Waller: Probability of a recession seems to have disappeared

post: Bostic: Expecting Inflation to Decline but “Relatively Slowly,” Would Not Expect a Rate Cut Before the Fourth Quarter Bostic: Fed’s Highest Priority is to Get Inflation Back to 2% post: Bostic: “I Am Not in a Hurry” to Cut Rates; Want to Make Sure That Policy Easing is “Unambiguous” Bostic: Would Rather Wait Longer for a Rate Cut to Be Sure Inflation Does Not Start to Bounce Around post: BOSTIC: CAUTION NEEDED ON FIRST CUT, STILL BACKS ONE IN Q4

Thank you, Adam, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 The Peterson Institute is renowned for its valuable contributions to research and its influence on economic policy. There really is no better place for a central banker to come and talk about the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. It truly is a pleasure to be here. Peterson was also the host for my first speech as a governor back in early 2021, which unfortunately, was virtual.2 So, after an eventful three years, it's nice to be back and in person. After a run of great data in the latter half of 2023, it seemed that significant progress on inflation would continue and that rate cuts were not far off. However, the first three months of 2024 threw cold water on that outlook, as data on both inflation and economic activity came in much hotter than anticipated. Initially it seemed like the bad data might be simply a "bump" in the road, but as the data continued to point in the wrong direction, the narrative quickly turned towards concerns that the economy was not cooling as needed to keep inflation moving down toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent goal. Progress on inflation appeared to have stalled and there were fears that it might even be accelerating. Suddenly, the public debate became whether monetary policy was restrictive enough and if rate hikes should be back on the table. But more recent data on the economy indicate that restrictive monetary policy is helping to cool off aggregate demand and the inflation data for April suggests that progress toward 2 percent has likely resumed. Central bankers should never say never, but the data suggests that inflation isn't accelerating, and I believe that further increases in the policy rate are probably unnecessary. Now let me turn to the data we have post: Fed’s Waller: Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Suggests Some Consumers Under Stress Fed’s Waller: Will Be Closely Watching How Private Domestic Final Purchases Fares Into Second Quarter Waller: Economy Seems to Be Evolving Closer to What the Fed Expected post: Fed’s Waller Says He Needs to See Several More Months of Good Inflation Data Before Being Comfortable to Support an Easing in Policy Fed’s Waller: April Inflation Data Suggests Progress Toward 2% Target Has Likely Resumed, but Progress Was Modest post: WALLER: INFLATION 'NOT ACCELERATING,' RATE HIKE ISN'T NECESSARY