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Mann: Inflation models and research: distilling dynamics for monetary policy decision-making
Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns. It is reasonable for people to wonder: How can monetary policy be set correctly if the forecast misses are so large? But, this has been an unprecedented time with a series of shocks and subsequent evolution of the macroeconomy that present significant challenges to forecasting inflation. Our toolbox for economic assessment includes multiple models, but some have been estimated over time periods without major shocks or surges in inflation, and those forecasts ... (full story)
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BoE’s Mann: If I Am Wrong Inflation and Economy Drop More Significantly, I Won’t Hesitate to Cut Rates
— *seven (@sevenloI) September 11, 2023
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BoE’s Mann: Risky Bet That Inflation Expectations Are Sufficiently Well-Anchored and That We Can Wait for Core Inflation to Ease
— *seven (@sevenloI) September 11, 2023
BoE’s Mann: Idea That 3% Inflation’s “Close Enough” Cannot Be BoE’s Guide
BoE’s Mann: Neutral Nominal Rate is Likely to Be Higher Than in the Past