NYSE & Nasdaq

This is most certainly true, but is the market irrationally priced at 17x earnings w/ interest rates held artificially low (and likely to be held this low for another 2yrs or so?) and alternative investments no cheaper?

Is it just a case that US Equities are the best house on a bad block?

Or are you just arguing that certain stocks are irrationally high and in bubble territory?

Buffet commented a few months back that the market is fairly valued.

I also remember him saying that investors are best advised to buy when markets are undervalued, hold when fairly valued and sell when over valued. This saying was old, he now believes that it is best to hold for ever when you have stocks that are true outliers.

Anyhow, we are swinging towards the the other end of the pendulum, we are not yet at an extreme but that doesn't make the market safe. I have noticed that animal spirits are just starting to manifest. I don't sense much greed yet but I did take note of a few signs namely:

1. Organic growth in earnings is slowing down, most growth in revenues is fueled by record stock buybacks and M&A activity.
2. Creditors are becoming more keen to go down the risk spectrum to lend to people they wouldn't have a year ago. Skepticism on the financial sector and extreme caution should however prevent any meltdown. We are only at the beginning of the lending cycle.

These forces have forced me to remain long but cautiously so. We are not at an extreme yet and no one can predict when that happens.

Last post 2014. Ouch. Reminds me of Pulp Fiction...

Thread's Dead baby. Thread's dead.

Calm before the storm...

From my blog:


Time for a bite of APPLE
Apple is very overextended on the 30 min chart. It's currently 370 candles from the 200sma, which is statistically way too many. Looking at the daily chart, it bounced off the daily 200 sma on Monday. Today it fell initially before rallying for the last few hours. I'm looking for a retrace, and if it fell past today's low, I'd be selling looking for a target of previous resistance just above $107.

From my blog:


McDonalds short? I'm loving it!
McDonalds (MCD) has been above the 200sma on the 30 min chart for three hundred 30min periods, which is statistically too many and there's bearish divergence on the weekly chart. It's had a fantastic run since last October, and I now like to plan for a short term retrace. If it can fall back past Friday's low and come out of over bought on the daily RSI, I'm looking to sell back down to previous resistance at about 124.80. If it can push up a bit first for a better entry, even better.