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  • Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)

    From bea.gov

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on May 30, 2024. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected ... (full story)

Added at 8:34am

  • GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, less than expected

    From cnbc.com

    U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year as consumer spending rose at a slower pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 2.4% following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the previous period. Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.142.179
Last 3 qtrs.. 4.9.....3.4.....1.6... Washington... we have a problem !
good
Follow price direction
Quoting Guest
Last 3 qtrs.. 4.9.....3.4.....1.6... Washington... we have a problem !
Its in line with the numbers out yesterday that was also to the weak side. Notably the cutting of staff reported yesterday.
Did the gdp will contract
Big miss.


Growth in Real GDP in Q1 2024 is primarily due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending

There was an increase in residential fixed investment, led mainly by brokers' commissions and new single-family housing construction.

Nonresidential fixed reflected growth in intellectual property products and an increase in compensation of state and local government employees.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.1%, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index went up by 3.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE index increased 3.7%.


GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024. This is a deceleration from the fourth quarter of 2023, where it increased by 3.4%.

Increases in fixed investment was partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. A decline in inventory investment can indicate that businesses are reducing their stockpiles, possibly due to lower consumer demand or in anticipation of a slowdown in sales. The sectors most affected by this were wholesale trade and manufacturing.

Even though there was an increase in consumer spending, there was a notable decrease in spending on goods, especially motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
So food/energy PCE went up SLOWER than the rest? Well, that isn't very comforting. Must be the big reason for the hot to equities.

The rest would suggest a slowing economy and, therefore, INCREASE the chance the FED cuts, thus lifting the market....
Economy is strong and resilient.

Nice trend though... if GDP continues the trend, then the next Q should be around 0% (no growth).
Quoting Whatevs
Economy is strong and resilient. Nice trend though... if GDP continues the trend, then the next Q should be around 0% (no growth).
If the US is in such shambles, why is USD spiking on this "horrible" news. More to this story somewhere between the lines...

"GDP: Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;"

So much for the latter statement, eh?
Quoting ffghost
{quote} If the US is in such shambles, why is USD spiking on this "horrible" news. More to this story somewhere between the lines... "GDP: Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;" So much for the latter statement, eh?
Could be to lure some liquidity into the system. It may well be that US economy is slowing but look at the alternatives. Its worse.
Quoting Banditten
{quote} Could be to lure some liquidity into the system. It may well be that US economy is slowing but look at the alternatives. Its worse.
This is the real answer, no doubt. But, since the world (ESPECIALLY the trading world) is based on relativism, then the US is still "strong and resilient" (despite whatevs sarcastic remarks)

....those is equity futures I own on the other hand
Agreed I think USD is still the more lucrative looking economy in comparison to the lot. I feel like we are potentially gearing up for a slightly higher PCE tomorrow but that's just my opinion at the moment. Let's see what happens.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Momofrmnyc
I feel like we are potentially gearing up for a slightly higher PCE tomorrow but that's just my opinion at the moment. Let's see what happens.
Yup. I agree we should see PCE tick up. The forecast (and prior) of 0.3% m/m is too high of a monthly value for the Fed to justify the narrative of inflation coming back down to 2%, at least anytime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a hot release tomorrow. Anything higher than 0.3% would impact Fed cut expectations and trigger some moves across the dollar and USD-denominated assets.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting Momofrmnyc
Agreed I think USD is still the more lucrative looking economy in comparison to the lot. I feel like we are potentially gearing up for a slightly higher PCE tomorrow but that's just my opinion at the moment. Let's see what happens.
Yeah, I, too, hope that is the case. Similar to how goog/msft dropped on the meta news. However, a bad print there and this thing will just accelerate. Gives the bears too much leverage.

Fun times we live in. Miss earnings (TSLA), go up 15%. Beat earnings (meta), drop 20%. GDP drop (should crater confidence in the currency), but USD increases.

What's the Ghostbusters quote??
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Yeah, I, too, hope that is the case. Similar to how goog/msft dropped on the meta news. However, a bad print there and this thing will just accelerate. Gives the bears too much leverage. Fun times we live in. Miss earnings (TSLA), go up 15%. Beat earnings (meta), drop 20%. GDP drop (should crater confidence in the currency), but USD increases. What's the Ghostbusters quote??
Musk will say anything to boost the pricing. It started out as a car manufacturer then became a tech company and now its an AI thing. Soon its the driving version of gold.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.115.63
All other news were hot, except GDP q/q. USD is bullish. Core PCE came at 3.7%.
The expansion of the United States economy was driven by a variety of factors.

Increased consumer spending, residential and nonresidential fixed investments, and state and local government spending played a significant role in this growth.

However, these gains were partially offset by a decrease in private investment in inventories, while imports showed an overall increase.

This complex intertwining of factors highlights the complexity of the economic scenario.
Let us be green
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