Janet also felt very good after having Chinese magic mushrooms during her visit there.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she is “feeling very good” about the U.S. making a soft economic landing without a recession. “I am feeling very good about that prediction,” Yellen told Bloomberg when asked whether the U.S. would avoid a recession while still containing inflation. “I think you’d have to say we’re on a path that looks exactly like that.” While inflation has dropped since its peak of 9.1 percent last June, it ticked up for the first time this year in July at 3.2 percent. This was the first increase after 13 months of falling inflation, but that does not mean high inflation rates ... (full story)
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were largely stable, rising slightly at the short- and longer-term horizons, and falling slightly at the medium-term horizon. Income growth perceptions declined in August, and job loss expectations rose sharply to its highest level since April 2021. Perceptions about current credit conditions and expectations about future conditions both deteriorated. Households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future also deteriorated. The main findings from the August 2023 Survey are: Inflation Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly in August, both increasing by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively. Conversely, three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) increased at the one-year-ahead horizon and decreased at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons. Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—was unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon and decreased at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%, its highest reading since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for respondents unde tweet: NY FED: AUGUST ONE-YEAR AHEAD EXPECTED INFLATION AT 3.6% VS JULY’S 3.5% tweet: NY FED: AUGUST THREE-YEAR AHEAD EXPECTED INFLATION AT 2.8% VS JULY’S 2.9%. tweet: NY FED: RECORD NUMBER OF CONSUMERS SAID CREDIT NOW HARDER TO GET #News #Markets #live tweet: NY FED: AUGUST FIVE-YEAR AHEAD EXPECTED INFLATION AT 3% VS JULY’S 2.9%
Despite much anticipation of de-dollarisation trends and a new world order, the dollar exits the summer season in rude health. The clear driver remains a surprisingly strong US ...
Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns. It is reasonable for people to wonder: How can monetary policy be set correctly if the forecast misses are so large? But, this has been an unprecedented time with a series of shocks and subsequent evolution of the macroeconomy that present significant challenges to forecasting inflation. Our toolbox for economic assessment includes multiple models, but some have been estimated over time periods without major shocks or surges in inflation, and those forecasts effectively assume that quiescent conditions will re-emerge. Most are linear and symmetric and skimp on price-setting or wage-setting fundamentals, which may be reflected as time-varying and state-dependency in inflation dynamics. Some implicitly assume, and others are agnostic about, the stability of monetary policy transmission through financial markets, even as inflation rates and central bank hikes have been the most dramatic in a generation. No single model can incorporate all these important questions about the inflation process today. But, central bank researchers have risen to the challenge of producing research that does address many of these tweet: BoE Mann: I Would Rather Err on the Side of Over-Tightening tweet: BoE’s Mann: If I Am Wrong Inflation and Economy Drop More Significantly, I Won’t Hesitate to Cut Rates tweet: BoE’s Mann: Risky Bet That Inflation Expectations Are Sufficiently Well-Anchored and That We Can Wait for Core Inflation to Ease BoE’s Mann: Idea That 3% Inflation’s “Close Enough” Cannot Be BoE’s Guide BoE’s Mann: Neutral Nominal Rate is Likely to Be Higher Than in the Past
For the first time in a long while, the combination of a weak real economy and slowing underlying inflation has left investors unsure about tightening prospects at this week’s ECB ...
After several weeks of relentless selling, the yen finally strengthened as much 1% versus the dollar before trimming the move after BOJ boss Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments: USDJPY ...
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights setups he's tracking into the open of the week. The targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.