{quote} Excellent welcome to the millionaires club.
Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness
Hello all,
I agree with many of the folks here, that the market is filled with a high degree off randomness. It makes our days more challenging, stressful, and exciting
Here are some of our analysis on the current market volatility that does exist, and where the trend is heading towards July.
US Dollar: The US dollar has been the beneficiary of recent Brexit related volatility. With Britain voting to exit the EU, downside risks to the global economy have increased and have forced the Fed to remain on the sidelines longer. While the June US payrolls report was exceptional and the US economy continues to outperform, most analysts project the Fed to raise rates only once this year. Despite the Fed remaining on the sidelines longer, the greenback is expected to gain further ground against the majors for the remainder of 2016. Bias bullish (stronger USD)
Canadian Dollar: Enhanced uncertainties about the global economy courtesy of Brexit should restrain commodity prices and hence the Canadian dollar. Adding to the loonies woes is a dovish Bank of Canada that may pre-empt measures to stimulate growth. Furthermore, the ballooning current account deficit, lacklustre unemployment and the dependence of foreign capital flows that could dwindle are likely to weigh on the loonie. Most expect the loonie to give back some of its recent gains and trade between 1.30 1.35 in the coming months. Bias bearish (weaker CAD)
Euro: The battle against deflation is far from over in Europe. Fundamentals in the Eurozone continue to remain weak and long-term inflation forecasts remain well under the 2% ECB threshold. While the Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines, the European Central Bank is poised to provide more stimulus to an already sputtering economy. Economic and political risks continue to be stacked against the euro and most expect the euro to weaken over the coming months. Bias bearish (weaker EUR)
Japanese Yen: The Brexit vote and global uncertainty has undone most of the work the BoJ has tried to accomplish with devaluing the yen in the first half of the year. The global uncertainties created by the Brexit vote has pushed the yen a whopping 10% higher in the month of June and is now flirting with a break of the 100 level against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is likely to ease policy in the months ahead in an attempt to devalue the yen. Bias bearish (weaker JPY)
British Pound: On June 23rd the UK voted to leave the EU. The referendum was the easy part. Exiting the EU will be a much more challenging process with economic implications that are likely to impact the UK economy for years to come. The immediate consequence of the vote has left the UK in a political vacuum and has already caused an aggressive repricing/downgrading of UK assets. Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to dramatically deteriorate forcing the BoE to add significant stimulus to fuel the economy. The GBP is likely to fall further in the coming months possibly reaching the mid to low 1.20s before stabilizing. Bias bearish (weaker GBP)
Mexican Peso: The Mexican Peso was severely impacted by the Brexit vote with the currency peaking at 19.52 before settling back in high-18 range. Although external developments have dominated the market for the last little while, domestic elements are likely to take hold over the coming months. MXN peso is expected to outperform as growth accelerates and the Banxico increases the fondeo rate possibly ahead of the Fed by the end of the year. Most analysts remain bullish on the MXN especially with the steady growth experienced in the US. Bias bullish (stronger MXN)
MTFX Analytics
Hope this is helpful, as I have learned quite a bit from the previous posts myself!
I agree with many of the folks here, that the market is filled with a high degree off randomness. It makes our days more challenging, stressful, and exciting
Here are some of our analysis on the current market volatility that does exist, and where the trend is heading towards July.
US Dollar: The US dollar has been the beneficiary of recent Brexit related volatility. With Britain voting to exit the EU, downside risks to the global economy have increased and have forced the Fed to remain on the sidelines longer. While the June US payrolls report was exceptional and the US economy continues to outperform, most analysts project the Fed to raise rates only once this year. Despite the Fed remaining on the sidelines longer, the greenback is expected to gain further ground against the majors for the remainder of 2016. Bias bullish (stronger USD)
Canadian Dollar: Enhanced uncertainties about the global economy courtesy of Brexit should restrain commodity prices and hence the Canadian dollar. Adding to the loonies woes is a dovish Bank of Canada that may pre-empt measures to stimulate growth. Furthermore, the ballooning current account deficit, lacklustre unemployment and the dependence of foreign capital flows that could dwindle are likely to weigh on the loonie. Most expect the loonie to give back some of its recent gains and trade between 1.30 1.35 in the coming months. Bias bearish (weaker CAD)
Euro: The battle against deflation is far from over in Europe. Fundamentals in the Eurozone continue to remain weak and long-term inflation forecasts remain well under the 2% ECB threshold. While the Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines, the European Central Bank is poised to provide more stimulus to an already sputtering economy. Economic and political risks continue to be stacked against the euro and most expect the euro to weaken over the coming months. Bias bearish (weaker EUR)
Japanese Yen: The Brexit vote and global uncertainty has undone most of the work the BoJ has tried to accomplish with devaluing the yen in the first half of the year. The global uncertainties created by the Brexit vote has pushed the yen a whopping 10% higher in the month of June and is now flirting with a break of the 100 level against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is likely to ease policy in the months ahead in an attempt to devalue the yen. Bias bearish (weaker JPY)
British Pound: On June 23rd the UK voted to leave the EU. The referendum was the easy part. Exiting the EU will be a much more challenging process with economic implications that are likely to impact the UK economy for years to come. The immediate consequence of the vote has left the UK in a political vacuum and has already caused an aggressive repricing/downgrading of UK assets. Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to dramatically deteriorate forcing the BoE to add significant stimulus to fuel the economy. The GBP is likely to fall further in the coming months possibly reaching the mid to low 1.20s before stabilizing. Bias bearish (weaker GBP)
Mexican Peso: The Mexican Peso was severely impacted by the Brexit vote with the currency peaking at 19.52 before settling back in high-18 range. Although external developments have dominated the market for the last little while, domestic elements are likely to take hold over the coming months. MXN peso is expected to outperform as growth accelerates and the Banxico increases the fondeo rate possibly ahead of the Fed by the end of the year. Most analysts remain bullish on the MXN especially with the steady growth experienced in the US. Bias bullish (stronger MXN)
MTFX Analytics
Hope this is helpful, as I have learned quite a bit from the previous posts myself!
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- Hidden for breach of Trader Code of Conduct
- #448
- Jul 12, 2016 10:09am Jul 12, 2016 10:09am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,942 Posts
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
- #450
- Jul 12, 2016 10:33am Jul 12, 2016 10:33am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,942 Posts
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
- #452
- Jul 12, 2016 10:53am Jul 12, 2016 10:53am
- Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,082 Posts
(.)(.) think first ...
- #453
- Jul 12, 2016 10:55am Jul 12, 2016 10:55am
- Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,082 Posts
{quote} PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS its a fools game and you will lose a lot of money. There is no need to guess or gamble as traders we never want to gamble we want to make logical decisions based on facts and understanding how markets work and who is moving them. Many times after new information hits the market there will be an initial reaction that you will miss and thats perfectly fine because once the initial frenzy of all the Algo's has stopped the reaction will continue and this is when you will catch huge moves. Remember I told you all.... you...
(.)(.) think first ...
- #459
- Edited 11:02am Aug 14, 2016 9:51am | Edited 11:02am
- | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Analyst | 3,688 Posts
