Date | 9:50pm | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | ||
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9:50pm | Actual | |||||||||
Mon May 20 | ||||||||||
Mon May 20 | 12:30am | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | -2.4% | 0.1% | 2.2% | ||||
All Day | CHF | Bank Holiday | ||||||||
All Day | EUR | French Bank Holiday | ||||||||
All Day | EUR | German Bank Holiday | ||||||||
5:00am | GBP | MPC Member Broadbent Speaks | ||||||||
7:30am | USD | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | ||||||||
All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | ||||||||
8:45am | USD | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | ||||||||
9:00am | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | ||||||||
USD | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | |||||||||
10:30am | USD | FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks | ||||||||
2:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Mester Speaks | ||||||||
8:30pm | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | -0.3% | -2.4% | ||||||
9:30pm | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||||
11:00pm | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 1.4% |
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Thank you, Mark, for the kind introduction, and good morning to all of you.1 I am happy to be here. Today, I will do three things. First, I'll share with you my current outlook for the US economy. Second, I'll discuss my thinking on the current stance of monetary policy. Third, I'll review the dynamics of housing prices which can feed into the persistence of inflation. My focus on housing price dynamic stems from the role housing plays in the American economy. For most families, a home is their largest-ever purchase and their most valuable asset. Capital markets professionals in real estate finance, like you, are crucial to the smooth operation of the housing sector. Families making housing decisions rely on a healthy and productive housing finance sector. The housing sector is also one of the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. As such, it's an important channel of monetary policy transmission. Understanding the various channels of monetary transmission is crucial to fulfillment of the dual mandate given to the Federal Reserve by the Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. This mandate guides my thinking about monetary policymaking. With that, I'll turn to my outlook for the US economy. Aggregate Economic Activity The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was reported to have increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. That was a moderation from a 3.4 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year. However, private domestic final purchases—which excludes inventory investment, government spending, and net exports and usually sends a clearer signal on underlying demand—grew 3.1 percent in the first quarter. That was about as strong as the second half of 2023. post: Fed's Jefferson: Policy Rate is in Restrictive Territory Jefferson: April’s Better Inflation Reading is Encouraging Jefferson: Long-Term Inflation Expectations Show Americans Believe Fed Will Make Good on 2% Inflation Goal
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post: Fed’s Jefferson: Important Not to Focus on Just One Data Point post: FED'S JEFFERSON: THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN QUITE RESILIENT. post: FED'S JEFFERSON: IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE CONTINUED JOB GROWTH WHILE DISINFLATION CONTINUES. post: FED'S JEFFERSON: IT IS APPROPRIATE TO RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL BALANCE SHEET.
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San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly told Axios on Friday that it's not clear whether inflation is definitively receding and there is no "urgency" to adjust interest rates. Why it matters: Inflation cooled for the first time in 2024 last month, relieving economists that progress might not have stalled out. But one month of data has not convinced Fed officials that price pressures are evaporating in a way that puts near-term interest rates back on the table. What they're saying: "Fortunately, policy is in a very good place. We are in what I call the ready position," Daly told Axios at the University of San Francisco. "We can adjust policy as we need to." • Earlier this month, the Fed acknowledged signs that progress on inflation had stalled. That's raised questions about whether decades-high interest rates might need to be pushed up further to wrestle inflation down. post: FED'S DALY: I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT INFLATION COMING DOWN SUSTAINABLY TO 2%. post: FED'S DALY: I EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN SHELTER INFLATION, JUST NOT RAPIDLY.
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post: FED'S MESTER: MONETARY POLICY IS RESTRICTIVE. post: Mester: April CPI Report Was Good News, but Too Soon to Tell What Path Inflation’s on Mester: Inflation Progress Stalled in First Three Months post: FED'S MESTER: RISKS THAT WE'RE TOO RESTRICTIVE HAVE GONE DOWN. post: Mester: Inflation Risks Are Tilted to Upside Mester: I Don’t Think About Potential Rate Cut in Terms of When post: FED'S MESTER: THERE'S NO RISK IN SPENDING MORE TIME GATHERING DATA ON INFLATION BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS STRONG.
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Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros (@MBForex) highlights the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.