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ECB… Hawkish Hold
So let me get this straight ... the BoE cut rates 25 bps, but it was a HAWKish cut. The move was expected, but the comments were mixed. But it is looking increasingly clear that the MPC is done. A bit over an hour later, the ECB announced that it would leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%, the lowest since January 2023. And given the new staff projections, and President Lagarde's comments, this was a HAWKish hold. This was first evident with the Press Release, and the new Staff forecasts, which were released before the ECB head addressed the media. See the Table below (which uses Calibri font). As President ... (full story)
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Trader#8DC9
Dec 18, 2025 5:12pm
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From thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com | Dec 18, 2025
The decision to stay on hold was widely expected (unanimously so, as I was looking for) so that market attention was on the fresh staff forecasts and the related communication. In the end, the press conference yielded three interesting tidbits. But before moving on, time to haul my skeleton out of the closet: I had expected a last cut in March I now see ...
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Its updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term. The new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Councils interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of m ECB Holds Deposit Facility Rate At 2.00%; As Expected - Holds Main Refinancing Rate At 2.15% - Holds Marginal Lending Facility At 2.40% *ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH *ECB TO FOLLOW DATA-DEPENDENT, MEETING-BY-MEETING APPROACH *ECB RAISES ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR NEXT TWO YEARS ECB UPDATED ASSESSMENT RECONFIRMS THAT INFLATION SHOULD STABILISE AT THE 2% TARGET IN THE MEDIUM TERM.
From think.ing.com | Dec 18, 2025
We last had an ECB rate cut in June, and keeping interest rates unchanged for more than six months is sending a strong signal that it would need a severe downward shift in inflation and growth (expectations) to get the central bank into cutting mode again. In fact, the ECBs so-called good place is simply a neutral monetary policy stance. As noted, the ...