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Three ways the Fed messed up
Today is hopefully the final rate hike from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Looking back, there are three ways the Fed messed up since 2021. First, Fed policy spin has been terrible. The Fed was right about transitory inflation in 2021 (it was transitory), but when inflation shifted to the wartime energy shock, the Fed failed to communicate the changes properly and its reputation suffered. Second, the June 2022 policy errors elevated the importance of consumer price data (emphasizing fictional prices), tore up years of trust in forward guidance, and did so on the basis of a data point that was revised within days. ... (full story)