional tightening. If they do, that also raises the odds policymakers will have to reverse course next year, amidst weaker economic activity. The ECB’s assessment of the inflation outlook has not changed materially, despite the recent developments in ...
From think.ing.com|42 hr agoECB president Christine Lagarde’s comments at the press conference were a good illustration of how close a central bank can get to pre-committing without actually pre-committing. It’s obvious that the recent roller-coaster ride of energy prices has made the ECB both more hawkish but also cautious. Where there seemed to be very little need for an additional rate hike three weeks ago, with oil prices below $70/bbl, current oil prices of close to $100/bbl will make it hard for the ECB not to hike in September. Most important comments at ...
From msn.com|47 hr agoThe European Central Bank kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday but left room for more tightening in the coming months as a widening conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy prices again. The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.25% but said it was "closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects." The euro extended its falls and was last down 0.28% at $1.1378. Interest-rate sensitive two-year bond yields across the euro area held higher on the day, with German two-year ...
From cnbc.com|Jul 23, 2026The European Central Bank voted on Thursday to leave its main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, in a move that fell broadly in line with market expectations. But traders are already anticipating a rate hike in September, as ECB president Christine Lagarde warned renewed Middle East hostilities and the resultant rebound in oil prices poses upside risk to the euro zone inflation outlook. The ECB said it stands ready to adjust all of its interest rates to ensure that inflation stabilizes towards its 2% medium-term target. Eurozone ...
From @financialjuice|Jul 23, 2026ECB's President Lagarde: Urgent action is needed to strengthen the Euro-area economy MORE ECB'S LAGARDE: FORWARD-LOOKING INDICATORS SUGGEST MODEST GROWTH IN THE MEDIUM TERM #europeancentralbank #ecb #monetarypolicy #interestrates #inflation #energypriceshock #eurozone #christinelagarde Lagarde: Fiscal Responses To Energy Shock Should Be Tailored ECB's President Lagarde: Underlying inflation contained, full effect yet to play out ECB's President Lagarde: Longer energy prices stay high, the more likely to have second round impacts.
From youtube.com/ecbeuro|Jul 23, 2026|1 commentECB President Christine Lagarde explains the Governing Council's monetary policy decisions and answers questions from journalists at the Governing Council press conference held on Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 14:45 CEST in Frankfurt am Main.
From ecb.europa.eu|Jul 23, 2026|33 commentsThe Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. Ecb Interest Rate Decision (jul) Actual: 2.40% Vs 2.40% Previous; Forecast 2.40% Ecb Deposit Facility Rate (jul) Actual: 2.25% Vs 2.25% Previous; Forecast 2.25% Ecb Marginal Lending Facility Actual: 2.65% Vs 2.65% Previous; Forecast 2.65% ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path ECB: Outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to baseline of june Eurosystem staff projections and well above levels recorded prior to conflict in Middle East.
ECB keeps interest rates on hold, avoids rattling markets The European Central Bank just decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Through the rearview mirror, this decision clearly makes sense. Headline inflation has actually come down, there are very few signs of knock-on effects from higher energy prices, and the eurozone economy has shown some resilience to the current oil price shock. It’s only survey-based inflation expectations that have gone up and will be a concern for the ECB. Looking ahead, however, the decision of whether to keep interest rates unchanged is not so straightforward. In fact, the latest increase in energy prices has actually pushed the ECB closer to its more severe macro scenarios, calling for another rate hike – at least when following the ECB’s own logic and reaction function, presented at the June meeting. Unless oil prices start dropping significantly over the next weeks, the ECB’s own macro projections in September will call for another rate hike, loud and clear. Against this background, the ECB could have also opted for a rate hike today, following a 'never put off until tomorrow what you can do today' principle. Instead, it seems the central bank got cold feet and didn’t want to break the well-established tradition of never surprising markets that has developed in recent years.
From think.ing.com|Jul 23, 2026Despite another stretch higher in oil prices, markets are sticking to the view that the European Central Bank will hold the deposit rate at 2.25% at this meeting, in line with our own thinking. September is more likely to see a hike, and indeed markets are pricing in 23bp then. One could argue that front-loading another hike now makes sense. Over the past few years, however, the ECB has not acted without fully telegraphing a move in the weeks before the meeting. With longer-term inflation expectations still well-anchored, the ECB can ...
| Released on Jul 23, 2026 |
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