Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 19–20, 2024

gold down us dollar up. Biden needs oil to come down now

So, has anyone managed to put it in GPT chat to see what we really have?

Few months away from Election these guys will do and say whatever they are told, i dont trust any of it, the US economy is in a different state weekly(not actually), its like a massive forrest fire they are putting out with buckets of water so the people living near by dont know what is coming, nearly every meeting is the same BS just to buy more time, there is never anything definitive or concrete, its always we need to wait, we need more time , ye you need until November and then Trump will probably axe the lot of you.

@leafarct

Impact on the US Stock Market:

The cautious but optimistic economic outlook, coupled with easing financial conditions and robust equity market performance, particularly in tech sectors, may continue to support the U.S. stock market. However, concerns about the regional banking sector's challenges and potential adjustments in monetary policy could introduce volatility. The anticipation of future policy rate cuts, albeit later and smaller than previously expected, may also influence market sentiment and valuations, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors.

Impact on the USD Currency:

The upward adjustment in policy rate expectations and the plan to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff reflect a tighter monetary policy stance than previously anticipated, which could support the USD in the short term. However, the cautious approach to reducing the balance sheet size and the emphasis on achieving a smooth transition to ample reserve balances may limit any sharp appreciation in the USD. The continued monitoring of inflation and economic growth projections, along with adjustments in monetary policy, will be crucial for the USD's trajectory.

Overall, the FOMC meeting minutes suggest a careful balancing act by the Federal Reserve, aiming to manage inflation and support economic growth while navigating financial market developments. The impact on the stock market and USD currency will largely depend on how these policy adjustments align with evolving economic data and market expectations.

Analysis of the March 19-20, 2024 FOMC Minutes and Future Scenarios
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of March 19-20, 2024 provide a detailed look at discussions on the current economic situation and future expectations, informing US monetary policy. Maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5% reflects a cautious approach to economic uncertainty and inflationary risks.

Main Points of the Minutes:

Economy and Inflation: The US economy continues to expand at a solid pace, with strong job gains and a low unemployment rate. Although inflation has decreased over the last year, it remains high. The FOMC notes significant progress toward the 2% inflation objective, while acknowledging that the latest inflation data was firmer than expected.

Interest Rate Expectations: The Committee signals that the interest rate may have reached its peak in this tightening cycle and anticipates the possibility of moving policy to a less restrictive stance later this year, depending on economic developments.

Balance Sheet Reduction: Discussions about slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction indicate a prudent approach, with most participants favoring an imminent slowdown in the pace of reduction.

Scenarios and Probabilities:
Short term:

Monetary Policy Stability: In the near term, the FOMC is likely to keep the federal funds rate stable given inflation still above target and solid economic performance. Probability: High

Inflation Monitoring: Given continued concerns about inflation, the FOMC will likely remain vigilant, with monetary policy adjustments dependent on future data. Probability: Moderate

Mid-term:

Easing Monetary Policy: There is a clear possibility of reducing the target range for the federal funds rate in the medium term if confidence in a sustainable inflation path to 2% increases, without harming employment. Probability: Moderate

Balance Sheet Deceleration: The slowdown in balance sheet drawdown is expected to continue, alleviating potential money market pressures and offering greater flexibility to the FOMC. Probability: High

Conclusion:
The March 2024 FOMC minutes emphasize cautious, date-dependent policy, balancing the fight against inflation with supporting economic growth. Expectations of future interest rate reductions and balance sheet adjustments reflect an openness to adapt monetary policy as new data becomes available. Maintaining the current rate indicates a commitment to achieving sustainable 2% inflation while maintaining strong employment even in the face of significant economic uncertainty.


You're welcome, I'm at your disposal

In a scale where 100% is strongly bullish for USD, 50% is neutral (neither bullish nor bearish), and 0% is strongly bearish, the stance based on the FOMC meeting minutes might be placed around 60-65%. This suggests a cautiously optimistic or mildly bullish view on the USD, recognizing the balanced but slightly positive outlook indicated by the Fed's current stance and economic observations, tempered by the caution expressed over inflation and financial stability concerns.

Powell you made this bed, so lie in it.

The FED sounding more and more like BOJ - no definitive decisions or direction. If inflation is high hold rates and be clear about it. So many mixed signals ffs.

Mental deta

Hey, these folks know their job very well. They won't be clear about interest rate thing until Dxy reaches a Very KEY SUPPLY ZONE. Dollar will climb higher and higher until the time of cutting interest rate. That is may