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Capital Markets are Calm though Anxiety Continues to Run High
The risk that the war in Israel spreads remains palatable, and several observers have warned of the greatest risks of a world war in a generation. Still, the capital markets remain relatively calm. The US dollar is softer after closing last week firmly. The only G10 currency unable to post corrective upticks today is the Swiss franc. Among emerging market currencies, the Polish zloty has been boosted by the pro-EU election results, and the Mexican peso lead the complex. Gold, which rallied 3.4% at the end of last week, is seeing its gains pared by nearly 0.9% today and the yellow metal is straddling the $1916 area. ... (full story)
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Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that firms expect their sales growth to be subdued over the next 12 months. This slowdown in demand is reducing capacity pressures and weighing on businesses’ plans for investment and employment. Although cost and pricing pressures continue to moderate, they are still expected to be higher than normal in the coming year. Firms’ inflation expectations edged down but remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Many expect returning inflation to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target will take longer than three years. Overview • Firms reported that economic activity has slowed across a broad range of indicators. Their expectations for sales growth—especially sales to domestic customers—continued to moderate. • Roughly half of businesses said that their pricing practices are not yet back to normal. On balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID‑19 pandemic. But they expect to raise their selling prices at a slower rate than in the past 12 months as the pace of increases in their input costs slows.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 • Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. The gap between perceptions of inflation and actual inflation is unusually wide. This is likely because many consumers form their views based on their own shopping experience. Households with a large gap expect high price growth for essentials like food and housing. • Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high. Many people think increases in interest rates are raising the cost of living and keeping inflation high. • The growing cost of living remains the most pressing concern for consumers. High inflation and rising interest rates have had a negative financial impact on most households and are causing more households than last quarter to reduce spending. post: SEPARATE BOC Q3 SURVEY ON CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SHOWS 55% OF CANADIANS EXPECT A RECESSION THE NEXT YEAR, UP FROM 50% IN Q2 #News #Markets #CANADIAN #BOC #live post: Canada Business Outlook At Weakest Level Outside Recessions - Canada Firms See Fewer Hiring Shortages, Lower Wage Gains - Consumer Expectations For Wage Growth Reach A Record High
Good morning. My thanks to the Mortgage Bankers Association for the opportunity to be part of your annual convention and to Chair-elect Laura Escobar for that introduction. And, with that, welcome to the City of Philadelphia and the Third Federal Reserve District. I am honored to share this podium with my fellow speakers and to provide my outlook for economic conditions moving forward. But before I do that, there is one piece of business to which I must attend, and that is the usual Federal Reserve disclaimer: The views I express are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. Or, if I may give the Cliffs Notes version: When recounting my remarks, please just say, “Pat said,” not “The Fed said.” Let me put it plainly: I stand here this morning fully aware of the mood in this room. And I am also fully aware of the way the acti post: FED'S HARKER: **SAYS CURRENT INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT DRAINING HOUSING MARKET OF NEW BUYERS **REITERATES U.S. CENTRAL BANK VERY LIKELY DONE WITH RATE HIKES
Safe-haven assets such as gold and the US Dollar have experienced a substantial upswing in response to the deepening Middle East conflict. As tensions escalated on the ...
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- Posted: Oct 16, 2023 10:49am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,500